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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There were indications from yesterday's models that we may exchange the northerly then trough dominated pattern to something warmer and ridge related or indeed southerly related towards next weekend and into middle of the month. Today less than convinced this will happen, yes indications again a ridge will travel up from the south, but quickly through the UK and heading north, hence an easterly flow off a not particularly warm continent and N Sea could occur and with cut off low to the SE, chance heights may migrate NW again and we come under the auspices of further northerly episode. We may be about to see a very northerly/easterly May.  

Nice to see an unbiased look at the upcoming possibilities. Great post. ?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just my honest unbiased opinion but to me it looks like the ukmo 12h is indicating a gradual change to unsettled next week.??

    UW96-21.gif

    UW120-21.gif

     

    UW144-21.gif

    F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS heading in a similar direction, Karl...at least according my own 'highly dispassionate' eyes!

    image.thumb.png.a71eb1af656f357cff73850da0e9a399.pngimage.thumb.png.ddfc0b0f64b00872869f6bf606f6e51f.png  :shok:

    It's a five-month-long blistering summer, Jim -- but not as we know it!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    This may raise a few eyebrows but I see an improvement coming jim..but not as we know it!!!??:shok:

    12_159_mslp500.png

    giphy (2).gif

    12_186_mslp500.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Beware of chimeras...unsettled weather has a new disguise!:gathering:

    image.thumb.png.248ca7d453d8e16c1702e1810d2fdd57.pngimage.thumb.png.b661c1faa2155bda56367b643c011cf1.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    In my unbiased opinion this looks settled..feel free to disagree!!??:shok:

    12_213_mslp500.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    In my unbiased opinion this looks settled..feel free to disagree!!??:shok:

    12_213_mslp500.png

    Agree Frosty!!!!!!!!!!!! just shame it's in silly range, keep 'em coming Frosty! the warm/settled ones that is

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    Better position of the high pressure ridging on the gfs 12z than the 6z centred more over the UK to bring about a change to warmer settled weather. Seems like we won't be able to avoid winds from a coolish direction but an easterly can bring in the warmth at this time of year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

     

    F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

    Karl, hope you don't mind my asking but...who exactly is this bloke you keep posting a GIF of?  More to the point, what are his meteorological credentials?  (I genuinely don't recognise this character!) 

    Anyway to the 12z runs and we are starting to get some consensus for high pressure building just after next weekend. T180 GEM ICON and GFS:

    image.thumb.jpg.6ea171caf13d189d8f77a3168dd535ea.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.0fcd6bbb7487dd76e18de41cebbff98b.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.4685b2d9b757bf6dac575613014122e6.jpg

    This looks like the transition some of us are expecting?

     

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Karl, hope you don't mind my asking but...who exactly is this bloke you keep posting a GIF of?  More to the point, what are his meteorological credentials?  (I genuinely don't recognise this character!) 

    I don't know mike, someone else on here posted it months ago and I thought it was really funny with the confused expression so I use it.?

    On the subject of the Gfs 12z operational..it looks better than any of the earlier output today and hopefully it's on the right track, becoming warmer and anticyclonic!!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    With a little luck, we could be seeing the beginnings of a self-sustaining (and very favourable) pattern starting to emerge?:oldgood:

    image.thumb.png.f13a993d459b41b4f590d87d43cc277f.pngimage.thumb.png.48c3b749083135c70a41fb8a34235d23.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    With a little luck, we could be seeing the beginnings of a self-sustaining (and very favourable) pattern starting to emerge?:oldgood:

    image.thumb.png.f13a993d459b41b4f590d87d43cc277f.pngimage.thumb.png.48c3b749083135c70a41fb8a34235d23.png 

    Now what would i prefer, this from the Gfs 12z or a top 4 finish in the premier league? ⚽!!..I would happily settle for both!!?..squeeky bum time!:shok:

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    I don't know mike, someone else on here posted it months ago and I thought it was really funny with the confused expression so I use it.?

    On the subject of the Gfs 12z operational..it looks better than any of the earlier output today and hopefully it's on the right track, becoming warmer and anticyclonic!!?

    Fair enough!

