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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

BlueHedgehog074
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

The controlling feature for the rest of next week is the movement of the upper trough to the north so continuing unsettled but some light at the end of the tunnel by Saturday as the subtropical high ridges in

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9217600.thumb.png.600341e7da513d2d0129eb8015a8b837.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9390400.thumb.png.3a96077763de9eb638c5208f26d89484.png

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Some much needed rainfall totals for parts over the next week.

1367774016_viewimage-2019-05-24T075321_657.thumb.png.6028b8cb15840c1f2e182c86ade6a9c1.png

 

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

The ecm quite quickly moves the upper trough away to the east after the middle of next week but further systems track east around the subtropical high so remaining unsettled with showers, some longer periods of rain and sunny periods

t156.thumb.png.4d9d3e11a9888438aeee8c944b4b6fa2.pngt204.thumb.png.b65444f38c74c80d94a6f7713514c6cd.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM looking promising into next weekend again this morning....not strong high pressure domination per se, but enough of an influence to drag some fairly warm air up.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The 00Z ends (again) on a very promising note and, more importantly, would even deliver some useful rainfall, next week:

image.thumb.png.5dd4fabb395e0a17347651a1171d75f1.pngimage.thumb.png.2968a8ead592f83d760c4bf478d2b38f.png 

 

The FV3 follows a very broadly similar evolution, though the details (at D16) are all-but meaningless:

image.thumb.png.a1f903f0320f8dc434bd585a9f8b761d.pngimage.thumb.png.ec1572e2a7291d5f0556fec100737f47.png

 

Of much more relevance, at least around here, is the prospect of useful rain:

image.thumb.png.cb4137bcc83401c121df121d5b12ef2a.pngimage.thumb.png.b700ca5ed4105ed165adab43d3993da1.pngimage.thumb.png.d42f7360f77f6d1140ddccd2a7366512.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

EC mean at 192 looks OK..

image.thumb.png.af839db024db7b8c25642dc8fc2c0369.png

But by day 10 the blocking high to the NW is forcing the trough towards our shores..

image.thumb.png.d9d38e95fffe6476ec166f58afb3e673.png

So, on the face of it, things look like settling down after an unsettled week but my concern would be the heights to the NW look set to persist, and while that is the case we will always be exposed to unwelcome green snotty troughs..

 

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Author
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Posted (edited)

While it’s in the land of dreams zone, the GEM (00Z) at 168 to 240 hours continues to be optimistic about building pressure over the U.K - particularly over Southern parts.

38E96189-8AD0-4A59-AEEE-8156D465DD27.thumb.png.598fe4f6be6b271330ace818c52b10e7.png2E6E67D6-FC31-4A78-8C2D-65E6473D6959.thumb.png.5b55e1d15dc3f04313e9022beea68845.png99339F98-4BFD-45C2-82A8-18C057A7807E.thumb.png.9964e5aa16bffc7bdda70df0d7afa0e1.pngEA07E3C6-EBAD-4569-A852-47303CC7CCC5.thumb.png.fed63cf80b4e2d99236eb053a0697118.png

Warm I would imagine with some sunny periods, particularly again (but not necessarily so), over Southern parts. 

However both the 6 to 10 day, and the 8 to 14 day, 500mb anomaly charts from the NOAA still not buying into a build over Pressure over the U.K with lower than average heights close by to our North-East. Doesn’t look desperately unsettled, mind. Probably especially more so for Southern UK. And with the lack of strong detail on its 8 to 14 day chart, then confidence perhaps isn’t overly high at the moment. 

91EB7610-33B3-4B84-90DF-E6672FBE0253.thumb.gif.541b0b6060770562e73f72bc1fa6e714.gif6EAB9E36-9EEB-47F7-9C59-3AA1AB06F543.thumb.gif.c7bc34b91f1b2956d32d2a400d3b93cd.gif

However, unless support heightens for its outlook and the anomaly charts start moving more in that direction, I think it would be best to be wary of the over eagerness of operational model runs, such as the GEM, for now regarding its more High Pressure dominated outlook later next week. 

The 00Z GFS at 168 and 192 hours is probably the more fitting outlook going by those mean charts above. 

