Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[danm]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

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Good to see you posting on here again. 

[danm]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Your location good for August, best summer month isn't it in SE, where as full on autumn in Scotland

Living in the SE my entire life, without looking at the stats, I’d probably say on balance July is the best summer month. It’s been a while since we’ve had a really good August. 

[knocker]

As noted on the current satellite image there are a plethora of showers around at the moment

And these will continue through this evening and overnight in many areas but dying out somewhat over northern and central England after midnight

 

[Mike Poole]

Well here we go with the 12s, then.  But before commenting on the models, I must say thanks to @Tamara for what is probably post of the year, above!

As I only tend to post on the 12s (unless there's something important on the cards like snow), first out is of course ICON, and here is where we end up at T180:

 

I don't think the position of that low, if it even happens, is certain at all - we will see, GFS rolling....

[Methuselah]

Looks like Thursday night'll be a warm one:  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ukmo 12h friday and especially saturday are the best days further south before a trough moves in for sunday but saturday in particular could be a HOT one across the s / se before it becomes more showery and less warm.

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Frosty.

[Wilxy]

Next Sunday looking very interesting at this stage!  

Edited May 27, 2019 by TomW

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the ukmo 12h friday and especially saturday are the best days further south before a trough moves in for sunday but saturday in particular could be a HOT one across the s / se before it becomes more showery and less warm

not sure about hot Frosty, you might be right, but GFS 12Z dosen't look hot, just decent temps, hot to people can vary, but 27+ to me generally means hot

[knocker]

On this evening's gfs output the combination  of the upper lows NE America and N. Scandinavia, with a not insignificant contribution of the low in southern Europe, is not conducive to any great northward movement of the subtropical high with the strong westerly upper flow. This even promotes another trough east.by t120 So although WAA on the south west flow is the order of the day over next weekend, frontal rain will effect the north on Saturday and Sunday and perhaps thundery outbreaks in the very humid air in the south on Sunday before cooler Pm air returns on Monday

 

[Methuselah]

I think that speaks for itself! 

[mb018538]

UKMO 12z has any warm air gone by Sunday now....could be a SE corner special. Very unsettled again as we head into June...GFS has the 0c isotherm covering most of the country through the first week. Pretty high 10 day rainfall totals in the N/NW between 50-100mm, so some flooding issues possible. 

 

[Methuselah]

The 12Z, once again, ends on a high:                                                                                                               

[Methuselah]

But, a consensus among the majority of the models now suggests that the weekend's warmth will be very short-lived affair indeed:

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 12Z, once again, ends on a high:                                                                                                               

A high if like you and like rain, but for those wanting dry weather not really much on offer, Early June sucks anyway

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Its all going Pete Tong on the GFS, First half of June looking like a total write off. After a brief ridge in the SE this weekend before a swing right into an unsettled and cold spell lasting for about a week. The 15C uppers showing just a few days ago have gone and are now replaced with 0C uppers, daytime maxes around 10 to 12C.  

[Frosty.]

I think the ukmo 12h may be a bit fast displacing the heat on sunday across the s / se..could squeeze out another 26/27c on sunday as well as saturday, indeed thursday and friday become increasingly warm too..further south!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

Its all going Pete Tong on the GFS, First half of June looking like a total write off. After a brief ridge in the SE this weekend before a swing right into an unsettled and cold spell lasting for about a week. The 15C uppers showing just a few days ago have gone and are now replaced with 0C uppers, daytime maxes around 10 to 12C.  

remember early June isn't really summer for many, real summer is late June to mid Sept

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, a consensus among the majority of the models now suggests that the weekend's warmth will be very short-lived affair indeed:

 

But, despite that, the FV3 is suggestive of a reload pattern setting-up -- quite a few runs have ended like this:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I really can't believe what I'm reading again... The 1st half of June is a write off!! 10c, even exeter aren't stating any of this... A NE/SE split perhaps. I'm pretty sure some just enjoy this type of weather so just hope for it.. What will you all say when the models paint a better picture tomorrow, or the day after! I can't believe how some literally write off a month based on a days model output... Roll on winter, this summer is doing my head in already.. I really do hope the models shift very soon, otherwise it will be hell in here. Eyes down for the ECM..  please god.... Let it be good. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Cheshire Freeze]

Personally I'm happy to see the modelling revert to something cooler and more unsettled. A lot of places need the rain and I'm personally not a big fan of sun scorched grass and dust bowl conditions like we had last year. 

[Mike Poole]

Who knows where we are are heading? Politically or meteologically?  

FV3 at T384:

Unusual if this happened, but weird things have happened..

.Most  likely  for me is the start of a repeated Azores ridge push,but much less organised than last year. Let's see...

 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 this summer is doing my head in already.. 

And it's not even summer yet

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Personally I'm happy to see the modelling revert to something cooler and more unsettled. A lot of places need the rain and I'm personally not a big fan of sun scorched grass and dust bowl conditions like we had last year. 

That's a fair point, but I can't see the logic in an unsettled summer, if that's the case we go into winter with hardly any sun at all. Then we follow it up with 4 or 5 months of more gloom. What a depressing year that would make for. 

[Frosty.]

I must say after a cooler unsettled blip for a time next week there is a gradual return to summery weather with high pressure and warmer temperatures according to the GEFS 12z mean! 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

Absolutely no doubt this is a very fluent pattern. 

But with a more general southerly and south-westerly component to the patterns I'd suggest warm to very warm humid on that note thundery breakdowns become a very real possibility with such different patterns setting up around the world. 

Id punt that summer this year will hold some severe weather events for the uk. 

But in general amplifed patterns are more likely that not. 

I'd wouldn't be surprised if warm to very warm spells more often than not. 

Ecm and gem love the heights and are more than likely to be close in the long run. 

The fluid movement by the ukmo is likely to be more in-between the focus on recent months has given me a insight into progressive to slow each model has its given strengths its working out what's more likely by using combined model analysis. 

Id expect the met Office to be pretty close to actual outcomes. 

Although I don't rate the ukmo in these current set ups. 

But the human analysis is a different story. 

Like the noaa anomaly charts ect ect. 

Absolutely nothing terrible on the horizon pretty straight forward june by the looks of things.