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The change is coming here on ECM, by by cool wet miserable stuff... 

Ps... Your creasing me up Karl and Pete.. 😂

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ECM1-192.gif

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I just took my TARDIS for a wee jaunt (two weeks' time out to be sufficient) and took some snaps of members' houses...One of them belongs to A252. Guess which one it is: Good luck!:oldgood:

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Posted (edited)

Much better than the Ecm 00z and actually that wasn't bad..this is going a similar way to last evening's stonking 12z and today's Gfs 12z with a stronger high pressure building from the south and then the main centre drifting slightly to the east enabling us to import warmer continental air.. I wanna see days 11 and 12!👍🌞😁

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Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Really promising ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.d4af0667d0343e919924500c802cb706.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.131adb4f7eff193ea680c03dd78a34cb.jpg

Like the GFS earlier, this looks to set up a high pressure with potential to reload.

Edited by Mike Poole

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Aye, way better from next Sunday, more like it, Ed, my house Mornington House, Trim 00-01, I wish

 

 

ECM1-192.GIF?04-0

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The ecm next Weds runs the low 987mb est across northern France so a showery and windy day but in particular south of the border, But another cold day with temps well below normal, particularly in Scotland. By Thursday the trough is well to the east with the UK in a light northerly and with sunny intervals and showers and another very cold day in the north. The next Atlantic low arrives west of Ireland on Friday with the associated front across the south west. Temps still below average

t102.thumb.png.1aa2a42383fef77050168ec47c160218.pngt126.thumb.png.06e779e16669a8eac4f85719b849d59a.pngt150.thumb.png.9cc530741527303040edefa164c18257.png

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The ECMimage.thumb.png.3e3b5c4c03733091cf1be59e848788d5.png  2lfemz.gif 

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The ECMimage.thumb.png.3e3b5c4c03733091cf1be59e848788d5.png  2lfemz.gif 

Looking forward to the mean

hidingbehindcouch.png

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ECM ensemble mean backs operational output strongly, the dry and sunny warm up around mid month looks to me to be more than the form horse....

image.thumb.jpg.245b17823b31a18f2c80fdfc165d4f19.jpg

Ignoring the details, for a mean chart it clearly places the ridge and trough.  Would portend (!) a period of warm settled weather, I would suggest.  

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking forward to the mean

 

Pretty good, better than the 00z..hopefully a return of summery weather following the unsettled period from next midweek to the weekend!!👍

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EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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I'm taking a cautionary approach to things at present. The current colder spell upgraded within the reliable timeframe, compared to what was looking plausible a few days ago, the ridge has held further west and hence allowed a longer colder synoptic pattern this though does seem a result a result of the final warming of the strat and shift in position of PV, and is atypical for this time of year albeit rather later than usual..

The models are flip flopping alot at the moment beyond the 144hr timeframe, but hopefully will begin to settle in the days ahead - where the UK lies in terms of the downstream ridge set to arrive through mid-month remains to be seen.. it could sit directly overhead, to out south, to our east, to our north, or to our west - no clarity at present..

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Posted (edited)

Outlook - The current calmer and quite chilly weather will give way to more unsettled conditions next week as Atlantic troughs become more influential. But it will take a while for the cold air to mix out and temps remain below average , or thereabouts, for a while, albeit with regional variations.

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The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7014400.thumb.png.878f4c069c68576d6f23862842d29b2b.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.d0b93cb268e1ba8a5e3ca806e2f5ed76.gif03.thumb.gif.aaf1f53b11d36cc8828ec39cc4c2981e.gif

The fresh wind down the eastern regions has eased overnight and so with the clear skies a widespread frost to start the day. But once this quickly dissipates a sunny day for most and not unpleasant in the light airs. The odd shower may bubble up in central areas of England. But to the north an occlusion is tracking south, accompanied by a band of showery rain, with snow on the mountains, and will effect Scotland by late afternoon.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.3c5cd25e6da784c8f7f228bf4b38e06b.gif914223610_maxsu.thumb.png.75a46fbdeb405eaf6bfc272dd30fd536.png

The band of cloud and showery rain will continue to move south through this evening and overnight followed by wintry showers but a clear night once again elsewhere and another widespread frost

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Monday is a bit of a mixed bag with the occlusion straddling the country so cloudy with showers in the vicinity and showers more of the wintry variety further north in the colder air behind the front. Generally a day with temps again below average.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.eaaa21201864870104354b059962c567.gif1948912089_maxmo.thumb.png.624fd198e62e38f1714d20df56195abd.pngp15.thumb.png.93a006e263705d52c7fdd37e5f61fcbe.png

The weakening occlusion is still straddled across the country on Tuesday so another day of sunny intervals and showers but changes are afoot, The TPV is still over Scandinavia but the associated trough has taken on a negative tilt which facilitates movement of the Atlantic trough east.