FBDDDAF0-CE2E-4E0F-820D-5DC33D147DC6.thumb.png.51e89bc159bc2028c9e9580d668f0f94.pngEB6A071F-CBCC-4ADC-903E-5B49FBA72F46.thumb.png.526a6dd59d9bc1dfafe3bfedf85ecc3c.png

I think it’s possible that Southern and South-Western areas may at least still see some influence of ridging from the Azores at times. Just not of the extend of the GEM I don’t feel. Suppose will have to see how the model runs and anomaly charts keep progressing (including the ensembles and their means, such as the one northwestsnow posted above).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEFS  00z mean strongly suggests the early days of this meteorological summery will become very summery indeed!!!!!!!!!!!

GFSAVGEU00_348_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS  00z mean strongly suggests the early days of this meteorological summery will become very summery indeed!!!!!!!!!!!

GFSAVGEU00_348_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_384_1.png

GEFS mean looks better than EC for sure longer term.

Interesting few days coming up for the early June pattern..

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Sorry that disappoints you markyo, most want a summer having not had a winter!!..the models are looking promising beyond the cooler showery blip early next week.The GEFS has been looking good longer term for a while now.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

The Gem 0z looks increasingly summery again later..really pleasing!

gem-0-156.png

gem-0-180.png

gem-1-180.png

gem-0-204.png

gem-1-204.png

gem-0-228.png

gem-1-228.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

06Z promises some much-needed (even if some folks don't seem to know it?) rainfall, sometime next week:

image.thumb.png.29530658080c8729a25363618e04891f.pngimage.thumb.png.f67822e13d55aed58ac19973e5030f7e.png 

We have the entire summer left, for sunbathing!:oldgrin:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Putting the unsettled conditions to come aside for a second and just to take a peak at CFS for the 1st week in June or so, and the 0z is looking very promising this morning, I hope it's on to something. It also shows the easing back off heights over Greenland. 

cfs-0-282.png

cfs-0-312.png

cfs-0-336.png

cfs-0-366.png

cfs-0-396.png

cfs-0-420.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Wow that cfs run is a lot better than yesterday!!..good news

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM clusters looking reasonable today:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_240.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_300.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052400_360.

More typical UK weather going by these, with the more unsettled weather closer to the NW and better weather towards the SE.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

GFS is also looking good at T+234 -- I think Dumbo's life-expectancy might be short!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.26e9f1d45badd7082b91d1c706b421c6.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

A stonking end to the 06Z!:yahoo:Fingers crossed, it's in the right ballpark?

image.thumb.png.9beaaec650e5be1bac9d37fcb33c0367.pngimage.thumb.png.5f7cc5dc36d631ca2cac56fcca1dc95a.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

FV3 6z looks good later!..great model

GFSPARAEU06_300_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
21 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

h500slp.thumb.png.f47b3f89b53a72057b56de5a29bd5f60.png

........ there are no words

I can think of a few, but they ain't gonna be postable... Tbh that's so unlikely to come off, that literally is like GFS was playing pin the tail on the donkey. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

FV3 6z looks good later!..great model

GFSPARAEU06_300_1.png

You took the words right out of my mouth, Karl::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.1f83f95fbbed9c8b936964ce37606fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.e23dde1a786007c86f265a8c72507e9f.png 

IMO, it's the area occupied by warm air that counts -- the details will have to wait...?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

You took the words right out of my mouth, Karl::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.1f83f95fbbed9c8b936964ce37606fa6.pngimage.thumb.png.e23dde1a786007c86f265a8c72507e9f.png 

IMO, it's the area occupied by warm air that counts -- the details will have to wait...?

Indeed, I don't mind an easterly now the continent is heating up..less to fret about!

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, I don't mind an easterly now the continent is heating up..less to fret about!

Yuk! Too much imported continental filthy air with a Summer easterly. AH rules!

May itself down here has been pretty good. Warm and sunny last 5/6 days; early-mid May was warm and sunny as well. Been a typical May here; defo NOT a bad one, for sure.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

AH rules!

 

I agree with this part!..looks like the azores high / high pressure generally could become a major player into the early days of summer!

Edited by Frosty.
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