Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No panic folks around the same time our better spell is predicted was the same time last year, we had a we bit of a wobble. 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is looking better at T+240..azores ridge nosing in and temperatures on the up! 

Edited June 2, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Another stressful day of model watching folks... So I will sign off with a trip down memory lane.... First a snap shot of July 2013...bloomin lovely it was.... And secondly a snapshot of December 1st 2010...some big snowfalls up North if I remember correctly.... Enjoy the rest of your evenings.. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

legendary chart Matt! this location does well from beasterlies, convection from the sea

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All ! Very unsettled for all of us,,My attention  turns to the later part of the week into the weekend  Perhaps stormy by next weekend ! .? 

[Guest]

Well the 12z’s are again undoubtedly poor. Any talk of a warm is purely speculation and well into the realms of FI, going to have to be a pretty quick change in output for the first half of June not to end up down the pan! Really does look like a poor start to summer. 

[StormChaseUK]

The 18z certainly all over the place and confused about 12th onwards, could be plume heat or slow warm up keeps flipping between them.

Sadly 18z delivers no established plume just flirting glances of heat over the channel that nearly make it but don't.

Pattern is locked in by the looks 

Edited June 2, 2019 by StormChaseUK

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Improvement beyond next week I feel, as usual the GFS seems a little confused, but I would say compared to next, most definitely a change for the better. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Another stressful day of model watching folks... So I will sign off with a trip down memory lane.... First a snap shot of July 2013...bloomin lovely it was.... And secondly a snapshot of December 1st 2010...some big snowfalls up North if I remember correctly.... Enjoy the rest of your evenings.. 

Hi yes remember 2010 very well. The snow was thigh deep in places had snow showers constantly for about 36 hours. Then was about - 10 at night.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

The 18z certainly all over the place and confused about 12th onwards, could be plume heat or slow warm up keeps flipping between them.

Sadly 18z delivers no established plume just flirting glances of heat over the channel that nearly make it but don't.

Pattern is locked in by the looks 

Can't trust gfs. It's so up and down last week or so. Let's see if the ecm keeps the trend. But I won't be confident of anything until at least 96/120 hours away anyway maximum. Might have a rest from model watching until Thursday Friday. See how it is then. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Warming trend can been seen on the ensembles panel. Find this easier to look at instead of the graph. This is for Yorkshire area. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Warming trend can been seen on the ensembles panel. Find this easier to look at instead of the graph. This is for Yorkshire area. 

Sorry 850hpa temps 

[tinybill]

8 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All ! Very unsettled for all of us,,My attention  turns to the later part of the week into the weekend  Perhaps stormy by next weekend ! .? 

i agree  wednesday night is looking  wet thuesday not looking any nicer for us on the east coast!

[knocker]

Outlook - Little change from previous comments. Unsettled for a few days under the umbrella of the upper trough but after the next round of amplification still signs of the pattern defusing quite rapidly with the trough filling in situ. Nothing drastic but the weather should become more settled with temps varying around the average.

Meanwhile the N. Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC WV image

Yesterday's cold front is now well clear to the east but the low and an occlusion within the circulation is still effecting Scotland and N. Ireland so the strong winds will continue today with frequent showers. Further south it will be mainly dry but some showers will track north east from the south west. At this point it's worth noting the developments in the base of the upper trough as it becomes elongated courtesy of more amplification in the west. A cooler day than of late in some areas

Showers will continue over N, Ireland and Scotland this evening but will become less frequent by the early hours But to the south west the aforementioned disturbance in the form of a shallow low has tracked north east and will bring more continuous rain to this this region after midnight

This belt of showery rain ,with some heavy pulses, will spread north east during Tuesday resulting in a very wet day in many areas and even our old friend the long departed cold front makes a return to the south east with some heavy showers

The shallow low continues to track north overnight and through Weds so continuing showery in the west and north with rain still brushing the far south east

Over Thursday and Friday the country is still under the auspices of the upper trough and there are sundry disturbances running around on the surface so another day of sunshine and showers on Thursday but by Friday another low has developed over Coruna and this tracks north east bringing more continuous rain to the the southern half of the country.

 

[knocker]

According to the gfs the low continues to influence the UK weather over the weekend so quite unsettled

But note the bigger picture. Continual promotion of the subtropical high zones has resulted in a high cell over Greenland and the isolation of the upper trough Just t be noted at this stage I feel

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM ends with quite a stunning Griceland HP 

 

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by CreweCold

[Guest]

Ugh GFS is a shocker this morning. Temps don’t get above 17c here until NEXT Wednesday, that’s 10days away (the south east fairs a tad better) and there some really cool days in there with fronts stuck over various parts of the country, looks like we’ll be going into the mid month period with some big time sunshine deficits and CET comfortably below average. We really need to get rid of blocking locking us into this pattern, the large Omega block over western Russia looks even more stable this morning which is just bad news.

[Weather-history]

This would be a contrast to last June!

Edited June 3, 2019 by Weather-history

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

This would be a contrast to last June!

It’s not really an outlier either.....some consistently large rainfall spikes starting to show up later this week as a weak secondary low forms to the south and drags in moisture and slow moving fronts over the south. I’m really trying my hardest to refrain from using comparisons to our two least favourite summers from recent times but its not looking good....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s not really an outlier either.....some consistently large rainfall spikes starting to show up later this week as a weak secondary low forms to the south and drags in moisture and slow moving fronts over the south. I’m really trying my hardest to refrain from using comparisons to our two least favourite summers from recent times but its not looking good....

Only early June though, mostly autumnal time of year, late June, Jul, Aug and even Sept is proper summer, especially for your area

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Only early June though, mostly autumnal time of year, late June, Jul, Aug and even Sept is proper summer, especially for your area

Completely agree however it’s the lack of light when there’s over 15hrs of sun available that gets really frustrating, had to cook dinner yesterday with the lights on at 5pm for example. Warmth and sun in late August/September is a bonus but the strength of the sun is gone and those long evening fade rapidly. 

As I’ve said before summer is the only season for me so inherently get very nervous when a pattern sets up that could easily lock for half a season (not saying it will happen, but could easily from here) 

[knocker]

The ecm not a dissimilar scenario next weekend with lows running around in the circulation of the trough

[Methuselah]

Well, the 00Z certainly could be worse:

The FV3, as usual, goes through gymnastics aplenty, in getting to wherever it gets:

The ensembles are interesting: everything bar the kitchen sink:

Maybe some kind of pattern-change, come the 9th or 10th of June?

[Penrith Snow]

GFS holds some promise this morning at least for northern areas as high pressure builds to the north but for the south it really isn't good, that makes a change! As for ECM you really couldnt draw a worse run in summer if you tried, especially as most of Europe is basking in heat, no warmth or settled whether at all out to day 10 as the UK remains under a invigorated though. Shocking!

Andy

[mb018538]

Massive difference this morning at day 10:

ECM


GFS


Wouldn't want to be forecasting anything past day 6 or 7 at the moment with differences that big!