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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Still looks pretty chilly or as best average temperatures in middle and long range. I don't get why everybody is talking about high pressure building up over UK/South scandinavia since it only gives us northerly winds with 0 degrees in 850hpa.

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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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7 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Still looks pretty chilly or as best average temperatures in middle and long range. I don't get why everybody is talking about high pressure building up over UK/South scandinavia since it only gives us northerly winds with 0 degrees in 850hpa.

GFS shows the potential for much warmer conditions beyond mid month especially in Southern and Eastern areas with high pressure anchored to the East. This also ties in with some of the more senior forecasters thoughts... With this scenario much warmer conditions will become likely especially given the time of year... 

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

GFS shows the potential for much warmer conditions beyond mid month especially in Southern and Eastern areas with high pressure anchored to the East. This also ties in with some of the more senior forecasters thoughts... With this scenario much warmer conditions will become likely especially given the time of year... 

Much warmer as in 15-18 degrees celsius (average temperatures) or 20-25 like a mini heatwave? Can't see the last thing

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7 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Much warmer as in 15-18 degrees celsius (average temperatures) or 20-25 like a mini heatwave? Can't see the last thing

That's quite bizzare! We have already had temps above 20c on a few occasions this year and it's still early May! If we get under the influence of high pressure going forward, temps will quickly climb above 20c in lengthy sunny spells, baring in mind the sun is now gaining strength daily.... You appear to be looking at things with a glass half empty philosophy! 

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16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It must be said though, that the FV3's take, on the 15th, is a tad worrying: just how long can that wretched feed of grot go on

Tbh Pete, I think the reason some are panicking is due to firstly... How good its been so far this year, and secondly.... How great it was this time last year! We was never gonna repeat last year to a T. Each year has different ideas... We have plenty of time for warm conditions to take hold. Whatever which way you look at things and how some folk Interpratate things, it's still Spring... And it will be for another 3 and half weeks!! Hail summer..... Long live summer....?

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The 06Z GEFS ensembles have appeared -- the op's a bit of a stinker TBH:

image.thumb.png.cf1b59ed43c7f0984434e23d3971d2d0.pngimage.thumb.png.579bc9f89b2ffaf99ce78d1b37b8530c.png                                                                                   image.thumb.png.d3acaefb62df46a190509efa0f57c121.png  

 

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The GEFS 6z mean looks a lot more settled from T+168 hours until T+300+ although there is some suggestion of shallow troughs bringing a risk of heavy showers later.

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One day we will get this setup during the winter?,no sign of it warming up yet,and could be heavy snowfall in the highlands midweek.

 

Amazingly clean air,great for photography.

 

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Although far from seasonal, we mustn't forget that northerlies aren't uncommon this side of the year. This type of pattern brings May 2005 to my mind - often northerly until midmonth, then a transition to warmer conditions via a very wet spell from the 18th-24th.

image.thumb.png.b760b8c2fa3a29781c8d47c144ee5805.png image.thumb.png.06f734d0ae68c617192802ed215566f1.png image.thumb.png.e00a326733aae8f294cdf521eec26878.png image.thumb.png.7067a6fc0e560a56ab17442fd89606a4.png 

I think patience might be the word this May. The final chart a huge difference in temperature between London and Edinburgh!

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Northern Blocking looks set to hold out into June, which is reminiscent of a very wet and cool summer. Periods in mid May when the weather looks to start becoming more settled again, however this settled weather looks likely to end going into May 21st on the GFS. If this does hold out into June, we might be in for a bit of a disaster here people, a certain Scottish band comes to mind (Wet Wet Wet). Still quite a while off but I’m losing hope quickly. No sign of warmth in May really, and I think May could be the first below average month in 14 months

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3 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

Northern Blocking looks set to hold out into June, which is reminiscent of a very wet and cool summer. Periods in mid May when the weather looks to start becoming more settled again, however this settled weather looks likely to end going into May 21st on the GFS. If this does hold out into June, we might be in for a bit of a disaster here people, a certain Scottish band comes to mind (Wet Wet Wet). Still quite a while off but I’m losing hope quickly. No sign of warmth in May really, and I think May could be the first below average month in 14 months

So, you are saying is that this May, so far, has a lot in common with those of 1975, 1983 and 1995?:oldgrin:

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, you are saying is that this May, so far, has a lot in common with those of 1975, 1983 and 1995?:oldgrin:

Sorry for my language, but I bloody hope so ??

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2 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

Northern Blocking looks set to hold out into June, which is reminiscent of a very wet and cool summer. Periods in mid May when the weather looks to start becoming more settled again, however this settled weather looks likely to end going into May 21st on the GFS. If this does hold out into June, we might be in for a bit of a disaster here people, a certain Scottish band comes to mind (Wet Wet Wet). Still quite a while off but I’m losing hope quickly. No sign of warmth in May really, and I think May could be the first below average month in 14 months

Just where do you get this kind of a conclusion from!?? One set of GFS output!!! Honestly..... Losing faith!!! It's May 5th....you need to get a grip here, this smacks of mild and wet on the 1st of November, and people starting to suggest winter is over.... This is getting tedious.... 

youre-wrong-believe.jpg

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UKMO T144 settling down, with potential for warm air advection courtesy the low to the west.

image.thumb.jpg.9ae85b4f61e5b738acbbe12f12406816.jpg

ICON T180 looks like some kind of plume although heights to the east tentative:

image.thumb.jpg.4ee9c980c3ea8803b24a975cb3820f52.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f8f198584da6bbef60eaf18ce9b3b5dd.jpg

I'm sixth sensing an improvement from the 12z runs today, will it be borne out by the GEM and GFS, and ECM later?

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25 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Looking OK at day 10 Mike! Can't see what some of the recent gloom is about tbh ?

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gfs-0-264.png

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 A rather poor set of charts for anyone wanting anything appreciably warm though, jestream anchored to the south and a source of air from a cold NE direction. Things do look like settling down by next weekend, temps moving back to average.

The charts above suggest trough action from the NE, possibly alot of cloud as well.

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42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 A rather poor set of charts for anyone wanting anything appreciably warm though, jestream anchored to the south and a source of air from a cold NE direction. Things do look like settling down by next weekend, temps moving back to average.

The charts above suggest trough action from the NE, possibly alot of cloud as well.

As long has we are heading in the right direction though, it won't take long to import very warm air from the south with a few tweaks! And let's not forget at this stage, we are still in early May. ?

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30 minutes ago, Greggers said:

This is still spring, peeps stop wishing summer synoptics?

This is the problem when you get a 25c mini heatwave in April, the bar has suddenly been raised to high, and to early!! 

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