Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Frosty.]

It's not a matter of life or death what the Ecm 12z shows at T+168 or 192 hours..listen..it's more important than that!!!!! (Bill Shankly)

Edited May 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Sweatyman]

someone explain what ecm showed please?

[northwestsnow]

Poor EC 12z..

Hopefully an outlier

..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Poor EC 12z..

Hopefully an outlier

..

hmm, not certain, 00Z was the same, if anything 12Z is a wee bit better

[Frosty.]

The message from the Ecm 12z is..thumb your nose at green snot at your peril!!..  I call this run, revenge of the green snot!!..although it never reaches england and wales and the warmth never really leaves the far south /  southeast.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

someone explain what ecm showed please?

It wasn't very good, but then again, it wasn't very bad..hope that helps!!

[Frosty.]

And God said, let there be heat, and there was heat..well maybe he or she didn't but the Gfs 12z operational certainly did!!!!

Edited May 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

34 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

someone explain what ecm showed please?

Good Evening You and All! A Very Uncertain outlook , computer models really struggle with an undulating jet stream,  and we call that a High Level of Shannon Entropy . Ecm is showing a Brief Plume before the Atlantic comes in ,Gfs is really not sure where its going....If I was to put some money on any model it would have to be the Ecm....

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean at T240:

Doesnt really tell us much more than that the Azores ridge scenario is clearly a favourite in the mix, other solutions are available, see retailer for details, or failing that, the clusters!

[Guest]

Battle between GFS and ECM at around T192, the later digs troughing down in a particularly unpalatable fashion while GFS gives something not to dissimilar to what we saw at times last June ie high pressure to north and lower pressure to south west and a warm easterly. If I had a fiver to bet experience tells me the ECM solution is more probable and in fact high pressure won’t even ridge in as much as currently modelled meaning we’ll end up in a secondary northerly mid way through next weekend however after last summer who knows. 

[Gordon Webb]

more switching between models than most fashion designers

[Summerstorm]

Well the ECM OP run is on the lower end of it's members for North Wales/North Midlands area. The pressure chart shows it is right at the bottom so clearly an outlier there and a more settled outlook is the more favoured solution in comparison. 

Upper air temps wise it is less of an outlier but obviously showing it cooling down after the plume next weekend/early next week, however there are some warmer members in there which are probably more akin to the GFS solution although this maybe a bit of a temperature outlier in itself anyway. 

Also another pressure chart from Greenland and the OP run is very clearly an outlier here as well developing heights more aggressively than most of the other members which is the likely reason why the run turns unsettled towards the end as the ECM OP run tries to develop Northern Blocking and LP develops underneath it instead of a Scandi/Azores HP combination shown on the GFS. The mean and the majority of other members have pressure dropping gradually over Greenland as next week goes on so i feel the ECM may have thrown a slightly rogue run out unless this signal builds in the other models over the next few days. 

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by Summerstorm

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've noticed some are saying if they was having a bet, they would be putting there money on ECM!! Well I will bet that tonight's ECM 12z will be completely different come tomorrow morning's 0z run.... And that's a banker! We can't play down a fine spell on the back of 1 dodgy model run... Its not how it works, even though there will be some that hopes tonight's ECM is on the money.... Alot of water to pass under the bridge yet, me thinks!! Starting with tonight's 18z.. 

[Frosty.]

There's more positives than negatives today, it's clearly going to become very warm or even hot across the south next weekend into the following week, especially if the Gfs 12z operational is on the money..maybe there will be a less warm blip but at worst I can see there being a rinse and repeat cycle into early summer and perhaps even something more sustained in terms of settled and warm weather further into june.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18z not bad out to 162hrs.

Out to 210hrs and high pressure still the main player here.. This is for sure a better run than the earlier ECM.. 

Edited May 26, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I feel like a 1 man commentary team here.. Its a decent run, we do have a warm up followed by a cool down, but the signs of high pressure reasserting itself bringing warmer conditions again... Very much a rinse and repeat pattern.... All in all quite a good run. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Certainly not too bad of a run from the GFS 18Z for the Summer weather enthusiasts. Compared to the ECMWF, the latest GFS does show a fair amount more power to the High Pressure system over the UK (most especially over Southern areas) later this week and, at times, into early next week. Not a full on U.K High, but nothing too disturbed either. A bit more changeable over North-Western UK areas, perhaps.

Though the outlook does seem to get quite messy on that 210 hours chart you posted in your post above your recent one. Perhaps the GFS ate a bad burger at Model-Donald’s restaurant, while producing that at day 9.  And I’m wondering if the ECMWF ate some bad burgers, too, with its strong love for the Greenland High in FI on that 12Z run. 

The 12Z ECMWF can’t be totally ignored, mind. But do suspect, particularly as what Summerstorm illustrated, it could very well be pumping up the Greenland High a bit too much. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes DRL I suspect to that ECM maybe overplaying Greenland heights, a decent GFS like you say and perhaps a bit messy around day 9/10, but as you will be aware it's a long way off. Hopefully some more positive runs later today.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Alderc said:

Battle between GFS and ECM at around T192, the later digs troughing down in a particularly unpalatable fashion while GFS gives something not to dissimilar to what we saw at times last June ie high pressure to north and lower pressure to south west and a warm easterly. If I had a fiver to bet experience tells me the ECM solution is more probable and in fact high pressure won’t even ridge in as much as currently modelled meaning we’ll end up in a secondary northerly mid way through next weekend however after last summer who knows. 

Thought it might take more than two runs but GFS doesn’t build high pressure as much as yesterday (yesterday was getting to 1032mb), subsequently 850’s aren’t as high and by Sunday is slipping away with the squeeze from from advancing low pressure to north west, pretty ugly picture with another northerly don’t on the positive side any outcome like that will hopefully get watered down.

[mb018538]

Oh dear....not looking anything like as good today, high pressure barely even making it next weekend, before being swept away by more unsettled muck. Like a winter downgrade all over again. Even be mighty noaa anomalies have got this one wrong.

[Djdazzle]

Or it could be a wobble. Even the Met Office were on board with the settled spell.

[Guest]

Oh dear, even at t144 ECM is one to flush, a promising situation is deteriorating rapidly this morning, ECM ends pretty dreadfully to be honest with a deep area of low plastered over the UK.  

Edited May 27, 2019 by Alderc

[mb018538]

Let’s hope so....

As those two couldn’t be ANY further apart.

[Summer Sun]

00z ECM over doing the low towards the end of the run here's the ens for southern Scotland

[StormChaseUK]

Blip don't worry