Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[knocker]

 mb018538

You are comparing apples with pears. A broadscale NH anomaly chart with a spot check day 10 det Atlantic chart. Albeit the current developments do appear to have been missed although the EPS was hinting towards it yesterday

They appear to have missed trough(s) exiting the NE seaboard and then phasing with the trough north of the UK and then intensifying.

Assuming of course that this doesn't change

Edited May 27, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Well, the GFS 00Z run could be worse, it could be much worse. And it ends okay:

 

And the FV3 (great model!) is also a tad on the good side:

GFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad, either: 

         

[I remember Atlantic 252]

have we had 06Z yet Ed? I always prefer winter times of model runs

[johnholmes]

39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Let’s hope so....

As those two couldn’t be ANY further apart.

Just to repeat what knocker has pointed out. One is a one off chart for one day, with emphasis on the surface isobars. The other is a mean chart at 500 mb for 8-14 June. They are not the same thing at all.

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Blip don't worry 

Nae problem..not worried, this is a great chart from the Ecm 00z..hope it verifies!!!!!!!!!!!..reverse psychology old boy!!

Edited May 27, 2019 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

00z ECM over doing the low towards the end of the run here's the ens for southern Scotland

That's a relief- although my expectations for early June have nosedived this morning.EC 12z started the backtrack, and the others have followed.

Still lots of life in the old jetstream it would appear the models underestimated it..

 

[Frosty.]

Let's take a step back, the models are still showing a warm up later this week and it looks like a very warm / hot weekend across the south with temperatures soaring to 26/27c 80f!!!!!!!!!

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Just to repeat what knocker has pointed out. One is a one off chart for one day, with emphasis on the surface isobars. The other is a mean chart at 500 mb for 8-14 June. They are not the same thing at all.

I get that - but regardless of this, you wouldn’t expect to see deep lows like that showing up even if it is a mean plot. If the 500mb mean is positive then a low of that intensity in June is the polar opposite. Anyway - looks like from the ensembles it was a bit of an outlier, so let’s see what the 12z says.

[Methuselah]

Thursday's looking like becoming increasingly warm and muggy...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Thursday's looking like becoming increasingly warm and muggy...

Not a nice source of warm air in summer - as you say, humid.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Not a nice source of warm air in summer - as you say, humid.

I prefer tropical maritime to polar maritime at this time of year, in any sunshine the temps will be really boosted.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Not a nice source of warm air in summer - as you say, humid.

Really, Thursday has temps maxing at 20c and dp’s 13-15? Hardly humid and that’s with GFS’s usual ability to overegg them.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I prefer tropical maritime to polar maritime at this time of year, in any sunshine the temps will be really boosted.

Don't like either, myself.  East Anglia tends towards humidity in summer at the best of times.

[Scorcher]

Just now, Alderc said:

Really, Thursday has temps maxing at 20c and dp’s 13-15? Hardly humid and that’s with GFS’s usual ability to overegg them.

That relative humidity is high, anything above 50% in the afternoon can feel muggy so 20C with a dewpoint of 15C would certainly be classed as a humid day. Whether or not it's particulary noticeable because of the temperature not being that high is another story.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Don't like either, myself.  East Anglia tends towards humidity in summer at the best of times.

Fair play, each to their own as they say.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 6z still delivering the much warmer settled conditions by weeks end.... That's me in.... Camper van being packed ready...

The warm air has advanced a long way North  come sunday... Low pressure to our NW is increasingly trying to become a player at this stage.... No panic from me just yet.... All well that ends well I say.. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

My take on this guys at this stage is low pressure will become more of a feature to our North and not be sitting directly over us like ECM would like us to believe... Heights to our SW are close to rebuilding again... Alot to be sorted here. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Guest]

Unfortunately 06z is going the way of ECM Azores high joining forces with the Greeny high leaving a filling low ambling around the UK. 

[johnholmes]

51 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I get that - but regardless of this, you wouldn’t expect to see deep lows like that showing up even if it is a mean plot. If the 500mb mean is positive then a low of that intensity in June is the polar opposite. Anyway - looks like from the ensembles it was a bit of an outlier, so let’s see what the 12z says.

Apologies for coming back folks but there is not a +ve 500 mb anomaly where the one off chart shows a deep low. Also the variability of synoptic charts at time scales greater than 144-168 hours is something else I rattle on about. You need to compare such charts like with like as I often suggest. This gives some degree of continuity and a better idea of what is most likely. But I'll shut up

[Djdazzle]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Unfortunately 06z is going the way of ECM Azores high joining forces with the Greeny high leaving a filling low ambling around the UK. 

Still miles better than the ECM though.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Jon is bang on correct and he should no, there really is not much point comparing a 6z run with the 0z...we need to compare with yesterday's 6z run and so forth.... And here is an example. 

[Methuselah]

Are the PV remnants on their last legs? If so, then they've had more last legs than an African giant millipede!

 

[Methuselah]

The 06Z certainly ends all right: 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No drama folks, it ends well... But it's GFS and it always ends well..

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Major models now backtracking away from recent suggestions of an arrival of summer only the GFS seems to be taking slower steps in eroding away any fine spell. ECM wipes it away as quickly as it appeared and HP getting shunted northwards keeping on to the threat of cool Northerlies once more.