    T240 and the GEM is plummets stoic, I'll leave that there, I actually typed PLUMETASTIC

    image.thumb.jpg.9fbe9653c994825c57a278fb55f28e20.jpg

    GFS at same time ideal for a repeat of last year with ideally situated high pressure and a link to the Azores for potential reloads

    image.thumb.jpg.f94fbc5d1e2eee20eadb50edba0d6125.jpg

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    There were indications from yesterday's models that we may exchange the northerly then trough dominated pattern to something warmer and ridge related or indeed southerly related towards next weekend and into middle of the month. Today less than convinced this will happen, yes indications again a ridge will travel up from the south, but quickly through the UK and heading north, hence an easterly flow off a not particularly warm continent and N Sea could occur and with cut off low to the SE, chance heights may migrate NW again and we come under the auspices of further northerly episode. We may be about to see a very northerly/easterly May.  

    In my opinion you've jumped the gun a bit here, yes that's what the GFS 06Z was showing but it was just one run at the end of the day, the 12Z is much more favourable for the high building much more strongly over the UK. I think it's still very much open in terms of what happens once the ridge builds over us (which is looking increasingly likely now) around this time next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    36 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

    Better position of the high pressure ridging on the gfs 12z than the 6z centred more over the UK to bring about a change to warmer settled weather. Seems like we won't be able to avoid winds from a coolish direction but an easterly can bring in the warmth at this time of year.

    Worth remembering that it's possible for our warmth to be more homegrown at this time of year as well. We don't necessarily need a very warm flow- last May was a prime example with easterly winds for much of the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    In my opinion you've jumped the gun a bit here, yes that's what the GFS 06Z was showing but it was just one run at the end of the day, the 12Z is much more favourable for the high building much more strongly over the UK. I think it's still very much open in terms of what happens once the ridge builds over us (which is looking increasingly likely now) around this time next week.

    Hi Scorcher, I think the earlier Ecm op / mean were similar to the Gfs 6z op run..hopefully a better Ecm 12z to come which is more in line with the Gfs 12z operational !?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    FV3 is looking good! image.thumb.png.ad4e06f8841fb2dbf57f4e179cca4655.pngimage.thumb.png.d9c4a8b6a130e934daf8dce4bb700a23.png

    giphy.gif

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Worth remembering that it's possible for our warmth to be more homegrown at this time of year as well. We don't necessarily need a very warm flow- last May was a prime example with easterly winds for much of the month.

    Aye, depends on location, your area not affected by sea mist, this area prime spot for it, can take post 1pm for even signs of it lifting

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Aye, depends on location, your area not affected by sea mist, this area prime spot for it, can take post 1pm for even signs of it lifting

    I wouldn't fret about it..the Gfs 12z looks better?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I'm happy with this from the GEFS 12z mean!??

    GFSAVGEU12_192_1.png

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    GFSAVGEU12_240_1.png

    GFSAVGEU12_264_1.png

    GFSAVGEU12_288_1.png

    GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

    GFSAVGEU12_348_1.png

    GFSAVGEU12_366_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Well I'm sure we all agree on one thing folks, next week is a bag of spanners. Stuck under low pressure.... Yakk!! But towards the end of the run from icon... Shuttle changes about to shape up... Or am I getting confused..... By the way Mike this bloke in this gif is not meteorological related, its from a comedy sketch or film, just forgot which... But he is one funny confused fellah.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The dog-end looks a wee bit hinky, to me: :unknw:

    image.thumb.png.3153cb610b14e6d8f79401c13c5498fd.pngimage.thumb.png.d11979c5b2727908cf467e8640d7f737.png 

    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ6eioCpHF5yOCS74VSqvk

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Cfs sticking with the pattern and going for a big warm up in the final 3rd....oh yehhh, bring it. 

    cfs-0-264.png

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    cfs-2-462.png

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    cfs-2-516.png

    df346a65ec99093e3a9ae5d3c7b31242.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The ensembles have spoken!image.thumb.png.d9ccb2e8f9279ad6ef3b1301c4de54fa.pngimage.thumb.png.44211f545d8e3d79fd8141bab96ee025.png

    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQitNodOsFmDWpi75AkI9W

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

     

    cfs-2-516.png

    df346a65ec99093e3a9ae5d3c7b31242.jpg

    An Ant I cyclone for an Anteater!?:crazy:

    perfick.jpg

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