Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Frosty.]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

few miles further West would be very interesting, possible maybe something to watch?

It's a shame it stops at day 10 sometimes..I have a good feeling about days 11, 12, 13..etccc..

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's more like it ECM... boooooommmmmmmm shaka lak.... 

Really, despite the milder uppers, that’s a clagfest and still cool for many....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, however  it was woefully wrong at 144-168 only a few days ago so i wont be getting seduced by nice charts at day 10..

I always thought these seduction charts were always reserved for winter months... However this nasty little disease seems to have spread to summer as well... Let's hope it comes off NWS and we can get you and others up there into some of the nice and summery weather action

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Really, despite the milder uppers, that’s a clagfest and still cool for many....

If you can dodge the strong winds and heavy rain..it should feel pleasant

Edited May 29, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Really, despite the milder uppers, that’s a clagfest and still cool for many....

You just can't find a positive with any chart. That has the potential to devolop at that point! I'm pretty sure you would have nit picked your way through summer 2018 and found nothing but faults with it... That 10 day chart is superior to anything on offer next week.... Unless you live in Stornoway it ain't that bad...,

[I remember Atlantic 252]

19 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Hot in the South this weekend and crap up North - standard for Summer! 

Rain all day here...same tomorrow...same again Friday...abysmal! (We really are getting the skid marks on the underpants of the default UK Summer weather for the next few days and next week up North)

Hopefully by mid June things start to look better for us up here! I am just glad the most accurate and reliable supermodel of them all is showing this in a few weeks time...

The good old CFS...about as useful as a cat-flap on a submarine, hand-break on a canoe, concrete trampoline...you get the point! 

Hope everyone in the South enjoys the warmth/heat this weekend - hopefully in a few weeks myself and many others will be joining in on it! 

Cheers! 

FV3 too, about as useless as a chocolate teapot

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the longer term Ecm 12z ensemble mean once the in-situ trough fills.

Edited May 29, 2019 by Frosty.

[Wimbledon88]

GFS out to mid June paints a dire picture if it's summer your after. Should be warm down south mind. 

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

You just can't find a positive with any chart. That has the potential to devolop at that point! I'm pretty sure you would have nit picked your way through summer 2018 and found nothing but faults with it... That 10 day chart is superior to anything on offer next week.... Unless you live in Stornoway it ain't that bad...,

Not at all, I’m just a massive heat fan will be one of the the biggest on here, just back from Marrakech and was 43c - stunning. To that point I hate anything remotely rubbish and only live in the UK because my family are here. I get what you saying about having potential to develop but then you have others moan about extrapolating beyond the end point of the model being discussed. 

[knocker]

The evolution of the EPS mean anomaly over the last four days illustrates very well the intensification of the east European ridge and the east Atlantic trough that the det runs have been picking up in more detail which we are all well aware portends unsettled and not particularly warm weather And also why it could get a bit nippy in Iberia. And winding tonight's run on, although no significant change in the pattern, certainly some slackening of intensity vis the trough and a much slacker gradient over the UK leading to it being  much less unsettled and perhaps temps creeping above average,

This evening's NOAA in the same ball park

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not at all, I’m just a massive heat fan will be one of the the biggest on here, just back from Marrakech and was 43c - stunning. To that point I hate anything remotely rubbish and only live in the UK because my family are here. I get what you saying about having potential to develop but then you have others moan about extrapolating beyond the end point of the model being discussed. 

I'm a massive snow fan, one of biggest on here, but disappointment every time living here, feel same as you in winter, but remember heat in summer is miles more likely than cold in winter

Edited May 29, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Blessed Weather]

Sorry folks but there's been a few posts removed this evening for either being off topic or for accusing others of having a view that disagrees with your own. If you disagree with a post, either provide a reasoned explanation of why you disagree with it, or report the post for the moderation team to consider.

Humour within a post is absolutely fine, we all enjoy that, but please include that within your model output discussion.

Many thanks.

[knocker]

Outlook - The front(s) that are currently straddling the north of the country are going to be a bit of a pain for that region over the next couple of days. And to some extent this epitomizes the trend over the weekend before more general cooler and unsettled weather arrives next week.

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart

Much of the country now resides under a rather broad warm sector so in this warm, moist air (note the temps at 0300) cloud and mist will be the issue. But where the cloud breaks, it will get quite warm as warmer air is pushing up from the south.  But under the aforementioned fronts the current rain/drizzle will continue through the day effecting N. Ireland, northern England and most of Scotland. The far north may be clearer and drier. All of this is reflected in the temp spread.

Tonight will be typical of warm sector weather with plenty of cloud, and mist around, more so in the west, and very mild. But the rain will persist in the north and by dawn will become moderate in N. Ireland and western Scotland as the triple point associated with the warm front edges east, courtesy of the movement of the trough to the west.

The moderate rain will continue over N. Ireland and Scotland through Friday with the triple point over the western Isles whilst elsewhere it will be dry and,  where the cloud breaks, quite warm.

Over Friday night and through Saturday the cold front sinks very slowly south so still cloudy with patchy rain in the north but below this it starts to get very warm. particularly in the south east. But away to the south west a low is developing at the base of the upper trough.

