Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12h starts to improve from next wednesday but then really accelerates towards a return of summery weather further south by friday..I would expect things to just continue improving thereafter with temperatures next weekend into the mid 20's celsius across southern uk!

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The FV3 12z becomes incredible..great model!!:whistling:...charts incoming!

GFSPARAEU12_312_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_336_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

FV3's fine: still plenty of sunshine and feeling much more comfortable:

image.thumb.png.54d16b42c2d5d0290ce14d95f6335671.pngimage.thumb.png.01fe660b05a48c1ccc4a66fe3f10841b.png :oldgood:

PS: Great model!:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield

Wow! Looking like a proper spell of settled anticyclonic weather is on its way, that low pressure west of Biscay would pump some seriously warm air our way! I bloody love synoptics like this in June!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Gfs12z seems to have a downgrade on the temps for NW and Scotland with the heat confined only to the South only while Northern and Western England continue to eagerly await decent heat.  This is normal for late August never mind early June. .

 

 

ukmaxtemp2.png

ukmaxtemp3444.png

ukmaxtemp14.png

ukmaxtemp4.png

ukmaxtemp3.png

ukmaxtemp.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Wowzer just look how close +16uppers are getting to our shores!! This as the potential to melt the tarmac... May improve the potholes....

gfs-1-228.png

gfs-1-240.png

gfs-1-288.png

gfs-1-300.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For a while the Gem 12z is sensational, mid to high 20's celsius and gorgeous plentiful sunshine under big high pressure to the E  / SE  importing hot continental air into the uk..hopefully setting up a rinse and repeat beyond day 10..what a start to summer this could be!

gem-0-144.png

gem-1-144.png

gem-0-168.png

gem-1-168.png

gem-0-192.png

gem-1-192.png

gem-0-216.png

gem-1-216.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The FV3 12z becomes incredible..great model!!:whistling:...charts incoming!

GFSPARAEU12_312_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_336_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_17.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_1.png

Amazing that It was described as crap this morning (not by you) when it didn't show what some people wanted what a fickle bunch some are

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Amazing that It was described as crap this morning (not by you) when it didn't show what some people wanted what a fickle bunch some are

Regular posters are aware of inherent problems with the FV3, I don't know if the issues have been resolved yet but anyway it's light hearted mockery of this model which I'm sure it doesn't mind since it's not human!...  no complaints about the 12z though..it's a cracker!

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Mon Dieu! What an ensemble!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.ce1dbc20ad5513707dc2c6ac065333a2.pngimage.thumb.png.5e4148c4569ed5989d295c8c91fd459e.pngimage.thumb.png.d487c2af3d5a6cd2980cbdd1f32af243.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Longer term the GEFS 12z mean is fantastic..waves goodbye..actually sticks 2 fingers up at the green snot as it departs for greenland!!!:oldp:

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_336_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_360_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

ECM is looking like it's gonna be on the money out to day 6.....in the name of greace lightning..... Summer loving had me a blast.... Summer loving its happening so fast...  

Plenty of warmth out to day 10,low pressure to the NW as well at this stage.... But long way off.. 

ECM1-96.gif

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168 (1).gif

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
Adding charts
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z out to T144, and summer is arriving.  Properly.  

image.thumb.jpg.6ea2c8eb9c1e81038a3eee06619571ef.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0a5a39f31fd4014020292fa1412f3d69.jpg

When the models start to flock together in favour of an outcome to the extent of today, they rarely backtrack. The corollary of this of course is that often seen in winter when the models back away from a cold solution and no way do they come back!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Every day, summer's getting closer; going faster than a rollercoaster, come what may...

image.thumb.png.b76228014d848ad5a53334a125afc0ca.png:yahoo:

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

dosen't look as good to me, still good though away from the NW, a chart more typical of August, than early June

ECM1-192.GIF?25-0

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nae bad!!

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thick.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Nae bad!!

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thick.png

Tis a little warm, is that! image.thumb.png.ce9203b6201fdf4e69548a77930ea352.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z mean, well at T144 supportive of what we think we already know, high pressure ridging from the south to the UK:

image.thumb.jpg.4154eb4101e36639e2c970b49d0f164c.jpg

By T240, uncertainty gets in the mix:

image.thumb.jpg.a75c218f6466a60ad0876b603010ee3a.jpg

But it remains a healthy set up for settled warm weather further into summer.  Would be interesting to see the clusters if anyone wants to post them.  (The link is on my work computer, so I go into this long weekend clusterless!)

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Evening All! Hints of a Spanish Plume next week ...I'm getting Excited 

ecmt850.168.png

h850t850eu-1.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Decent day of model watching, here are the ensembles... More ups and downs than a day in my head... . 

graphe_ens3.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a north / south split developing next week with summer returning to the south following a brief cooler changeable blip but more mixed  / meh further north.

EDM1-144.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Certainly for the south later next week looks warmer and drier far more uncertain for the north where low pressure and remain remains 

ecm2.2019053112_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1a3df527c33255d2c0fc7c5d83799ed6.pngukm2.2019053112_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.44b5ab9bcbb93536552fdeab9f01db04.pnggfs2.2019053112_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.60bf0b99687c5afb3e610f82e034de46.png

ecm2.2019060112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2fd0b1828dd8482cc8eb0d19b0d41aa1.pngukm2.2019060112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.80f138fa8acba3a74156b4a0f31129f5.pnggfs2.2019060112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.fa0ca7fa9b0e9f40c3efb41282b022db.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Just love seeing these charts. June is my favourite month. I am a extreme heat lover but June trumps the lot for its long days and blissful evenings. There’s nothing better than 25c+ and low wind on a June evening. 

Looks a very promising start for the Summer. Really really hoping for a 2018 repeat. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Just love seeing these charts. June is my favourite month. I am a extreme heat lover but June trumps the lot for its long days and blissful evenings. There’s nothing better than 25c+ and low wind on a June evening. 

Looks a very promising start for the Summer. Really really hoping for a 2018 repeat. 

Yep it's great, until its time to try and sleep in it, then it becomes an absolute nightmare, and this is coming from someone who ramps it up. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...