Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Lovely jubilee Karl, the garbage can be taken out with the trash tonight. Fab charts, keep em coming

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

h500slp.thumb.png.1ccfdac0724d7ddae50461d326c687d0.pngiN

Interesting a low forming over Spain due to cooler air moving south.  - good ingredients there

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

interesting charts, especially the one for june 1st suggesting colder then average.

may i ask, what is your opinion of the few runs/models that suggest it hotting up as we enter june? i see the jem is going for it, a few gfs runs have too, plus these ecm charts.. do you think theres any traction to these 'heatwave' suggestions?

 

 

 

Not on the indicators I use mushy and the ext EPS certainly isn't although it does warm a tad by the end And the GEFS is only around average

heat.thumb.png.bc061869f8134ae23e45076e439b13c2.pnggfs-europe_wide-t2m_c_anom_5day-9887200.thumb.png.79a30ca4bb85d41cafeeb75dc6f8a71d.png

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's some fabulous potential further into June on the GEFS 6z..so, there are good signs, better than yesterday even..hope it continues!!

GFSP01EU06_384_2.png

GFSP02EU06_384_2.png

GFSP02EU06_384_1.png

GFSP06EU06_384_1.png

GFSP06EU06_384_2.png

GFSP09EU06_384_1.png

GFSP09EU06_384_2.png

GFSP11EU06_384_1.png

 

GFSP13EU06_384_2.png

GFSP14EU06_384_2.png

GFSP14EU06_384_1.png

GFSP19EU06_384_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
47 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not on the indicators I use mushy and the ext EPS certainly isn't although it does warm a tad by the end And the GEFS is only around average

heat.thumb.png.bc061869f8134ae23e45076e439b13c2.pnggfs-europe_wide-t2m_c_anom_5day-9887200.thumb.png.79a30ca4bb85d41cafeeb75dc6f8a71d.png

 

thanks..

as you know, theres nothing (yet) on my favoured noaa anomaly charts either to suggest high pressure dominance. these charts would need to change pretty drastically in order to support the more progressive high pressure runs some models are suggesting. tbh id have thought tonights runs might build pressure to our south a tad. however i wouldnt be surprised if systems that squeeze through between that azores and greenland highs dont simply feed into the northern trough over the north north sea, boosting it. (a repeat next weekend of whats expected sunday/monday).

 

610day.03.gif

814day.03b.gif

Edited by mushymanrob
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

06Z GEFS ensembles are still on the up, though hardly stonkerific::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.b19b9ec38a87124b31373faaa717e705.pngimage.thumb.png.48c6b7e02160a9b1b5beb3192ed2be30.png 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

06Z GEFS ensembles are still on the up, though hardly stonkerific::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.b19b9ec38a87124b31373faaa717e705.pngimage.thumb.png.48c6b7e02160a9b1b5beb3192ed2be30.png 

Aye Ed but there is some stonkerific potential in there

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

OK folks icon 12z clearly showing the more unsettled and cooler conditions for a few days anyway. By day 6 perhaps some signs of high pressure building in from the SW, and as you can see warmer upper air temps not to far behind.... Fingers crossed and all that.. 

icon-0-72 (1).png

icon-0-96 (1).png

icon-0-120 (1).png

icon-0-144 (1).png

icon-1-72.png

icon-1-96.png

icon-1-120.png

icon-1-144.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12h shows the improvement coming into range @ T+144 hours with the trough departing to the NE and the azores ridge / high arriving!

UW144-21.gif

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

oh did I just jinx it with my post earlier, it looks like I do . I hope the charts right now keep on coming 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Great image from the geostationary of the occlusions wrapped around the low and the little wave west of Ireland

geo.thumb.JPG.0234954ae5c8b24e9ee3cefce1c995b5.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.7f688b8f0587633b40252f1b0e492e70.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

oooooo..  i'm liking the Gem 12z

gem-0-192.png

gem-0-204.png

gem-0-216.png

gem-1-216.png

gem-1-240.png

gem-0-240.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

No doubt about it... Its a gem!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 12Z has another go at producing some much-needed meaningful rainfall, for East Anglia:

image.thumb.png.60edffb8fdb32224f7a1e3f424f7db0a.pngimage.thumb.png.fff825eab11521613b828e7574908508.png 

image.thumb.png.a962e631e68211e6561e0531e20f3396.pngimage.thumb.png.eed20fbb2a3177f9a6ab87c163d456c7.png

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

12Z might have ended well, were it not for one horrible piece of snot!

image.thumb.png.c6b89fb56881381c1aa542a7ac1cc495.pngimage.thumb.png.54a51e4af04ccebaf7a0c64011bc689a.png 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I feel we would be very unlucky to get a run like the Gfs 12z operational where there are times in low res when high pressure is all around the uk but with troughs managing reach us with ease..surely not!! 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Not to stressed guys, yes the 12z seems to have us surrounded by high pressure but not quite close enough to kill off some showery interludes, the azores high seems to have built to the West of us here, it's close enough to bring plenty of fine conditions but not quite in the correct place for major warming. Let's see where the ECM goes tonight, and to see if the operational had actually gone off on one. 

gfs-0-228.png

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-0-312.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think I will be taking more notice of the mean than the operational which is usually the best policy anyway but especially when the op is meh!.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The gfs gas adjusted it's positioning of the upper low next week so that it stays to the NE but it then amplifies the subtropical high too far west so that the corresponding movement of the low south drops colder air over the UK. Of course this will be subject to change.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9206800.thumb.png.86dbbeedf4c7c366cc1f320c44813d07.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9347200.thumb.png.db1974be68b0187c98f389520b5b8b64.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It doesn't happen often but the 12z FV3 is a better run than the Gfs  operational, especially for the south..beyond the cooler unsettled outbreak early next week that is!!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It sure took a while but, in the end, the boy done good -- we've avoided a greenwash!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.ca2c343712e1d36b74509fbc5757685e.pngimage.thumb.png.3e8dd89f7ef280ea03e61a8808f49299.png 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The 12Z ensembles have arrived, and look very so-so::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.986db8b97923332e1f291d688ce35eab.pngimage.thumb.png.b56481d8a500240bb7d3e60c5c7e179a.png                                                                                 image.thumb.png.7e85f7c7a337e05e10c7ec1449a32650.png 

Edited by Ed Stone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...