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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    The change is coming here on ECM, by by cool wet miserable stuff... 

    Ps... Your creasing me up Karl and Pete.. ?

    ECM1-168.gif

    ECM1-192.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I just took my TARDIS for a wee jaunt (two weeks' time out to be sufficient) and took some snaps of members' houses...One of them belongs to A252. Guess which one it is: Good luck!:oldgood:

    image.thumb.png.4fb5eee55847bf5ced3228d475e217d5.pngimage.thumb.png.c751771f83bbf60ba305cba7038762fc.pngimage.thumb.png.33003d2d49376e00901b8001470e99fd.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Much better than the Ecm 00z and actually that wasn't bad..this is going a similar way to last evening's stonking 12z and today's Gfs 12z with a stronger high pressure building from the south and then the main centre drifting slightly to the east enabling us to import warmer continental air.. I wanna see days 11 and 12!???

    192_mslp500.png

    216_mslp500.png

    240_mslp500 (1).png

    240_thickuk.png

    240_thick.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Really promising ECM T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.d4af0667d0343e919924500c802cb706.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.131adb4f7eff193ea680c03dd78a34cb.jpg

    Like the GFS earlier, this looks to set up a high pressure with potential to reload.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm next Weds runs the low 987mb est across northern France so a showery and windy day but in particular south of the border, But another cold day with temps well below normal, particularly in Scotland. By Thursday the trough is well to the east with the UK in a light northerly and with sunny intervals and showers and another very cold day in the north. The next Atlantic low arrives west of Ireland on Friday with the associated front across the south west. Temps still below average

    t102.thumb.png.1aa2a42383fef77050168ec47c160218.pngt126.thumb.png.06e779e16669a8eac4f85719b849d59a.pngt150.thumb.png.9cc530741527303040edefa164c18257.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The ECMimage.thumb.png.3e3b5c4c03733091cf1be59e848788d5.png  2lfemz.gif 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    The ECMimage.thumb.png.3e3b5c4c03733091cf1be59e848788d5.png  2lfemz.gif 

    Looking forward to the mean

    hidingbehindcouch.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM ensemble mean backs operational output strongly, the dry and sunny warm up around mid month looks to me to be more than the form horse....

    image.thumb.jpg.245b17823b31a18f2c80fdfc165d4f19.jpg

    Ignoring the details, for a mean chart it clearly places the ridge and trough.  Would portend (!) a period of warm settled weather, I would suggest.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Looking forward to the mean

     

    Pretty good, better than the 00z..hopefully a return of summery weather following the unsettled period from next midweek to the weekend!!?

    EDM1-192.GIF

    EDM1-216.GIF

    EDM1-240.GIF

    EDM0-240.GIF

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    I'm taking a cautionary approach to things at present. The current colder spell upgraded within the reliable timeframe, compared to what was looking plausible a few days ago, the ridge has held further west and hence allowed a longer colder synoptic pattern this though does seem a result a result of the final warming of the strat and shift in position of PV, and is atypical for this time of year albeit rather later than usual..

    The models are flip flopping alot at the moment beyond the 144hr timeframe, but hopefully will begin to settle in the days ahead - where the UK lies in terms of the downstream ridge set to arrive through mid-month remains to be seen.. it could sit directly overhead, to out south, to our east, to our north, or to our west - no clarity at present..

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    A continuation of the showery mix on Friday and another day of temps below average, particularly in Scotland  A not dissimilar day on Saturday but the aforementioned Newfoundland trough has intensified  and dropped into the western Atlantic promoting amplification of the subtropical high just to the west of the UK. Thus by Sunday the trough is relegated to the east as a ridge moves into the UK, Temps still below average.

    gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7576000.thumb.png.68e0b81cecf71bd766e55c0ef7b0f1af.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7662400.thumb.png.17bdcd6342682884eec1bc7ada6e2563.pnggfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7673200.thumb.png.bc883eab97f2b50d0f565e1cdf55b83b.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    A tad disappointing outlook this morning. The ECM and Gfs ops showing the high once again ridging in too early maintaining a cool northerly flow. The one plus point is it would be a drier northerly than currently and in sheltered southern and western parts it may still feel warmish. Towards the end of the ECM winds veer more easterly as we import slightly warmer air. Wonder if some tweaks over the coming days could push things back in favour of a more UK centred high.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
    45 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

    A tad disappointing outlook this morning. The ECM and Gfs ops showing the high once again ridging in too early maintaining a cool northerly flow. The one plus point is it would be a drier northerly than currently and in sheltered southern and western parts it may still feel warmish. Towards the end of the ECM winds veer more easterly as we import slightly warmer air. Wonder if some tweaks over the coming days could push things back in favour of a more UK centred high.

    just  looking at the fantasy world  models  cant see any big hot weather  coming looking rather cool and wet for late  may at the  moment

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    While the change next week is to be welcomed im a bit concerned the models seem keen on promoting HP becoming established to our north again longer term, this will leave us again at the mercy of a southerly tracking jet.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Mid week looks like a shocker at present heavy rain, strong winds for some and maybe even some snow in Scotland

    GFSOPUK00_87_17.thumb.png.043ef7300bf493d479f030134f3c41f5.pngGFSOPUK00_93_18.thumb.png.75d9043598544e47c24994150852dfe3.pngGFSOPUK00_87_19.thumb.png.3ffd3f686c62f124d105466dba1aa76b.png

    Things can only get better ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Back-end of the GFS still shows an overall improvement, as the Continent is warming all the while:

    image.thumb.png.e48aa6d90af03c1a10e2ea0ffbdf3114.pngimage.thumb.png.76620181372165cadb6d3f3755186fa1.png 

    The FV3 shows a similar evolution: 


    image.thumb.png.e3f0486b1b11b75fd836e6ab6bed4c27.pngimage.thumb.png.55358f60cce0fa0568f8a4bf173340d4.png

    IMO, given that it's Spring, the warmer air is always going to be favoured, even if the day-to-day details are moot?

    Ensembles:image.thumb.png.75036a6881af928cd7f445df63bda0a2.pngimage.thumb.png.c1d823d2ea355e4b99604db7235cf453.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    Mid week looks like a shocker at present heavy rain, strong winds for some and maybe even some snow in Scotland

    GFSOPUK00_87_17.thumb.png.043ef7300bf493d479f030134f3c41f5.pngGFSOPUK00_93_18.thumb.png.75d9043598544e47c24994150852dfe3.pngGFSOPUK00_87_19.thumb.png.3ffd3f686c62f124d105466dba1aa76b.png

    Things can only get better ?

    Some much needed rain there thankfully.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    All I'm currently seeing from ECM and GFS is a constantly changing forecast every day, a bit like the winter months really.... One day cold charts, the next..... Played down!! So I reckon CFS has nailed the pattern change by mid month...  Followed by some plumes in the final 3rd...

    cfs-0-216.png

    cfs-0-240.png

    cfs-0-264.png

    cfs-0-510.png

    cfs-2-528.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Hardly bad, is it? image.thumb.png.bbb3aff2fe8ddca9ba77aea82c488894.png                                                                              image.thumb.png.84bc10d5af89d032599caa6b2e09d0d9.png

                                image.png.61f38f894ea056f0e34146ccde25076c.png:aggressive::oldgood:

    And, here's how it ends:image.thumb.png.cbdd1f8b2911533b611a1815de5781b9.png

                                          image.thumb.png.1e9fed9792822a01a5a3e3e29d100b41.png

                                          image.thumb.png.0575948d610a48338e15b400d5df7480.png

     

     

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    A little bit of patience required has grasshopper stated!!! ? But I feel things slowly moving in the right direction from the 6z,and some potentially really warm conditions beyond mid month... Its all good... 

    gfs-0-192.png

    gfs-0-204.png

    gfs-1-360.png

    gfs-0-360.png

    SimilarTallCygnet-size_restricted.gif

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