Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


Recommended Posts

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There were indications from yesterday's models that we may exchange the northerly then trough dominated pattern to something warmer and ridge related or indeed southerly related towards next weekend and into middle of the month. Today less than convinced this will happen, yes indications again a ridge will travel up from the south, but quickly through the UK and heading north, hence an easterly flow off a not particularly warm continent and N Sea could occur and with cut off low to the SE, chance heights may migrate NW again and we come under the auspices of further northerly episode. We may be about to see a very northerly/easterly May.  

Nice to see an unbiased look at the upcoming possibilities. Great post. ?

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

Posted Images

Just my honest unbiased opinion but to me it looks like the ukmo 12h is indicating a gradual change to unsettled next week.??

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

 

UW144-21.gif

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

Edited by Frosty.
  • Haha 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

This may raise a few eyebrows but I see an improvement coming jim..but not as we know it!!!??:shok:

12_159_mslp500.png

giphy (2).gif

12_186_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

In my unbiased opinion this looks settled..feel free to disagree!!??:shok:

12_213_mslp500.png

Agree Frosty!!!!!!!!!!!! just shame it's in silly range, keep 'em coming Frosty! the warm/settled ones that is

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Better position of the high pressure ridging on the gfs 12z than the 6z centred more over the UK to bring about a change to warmer settled weather. Seems like we won't be able to avoid winds from a coolish direction but an easterly can bring in the warmth at this time of year.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

Karl, hope you don't mind my asking but...who exactly is this bloke you keep posting a GIF of?  More to the point, what are his meteorological credentials?  (I genuinely don't recognise this character!) 

Anyway to the 12z runs and we are starting to get some consensus for high pressure building just after next weekend. T180 GEM ICON and GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.6ea171caf13d189d8f77a3168dd535ea.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0fcd6bbb7487dd76e18de41cebbff98b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4685b2d9b757bf6dac575613014122e6.jpg

This looks like the transition some of us are expecting?

 

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Karl, hope you don't mind my asking but...who exactly is this bloke you keep posting a GIF of?  More to the point, what are his meteorological credentials?  (I genuinely don't recognise this character!) 

I don't know mike, someone else on here posted it months ago and I thought it was really funny with the confused expression so I use it.?

On the subject of the Gfs 12z operational..it looks better than any of the earlier output today and hopefully it's on the right track, becoming warmer and anticyclonic!!?

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

With a little luck, we could be seeing the beginnings of a self-sustaining (and very favourable) pattern starting to emerge?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.f13a993d459b41b4f590d87d43cc277f.pngimage.thumb.png.48c3b749083135c70a41fb8a34235d23.png 

Now what would i prefer, this from the Gfs 12z or a top 4 finish in the premier league? !!..I would happily settle for both!!?..squeeky bum time!:shok:

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I don't know mike, someone else on here posted it months ago and I thought it was really funny with the confused expression so I use it.?

On the subject of the Gfs 12z operational..it looks better than any of the earlier output today and hopefully it's on the right track, becoming warmer and anticyclonic!!?

Fair enough!

T240 and the GEM is plummets stoic, I'll leave that there, I actually typed PLUMETASTIC

image.thumb.jpg.9fbe9653c994825c57a278fb55f28e20.jpg

GFS at same time ideal for a repeat of last year with ideally situated high pressure and a link to the Azores for potential reloads

image.thumb.jpg.f94fbc5d1e2eee20eadb50edba0d6125.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

There were indications from yesterday's models that we may exchange the northerly then trough dominated pattern to something warmer and ridge related or indeed southerly related towards next weekend and into middle of the month. Today less than convinced this will happen, yes indications again a ridge will travel up from the south, but quickly through the UK and heading north, hence an easterly flow off a not particularly warm continent and N Sea could occur and with cut off low to the SE, chance heights may migrate NW again and we come under the auspices of further northerly episode. We may be about to see a very northerly/easterly May.  

In my opinion you've jumped the gun a bit here, yes that's what the GFS 06Z was showing but it was just one run at the end of the day, the 12Z is much more favourable for the high building much more strongly over the UK. I think it's still very much open in terms of what happens once the ridge builds over us (which is looking increasingly likely now) around this time next week.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

Better position of the high pressure ridging on the gfs 12z than the 6z centred more over the UK to bring about a change to warmer settled weather. Seems like we won't be able to avoid winds from a coolish direction but an easterly can bring in the warmth at this time of year.

Worth remembering that it's possible for our warmth to be more homegrown at this time of year as well. We don't necessarily need a very warm flow- last May was a prime example with easterly winds for much of the month.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

In my opinion you've jumped the gun a bit here, yes that's what the GFS 06Z was showing but it was just one run at the end of the day, the 12Z is much more favourable for the high building much more strongly over the UK. I think it's still very much open in terms of what happens once the ridge builds over us (which is looking increasingly likely now) around this time next week.

Hi Scorcher, I think the earlier Ecm op / mean were similar to the Gfs 6z op run..hopefully a better Ecm 12z to come which is more in line with the Gfs 12z operational !?

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Worth remembering that it's possible for our warmth to be more homegrown at this time of year as well. We don't necessarily need a very warm flow- last May was a prime example with easterly winds for much of the month.

Aye, depends on location, your area not affected by sea mist, this area prime spot for it, can take post 1pm for even signs of it lifting

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, depends on location, your area not affected by sea mist, this area prime spot for it, can take post 1pm for even signs of it lifting

I wouldn't fret about it..the Gfs 12z looks better?

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I'm sure we all agree on one thing folks, next week is a bag of spanners. Stuck under low pressure.... Yakk!! But towards the end of the run from icon... Shuttle changes about to shape up... Or am I getting confused..... By the way Mike this bloke in this gif is not meteorological related, its from a comedy sketch or film, just forgot which... But he is one funny confused fellah.... 

icon-0-96.png

icon-0-120.png

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-180.png

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif.244e76a445f1b7fe98d7c9dfe621c1c6.gif

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...