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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm doesn't amplify a la gfs thus the upper trough tracks east rather than SE by S and thus the UK is not plunged into the cold northerly. Merely frontal systems tracking east around the subtropical high

t120.thumb.png.538fc55db387eb90994cefe4c538d3a1.pngt144.thumb.png.4d6316711ebdd8fb73ea4959c3ea4dc1.pngt169.thumb.png.84fd24ce2ac1b65ac1358ab908228e7b.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I thought the Gem 12z was really good but the Ecm 12z has raised the bar!!..stunning turnaround from cool and unsettled early next week to hot and sunny by the end of the week..hope so!!

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192_mslp850.png

 

216_mslp850.png

216_thick.png

216_thickuk.png

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240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I think we have a full house! image.thumb.png.3193ba9e44377285967eeb9308ed118e.png :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Slight difference in 850s on the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z at day 8 . Is the ECM leading you summer lovers up the garden path ? It leads us up the garden path in winter lol . 

9839B2C8-13FA-4676-BD86-22037110F7BD.png

D63F731E-9DCF-4F22-9180-27105081AA3A.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Slight difference in 850s on the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z at day 8 . Is the ECM leading you summer lovers up the garden path ? It leads up the garden path in winter lol . 

9839B2C8-13FA-4676-BD86-22037110F7BD.png

D63F731E-9DCF-4F22-9180-27105081AA3A.png

Aye, still FI, but summer weather in summer way more likely to come off in FI, than cold in winter

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, still FI, but summer weather in summer way more likely to come off in FI, than cold in winter

Your correct with that statement... GFS does take longer to warm us up, but boy does it end well...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, still FI, but summer weather in summer way more likely to come off in FI, than cold in winter

And, don't forget, we also have the background signals working in our favour, this time? Oh, hang on!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, don't forget, we also have the background signals working in our favour, this time? Oh, hang on!:shok:

on that, hopefully they will suggest wet and windy summer

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean was never going to be as extreme as the operational but it's trending to a much more summery further outlook all the same, especially further south!!

Love it Karl, and especially has your from up North its good to see how you always flag up the better conditions further South... Certainly no bias on your behalf mate... Good stuff

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON 18z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.0c4eac46692eb22a5944b6958a8e5e15.jpg

Compared with 12z at T126:

image.thumb.jpg.37baaa512f29f992c3fdf84bd7dd8be7.jpg

Latest run looks  more aggressive with the ridge, The connection of this ridge with the heights to the north is what gives us the UK high later, more details of course from the pub run and the FV3 pub run, but others will have to commentate on those, as I am knackered (busy week), but maybe it's good on two counts that May is nearly out.  Roll on June....

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
38 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.0c4eac46692eb22a5944b6958a8e5e15.jpg

Compared with 12z at T126:

image.thumb.jpg.37baaa512f29f992c3fdf84bd7dd8be7.jpg

Latest run looks  more aggressive with the ridge, The connection of this ridge with the heights to the north is what gives us the UK high later, more details of course from the pub run and the FV3 pub run, but others will have to commentate on those, as I am knackered (busy week), but maybe it's good on two counts that May is nearly out.  Roll on June....

May went earlier today

(That been done already?)

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Pretty respectable 00z runs again this morning - the first weekend of June is shaping up to be fairly warm by the looks of things. Hard to say what happens after, but the cool weather is disappearing!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
12 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm doesn't amplify a la gfs thus the upper trough tracks east rather than SE by S and thus the UK is not plunged into the cold northerly. Merely frontal systems tracking east around the subtropical high

t120.thumb.png.538fc55db387eb90994cefe4c538d3a1.pngt144.thumb.png.4d6316711ebdd8fb73ea4959c3ea4dc1.pngt169.thumb.png.84fd24ce2ac1b65ac1358ab908228e7b.png

is the ecm in error then? or is it progressive ? the ecm is supposed to be the most accurate model but surely it has brought on the hot blast rather early.
of course the noaa charts do not agree with such a hot blast quite so early, and the ecm appears to be alone in its timing of any potential hot blast.

 

610day.03 june.gif

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Using the 500 mb anomaly charts is less than normally consistent at the moment. A few days ago they suggested troughing as the main feature, today/last evening they suggest a flattish ridge as being the main feature around the UK, see below.

In each scenario the flow is from the Atlantic.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

In each case the pattern suggests no longish spell with any summer heat yet showing. Well that is how it seems to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

On the face of it, it looks like summery weather will be on the way back next week at least to the south according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean!

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

No complaints about the 00Z, this morning:

image.thumb.png.daf4d09d1e7d4fc2360515a3f806905a.pngimage.thumb.png.0cc5450ae11f220bd82a82dbc071281d.png 

 

Though the FV3 (crap model!) has found yet another bogey:

image.thumb.png.2d115830d4396c1260d2b408b761494b.pngimage.thumb.png.75641c7dae9f21519a3e81a13dbd0905.png

 

00Z ensembles are fine:image.thumb.png.ee966943bec508758444675332706fa0.pngimage.thumb.png.0e60736ad8a0e54e57a40a366cd0985f.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

Yes the updates keep the warming trend with a plume of warm air, or push of warm air from the south. 

And considering the patterns we have been having were stagnant, we could be in a plume setup that lasts for several days (reserve that excitement for now)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A chance of some intense thundery downpours come Tuesday...We certainly need some rain!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.b089ad6d59966dd3c43d6da1f5d2c4f1.pngimage.thumb.png.c0933bd694cb5b5cbcf5cbf2fa116411.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Pete rather worrying thing about the FV3 is it's persistence at some point to place a cold pool over the UK, just Imagine how this models is gonna drive all the coldies crazy come winter!! Anyhow ECM still painting a rather nice picture come end of next week and has summer sum as posted, very respectable temperatures. Anywhere South of Northern England potentially nudging mid 20s I would have thought! So not a bad start today folks if you like a bit of warmth! Anyhow have a great Bank Holiday if you can..

ECM1-120 (1).gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168 (1).gif

ECM1-192 (2).gif

ECM1-216 (1).gif

ECM0-120.gif

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-192 (1).gif

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