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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

BlueHedgehog074
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Amazing ain't it folks, during winter we see all the models firm up on a cold snap 1 day, and the next, slowly but surely we see them back track again!!! Not with this warm spell we don't.... Here is the 6z supplying the goods later next week.... Its looking good summer lovers..

On a more negative note.. I reckon the Spanish residents maybe taking more naps than usual... Just look at those uppers approaching the South!! 

Out to day 10 and good chunk of England still in warm air, not overly bad up North tbh. This looks like a reload pattern could be setting up soon as well. 

gfs-0-96.png

gfs-0-120 (1).png

gfs-0-150 (1).png

gfs-0-168 (1).png

gfs-1-168 (1).png

gfs-1-216 (1).png

Edited by Mattwolves
Adding chart
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Long way off folks so caution required.... But the 6z ending is just fabulous!! I said I hope my Northern neighbours can get a little of the action... And here it is... +12 uppers in the far North.... In the words of Bernard Matthews.... .. Bootiful..... 

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-0-324.png

gfs-0-360.png

gfs-0-384.png

gfs-1-360.png

gfs-1-384.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Yes an interesting evolution on GFS...period between 144 and 168 seems to be pivatol... room for upgrades on EC in this timeframe.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The FV3 (great model!) ends with some scorching potential down over Spain, Portugal and France! It does, however, take an altogether more phlegmatic approach to things, when compared to its older sibling?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.936d543879183d7f6fc83252e1acaec0.pngimage.thumb.png.9326081ebca6b2a3729563c59b84363a.png 

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

Good persisting signs of "summer warmth from south"  don't want to jinx it by using the plume word just yet.

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Les 06Z ensembles: image.thumb.png.88eebb80c46ba23f0c8038433d161585.pngimage.thumb.png.84f19bed3dacbb68cfff1d4c0a8d5dcc.png

     Et le precipitation: image.thumb.png.3ddf79a03625cac3285bfd9e23616bd9.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

I cannae see any downgrade in the GEFS mean..

GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_324_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Les 06Z ensembles: image.thumb.png.88eebb80c46ba23f0c8038433d161585.pngimage.thumb.png.84f19bed3dacbb68cfff1d4c0a8d5dcc.png

     Et le precipitation: image.thumb.png.3ddf79a03625cac3285bfd9e23616bd9.png 

I'm encouraged by the ppn. spikes after the 7th - indications of a plume, perchance?

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

So to the 12s then, and the settled picture over most of the UK seems nailed on at T108 now, here on GFS, GEM and the (delayed) ICON:

image.thumb.jpg.ba3961c02607b188a081f347a16fb710.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.ee00f4bdac1edefb22acac1015048660.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.316cfc5a75192d34e988f97309ad61eb.jpg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Looking good at T+201.image.thumb.png.fd8394a1c5b9290bebd519192b843c24.pngimage.thumb.png.9ae8b0d1a6845ede40ca290a8ae74d53.png

But: image.thumb.png.29f64fcbfc7711706ac0833ef09587f7.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Let's catch up with those three models again at T156:

image.thumb.jpg.c53512deec409adf303d6178b4ffb7a8.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.8f49a87155ded431874bcd3a64cbfae7.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.c4885ea95a50d0487a3396f44b81c6a8.jpg

GFS and GEM are of the high pressure dominance then less settled maybe thundery intermission before the settled spells take hold once again, ICON is the 2018 redux, starting a bit earlier.  Enjoy! 

Add to that the UKMO, also late, but this time did appear to come out in order, with the T144 last:

image.thumb.jpg.a3cac72a763ed179559f13d721798128.jpg

Going with the ICON solution I think there.

Edited by Mike Poole
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

GFS looks very warm next through next weekend and early next week with 24/25/26 deg for manchester area and the potential for some heavy thundery showers..

image.thumb.png.4ef7bcbd6e9413b1d528d8b3ea3dd1e0.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

A nice and toasty end too:image.thumb.png.3839a1b5df61859e7bfb91fcfc2fcd5a.pngimage.thumb.png.bff3907032379f60c948280fa7a271b0.png

We've got off snot-free!:yahoo:

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A nice and toasty end too:image.thumb.png.3839a1b5df61859e7bfb91fcfc2fcd5a.pngimage.thumb.png.bff3907032379f60c948280fa7a271b0.png

We've got off snot-free!:yahoo:

And a smiley and a wink from the jet stream too,,,I'm in a seeing pictures in things mood today!....portends well, to use a phrase, Hello summer...

image.thumb.jpg.66b47ef520b9610577dac84acfbe442d.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Oh dear, the FV3 at T+276 is, shall we say, a tad disappointing...Though it is a crap model!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.79beff947472a1e32f74d02eda9b6181.pngimage.thumb.png.f069f8e919b96da05b0477edd0525690.png 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Quite a strong signal tonight from the GEFS, here at T192 and T312:

image.thumb.jpg.0a59ab8953fcdbddbb6f47a1260c129d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c05130d4faf6e867dec5d9c6450efd79.jpg

First for a suggestion of a break after the first time the high pressure takes hold over the UK later next week, and later the strong suggestion that a train of high pressures affecting at least the south might be the form horse.  it's my form horse 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'm not going to pay too much attention to the way the FV3 ends...I just hope it hasn't latched-on to a new trend!:shok:

image.thumb.png.8f161c9a3a94eddc054f3cb908f10960.pngimage.thumb.png.ea93020180cbcc3ac35357ead7f7b3fd.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The 12Z ensembles have duly arrived: image.thumb.png.c18a469c10f81a54062b8455a0ebb675.png

      image.thumb.png.029593714ed57bd128b40f133c077556.pngimage.thumb.png.45a9383de1a35468d670bc5be1e1bc18.png Some rain?:yahoo:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Another good day for upgrades folks, just having a look at the CFS 6z run deeper into June, and again it's an absolute blinder... Here are some highlights.. 

cfs-0-264.png

cfs-0-300.png

cfs-0-324.png

cfs-0-348 (1).png

cfs-2-384.png

cfs-2-414.png

cfs-2-432.png

cfs-0-438.png

cfs-0-480.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Promising start from ECM out to day 5. 

ECM1-96 (1).gif

ECM1-120 (1).gif

ECM0-120.gif

ECM1-144 (1).gif

ECM0-144 (1).gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted (edited)

Good agreement out to 144h, happy days!

Edited by TomW
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

144 - 168 now coming into view on EC-

Could go either way at 168 ...

image.thumb.png.49dfea254651cd5253ea1ec1c26644b0.png

edit, ouch.

image.thumb.png.59d876417d6403e481044ed7162030f7.png

T+192..double ouch:shok:

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