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The complex surface low moves across southern England and France on Wednesday bringing with it some heavy rain and strong winds in many areas and a very varied temp distribution with warmer air creeping into the south for a time.

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By Thursday the upper trough dominates Europe, including the UK, and with a few surface features doted about, including a low of 989mb in the North sea, another day of sunshine and showers, perhaps thundery with hail in the mix, And these may well coalesce to give a more persistent spell of heavy rain in the north. Another cold day with temps below average. But it's worth noting here the intense upper trough around Newfoundland which has an important role to play shortly.

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Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

A continuation of the showery mix on Friday and another day of temps below average, particularly in Scotland  A not dissimilar day on Saturday but the aforementioned Newfoundland trough has intensified  and dropped into the western Atlantic promoting amplification of the subtropical high just to the west of the UK. Thus by Sunday the trough is relegated to the east as a ridge moves into the UK, Temps still below average.

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Edited by knocker

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The ecm not dissimilar to the gfs next weekend

t156.thumb.png.a2793282fdb448e3612930156ee99baa.pngt186.thumb.png.f7116484c0857c659ce6388782e5d9e2.png

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A tad disappointing outlook this morning. The ECM and Gfs ops showing the high once again ridging in too early maintaining a cool northerly flow. The one plus point is it would be a drier northerly than currently and in sheltered southern and western parts it may still feel warmish. Towards the end of the ECM winds veer more easterly as we import slightly warmer air. Wonder if some tweaks over the coming days could push things back in favour of a more UK centred high.

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45 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

A tad disappointing outlook this morning. The ECM and Gfs ops showing the high once again ridging in too early maintaining a cool northerly flow. The one plus point is it would be a drier northerly than currently and in sheltered southern and western parts it may still feel warmish. Towards the end of the ECM winds veer more easterly as we import slightly warmer air. Wonder if some tweaks over the coming days could push things back in favour of a more UK centred high.

just  looking at the fantasy world  models  cant see any big hot weather  coming looking rather cool and wet for late  may at the  moment

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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While the change next week is to be welcomed im a bit concerned the models seem keen on promoting HP becoming established to our north again longer term, this will leave us again at the mercy of a southerly tracking jet.

 

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Mid week looks like a shocker at present heavy rain, strong winds for some and maybe even some snow in Scotland

GFSOPUK00_87_17.thumb.png.043ef7300bf493d479f030134f3c41f5.pngGFSOPUK00_93_18.thumb.png.75d9043598544e47c24994150852dfe3.pngGFSOPUK00_87_19.thumb.png.3ffd3f686c62f124d105466dba1aa76b.png

Things can only get better 🤔

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Anyone noticed recently how often extended extended ecm and gem are in sync ? 

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Back-end of the GFS still shows an overall improvement, as the Continent is warming all the while:

image.thumb.png.e48aa6d90af03c1a10e2ea0ffbdf3114.pngimage.thumb.png.76620181372165cadb6d3f3755186fa1.png 

The FV3 shows a similar evolution: 


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IMO, given that it's Spring, the warmer air is always going to be favoured, even if the day-to-day details are moot?

Ensembles:image.thumb.png.75036a6881af928cd7f445df63bda0a2.pngimage.thumb.png.c1d823d2ea355e4b99604db7235cf453.png

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Mid week looks like a shocker at present heavy rain, strong winds for some and maybe even some snow in Scotland

GFSOPUK00_87_17.thumb.png.043ef7300bf493d479f030134f3c41f5.pngGFSOPUK00_93_18.thumb.png.75d9043598544e47c24994150852dfe3.pngGFSOPUK00_87_19.thumb.png.3ffd3f686c62f124d105466dba1aa76b.png

Things can only get better 🤔

Some much needed rain there thankfully.

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All I'm currently seeing from ECM and GFS is a constantly changing forecast every day, a bit like the winter months really.... One day cold charts, the next..... Played down!! So I reckon CFS has nailed the pattern change by mid month...  Followed by some plumes in the final 3rd...

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Posted (edited)

Hardly bad, is it? image.thumb.png.bbb3aff2fe8ddca9ba77aea82c488894.png                                                                              image.thumb.png.84bc10d5af89d032599caa6b2e09d0d9.png

                            image.png.61f38f894ea056f0e34146ccde25076c.png:aggressive::oldgood:

And, here's how it ends:image.thumb.png.cbdd1f8b2911533b611a1815de5781b9.png

                                      image.thumb.png.1e9fed9792822a01a5a3e3e29d100b41.png

                                      image.thumb.png.0575948d610a48338e15b400d5df7480.png

 

 

Edited by Ed Stone

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A little bit of patience required has grasshopper stated!!! 😉 But I feel things slowly moving in the right direction from the 6z,and some potentially really warm conditions beyond mid month... Its all good... 

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