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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad end to the 06Z. It would be an 'eventful' 16-days, were that run to verify::oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

What I've noticed is that when the old GFS goes very warm and settled, the new one does the opposite. It appears the FV3 becomes more settled towards the end. Its all la la land anyhow, we view this far out to pick up on trends, and tbh the more I do it the more confused I get. 

gfs-0-372.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean doesn't support the plume idea in a week's time, doesn't mean it can't happen but it's not the form horse.

GFSAVGEU06_180_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Karl it seems an outlier. I would suggest a general warm up, and more settled conditions towards mid month, followed by cooler and more unsettled conditions to end the month. That's the feeling I'm getting anyway.... All a long way off, and sure to change another 1,000 times up until then. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, the FV3 somehow manages to find a decent ending? Am I the only one who has difficulty following FV3's evolutions?:cc_confused:

image.thumb.png.19140e650b2be30e58121c39bca19501.pngimage.thumb.png.062681c6ba3b12a42fa70fefbdd39e8e.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, the FV3 somehow manages to find a decent ending? Am I the only one who has difficulty following FV3's evolutions?:cc_confused:

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Pete, I just can't make sense of this models directions. It goes from 1 extreme to the other... Run to run. God help us come winter, when it has us under - 20 uppers every day. There are gonna be some seriously excitable posters in here, or fed up, whichever way you look at it.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
45 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Be cautious, look how much it varies from 00z to 06z   The 00z was actually better in a way as it builds heat slow rather than flash in pan 1 day affairs

Yes  StormChaseUK, and it rather proves the point of how the 0z and 12z runs are the more reliable.... Better and more data analysis. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes  StormChaseUK, and it rather proves the point of how the 0z and 12z runs are the more reliable.... Better and more data analysis. 

I prefer the more 'politically correct' term marginally-less-unreliable myself, Matt.:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Longer term the GEFS 6z mean improves significantly our chances of something more summery returning although having said that, the signals are still mixed so no guarantees.

GFSAVGEU06_222_1.png

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GFSAVGEU06_246_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_270_1.png

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GFSAVGEU06_294_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_294_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_318_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_318_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Definitely signs of  warmer spell towards mid month and potentially drier conditions, I would say unsettled spells still probable at times, especially Western and Northern areas. 

graphe3_1000_264_91___.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Definitely signs of  warmer spell towards mid month and potentially drier conditions, I would say unsettled spells still probable at times, especially Western and Northern areas. 

graphe3_1000_264_91___.png

Agreed, southern uk has more chance of settling down and warming up longer term according to the extended 6z mean..probably no real surprise there that the south would be more favoured.

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Models all over today really struggling towards next weekend and into the following week. I think we may just keep ending up this summer with low pressures and hot air wrapping around for a day or 2.then sunshine and showers until the next low brings the next warm shot. If these lows slow down or move further north. We could get a long warm/very warm spell with chance of azores ridging. Looking to the 12z for more clearer picture for next weekend and beyond.  Before I finish we have had 4 cloudy days with a odd sunny spell up hear in sunny Yorkshire nothing really I could call stunning weather. Looking forward to seeing a bit more sunshine this week in between the showers of course. Peace all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Models all over today really struggling towards next weekend and into the following week. I think we may just keep ending up this summer with low pressures and hot air wrapping around for a day or 2.then sunshine and showers until the next low brings the next warm shot. If these lows slow down or move further north. We could get a long warm/very warm spell with chance of azores ridging. Looking to the 12z for more clearer picture for next weekend and beyond.  Before I finish we have had 4 cloudy days with a odd sunny spell up hear in sunny Yorkshire nothing really I could call stunning weather. Looking forward to seeing a bit more sunshine this week in between the showers of course. Peace all. 

Yes, showers a plenty through the week, more especially on Tuesday, at this stage I would say it will be after next weekend, the following week before things settle down. How long that lasts is anyone's guess! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here are the 06Z GEFS ensembles: as you can see, they rapidly lose the plot, following c. June 10:

image.thumb.png.24c06c93376f13a3957ca85909ea61c4.pngimage.thumb.png.4771132f10a1f5e61827f0229fa9f86f.png 

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Two things to notice: a ridiculous rainspike around the 7th, and a burst of unusually warm uppers (though the op is clearly an outlier, at this point) around the 11th...If it's confusing now, just wait for when the FV3 takes over!:oldgrin:

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Still way too much uncertainty for my liking, even the warmer output is only marginal such as the 06z gfs. Form horse still primarily on unsettled for the next 7-10days. Frustrating. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Still way too much uncertainty for my liking, even the warmer output is only marginal such as the 06z gfs. Form horse still primarily on unsettled for the next 7-10days. Frustrating. 

Quite, i don't think that many will disagree with that description,as Tamara has posted above, the period thereafter holds some promise.

Next 2 or 3 days might give us a better inkling as to where the pattern is heading.

I'm keeping an eye on the potential for a scandy high around mid month..

'tis a shame we don't have Steve / Bluearmy posting in the summer months -

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Amazing you posted catacol, I only said to Tamara the other day how much I loved her posts and also yours... Good to see you post again... And thanks... Great post.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Remember the Jim bowen dartboard low slap bang over the UK on icon yesterday? Well today it has it quite a bit further South.. 

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icon-0-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I think NWS pointed the possibility of a scandy high earlier... Well my friend that's looking a possibility. 

gfs-0-276 (1).png

gfs-0-300 (2).png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Still early yet but models are still showing possible signs for heat around the 15th with temps around 30c. Could be one to watch?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm think that this summer (at least until some fundamental changes) will be one in which temperatures might fluctuate wildly either side of average...?

image.thumb.png.bc388f9079a59e8ecc023b289eca5e12.pngimage.thumb.png.48dfa632087e613bed25f3202b161f89.png 

 

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