The aforementioned low develops quite rapidly and tracks north east to be 995mb NW of Ireland by midday Sunday with the associated cold front lying down the western regions of the country. Cloud and patchy rain from this will track slowly east whilst the area preceding this will again get very warm. A distinct possibility here of some quite intense storms. A very marked regional temp contrast

 By midday Monday the low is 988mb north of Scotland and it's travels will have brought quite strong winds to N. Ireland and western Scotland as well as introducing much cooler conditions generally over the country.So Monday will be a day of sunny intervals and showers which may coalesce, courtesy of the stray trough within the circulation.

Note - the temps shown are a guide to the distribution and not necessarily definitive

Edited May 30, 2019 by knocker

[tesaro]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Outlook - The front(s) that are currently straddling...

I tune in every Morning for your perusal of the outlook Knocker. An honest and unbiased opinion for which I thank you.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Polar Maritime
Shortened Quote.

[knocker]

The country continues to be under the influence of the upper trough through next week , so continuing with sunny intervals and showers, which resides just to the west and by midday Wednesday another low is forming in the base away to the south west which be midday Friday is 988mb just west of Galway and this brings rain and strong winds with it. This is of course according to the gfs and this very much subject to change

[Sky Full]

Some unsettled charts from the 8-10 day period:

GFS 0z  +240                                             GFS (P) 0z +240

   

ECM 12z +192                                           GEM 0z  +240

   

I still have a lot to learn but these don't look like the sort of early summer conditions many of us would like to see in June.  Personally, I hope these predictions do not verify.  What I would prefer is a proper Flaming June, which as we all know used to occur regularly in days of old, before any of us were born....

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Sky Full
.

[Guest]

Pretty similar across the board this morning and while there are no ridiculously low pressure systems buzz-sawing there way through the UK the upper trough generally remains close to or over the UK with a stinking great high from the mid Atlantic up into Greenland, I don’t think it’s a negative comment to say that’s going to take some shifting, history shows once anchored in the pattern can easily last anything from 2-6weeks in a worst case scenario.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Alderc

[northwestsnow]

The central/Eastern European furnace looks primed on the 00z runs ..

EC 168

Meanwhile as i look out of the window..

Lovely.

[knocker]

According to the ecm the Atlantic amplification next week, and then the disruption of the ridge. displaces the cold air as far south as Casablanca whilst initiating more WAA into Europe

Edited May 30, 2019 by knocker

[tinybill]

18 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Some unsettled charts from the 8-10 day period:

GFS 0z  +240                                             GFS (P) 0z +240

   

ECM 12z +192                                           GEM 0z  +240

   

I still have a lot to learn but these don't look like the sort of early summer conditions many of us would like to see in June.  Personally, I hope these predictions do not verify.  What I would prefer is a proper Flaming June, which as we all know used to occur regularly in days of old, before any of us were born....

 

i agree  even looking       deep fantasy world they not great  dont know if it any thing due to all the bad weather over the pond but the charts  dont look  for a hot june at the moment

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful end of Spring and start to Summer. 

Here's hoping for a quick change to heat in a couple of weeks. 

[Polar Maritime]

Latest Netwx-mr take on temps/Cape storm potential for Sat/Sun.

 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Latest Netwx-mr take on temps/Cape storm potential for Sat/Sun.

 

Nice! A warm Saturday then a cooler Sunday but staying dry throughout in SW Wales 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just a quick peak at the 00Z GEFS ensembles using the micro 500mb and Sea Level Pressure postage stamps: For next Thursday, these are some of the solutions they are offering:

Quite a number show the upper trough and surface Low Pressure still being quite influential around the U.K area, particularly Western spots. However, it seems like quite a few of these also showing the upper troughing retreating back Westwards in the Atlantic, including some where the upper troughing is getting cut off just to the West or South-West of the U.K (the green snot as referred to some on here). Consequently then resulting in ridging to our East/North-East trying to build in towards the U.K. (Perturbation 10 probably one of my favourites at the time with the Azores High extending its ridging North-Eastwards through Northern UK, with a clear shallow cut off Low to our South, likely throwing up some very warm and thundery weather towards Southern UK). 

And as you will notice, by Sunday 9th June, High Pressure and its ridges from the East/North-East putting up more fighting power towards and over the U.K on a good portion of the below.

You’ll notice as well the upper troughing on some of these easily becomes a separate cut off feature to our West/South-West/South. This seemingly allowing the Scandinavian or European ridging to build in over the top across the U.K. Otherwise, a few where ridging stays very close by to our East and the upper trough just to the West/North-West of the U.K. Would help to bring about more settled weather generally, especially for Eastern parts, and becoming warm and very warm on a fair number on those postage stamps. As some spoke about regarding the possibility of ridging to our East becoming more influential over the U.K, I think the above scenario(s) is indeed something the Summery weather enthusiasts would need to see! One way anyway to see an exit out of the likely unsettled weather next week (or part of next week) for those that want it. 

Being far away, not a definite solution. But certainly a possibility! ?

Edited May 30, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine
Correcting mistake(s)

[Wimbledon88]

The GFS 00z paints a very nasty start to summer all the way till mid June. Haven't had time to look at the other models, I expect they are the same. Can't help feeling we are looking at another 2007 or 2012 summer. It's going to be a grim one I feel, especially away from Southern England.