Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

FV3 (brilliant model!) doesn't end all that badly -- 0C uppers, or above, will do me!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.35257701d43dc774e11afe4b8ae3ccd5.pngimage.thumb.png.451afeb3edba8589c18ea0d90c009edd.png 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I think guys the 6z operational not to bad overall, yes we have a bit more in the way of unsettled conditions bank holiday and early next week, I said last night ECM perhaps would build high pressure beyond day 10....well the 6z brings us under largely high pressure by the latter part of next week, so again we see a rinse, repeat scenario.... Nay bad lads... Nay bad

Edit... I think Karl mentioned it also

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-228.png

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean improves significantly over time as the previous runs with some support for a warmer anticyclonic early June period or perhaps even something very warm, humid, continental and thundery..or both!!

GFSAVGEU06_228_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_252_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_2.png

GFSP04EU06_372_2.png

GFSP07EU06_372_1.png

GFSP09EU06_372_2.png

GFSP13EU06_372_1.png

GFSP17EU06_372_1.png

GFSP18EU06_372_1.png

GFSP19EU06_372_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

 

I'm hopeful the GEFS is on the right track with increasing potential for high pressure and warmth beyond the upcoming cooler unsettled spell which may turn out to be no more than a blip and mainly for the north as the 6z operational shows!!.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

 I’ve noticed that too. Northern Blocking doesn’t look half as strong as it did previously

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The cfs 0z for the month of June into early July indicates a decent amount of ridging / high pressure mixed with occasional showery troughs, however, late June / early July has a stronger anticyclonic signal currently! 

cfs-0-444.png

cfs-0-468.png

cfs-0-492.png

cfs-0-660.png

cfs-0-876.png

cfs-0-930.png

cfs-0-948.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some posts have been hidden/edited. Any more issues please report them to the team, Do not air them in here as folk log on to read constructive posts.

Thankyou please continue 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Reading between the lines of what the cfs is showing for June plus other latest update from you know who... I'm not seeing a bad first month of summer, it looks average with a mixture of ridging / high pressure and showery disturbances (troughs) so something for everyone really with plenty of fine warm weather and some heavy, thundery showers so not a heatwave drought but no cool washout either!!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Something to keep an eye on:

Day 6 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_144.

Day 10 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_240.

Day 15 cluster:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052200_360.

Notice how the very strong reds and oranges indicative of Greenland/northern blocking are starting to ease. 2 of the clusters show a build of Scandi heights too....so worth watching out for.

I think this could be just because it's gone over month end. 

I'm sure I recall someone saying on here in winter that the anomalies (colours) are against monthly average values, so the latter two charts against June, the first against May. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Possibly - but at any time of year strong red colours in that area would indicate blocking, whether its June or December. I doubt that it flicking into June would have that effect, but I’m not sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Taking a look at the icon 12z run shows some more fine conditions for the next few days, we see a gradual decline in conditions by the bank holiday, but I'm feeling more optimistic of heights gaining a foothold again as we move deeper into next week... Not bad... Especially for more Southern parts of the U.k. 

icon-0-72.png

icon-0-96.png

icon-0-120.png

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-168.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Interesting comparison between the Ecm 00z op / mean @ T+240 hours..I prefer the mean!

ECM1-240.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Broadly tell the same story though low to the east height s to the south west winds from the west / north west -  normal service for early June and very different from last year !

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Worth a quick look at tonight as low pressure over southern Norway and associated occlusions continue to bring persistent rain to northern  Scotland which may just effect the far NE by dawn. Perhaps too some light showery rain over N. Ireland and northern England associated with warm front, or even remnants of the upper front. And perhaps cloud and some light rain into the far south west by dawn

PPVA89.thumb.gif.9d5eb05d66941f53345f8fbad86b3b5e.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.b716b1c4ce6e07b38f37f92894be0b5a.gifps_reflec_d02_13.thumb.png.064d47a9f0643e7efbf3d83f239dc916.pngps_reflec_d02_16.thumb.png.f15f24ca3534da71c34aaf0e46434dd1.pngps_reflec_d02_21.thumb.png.76c11d5bd360ec3e76879b03d68ef162.pngps_reflec_d02_24.thumb.png.50bcb72bf489a6e0d8816adbff34755a.png

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Broadly tell the same story though low to the east height s to the south west winds from the west / north west -  normal service for early June and very different from last year !

My point was it's the lesser of two evils, the mean suggests the azores ridge has a better chance of building in with the trough clearing quicker...hope that's the case!

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours, unsettled and cool but it's the north that bears the brunt, perhaps not so bad in the south but now I'm polishing a..

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The gfs starts intensifying the upper low quite early in the piece leading to sme pretty grim surface conditions by midweek. I say no more until the ecm is out

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8958400.thumb.png.8a02147329b16e7a8ded5c711d89e65d.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9131200.thumb.png.c8c7fad97f3df2c6944530ea33575bb7.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Now, that's more like it...Better from the 12Z::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.0b15f75067f02e4ac1c05fbe1871533b.pngimage.thumb.png.19c672f980c444480760e19a1d1e27a1.png 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Now, that's more like it...Better from the 12Z::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.0b15f75067f02e4ac1c05fbe1871533b.pngimage.thumb.png.19c672f980c444480760e19a1d1e27a1.png 

The FV3 becomes anticyclonic too..great model!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Forget the bank holiday period folks, feast ya eyes on the bigger picture, the 12z at last bringing a bit of heat.... And if you don't like it, then get out of the kitchen....

gfs-0-240 (1).png

gfs-0-264 (1).png

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-0-324.png

gfs-1-288.png

gfs-1-324.png

Funny-summer-is-coming-picture-with-quote.jpg

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

12z Heading in right direction - that SW pull of warmer weather is clinging on and refuses to go away.   Good signs

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the FV3 takes us (not that a computer-model can actually take us anywhere!:oldgrin:) one step closer to HP Heaven:

image.thumb.png.1216709798a8ad81001ea2189e92dd76.png image.thumb.png.54a4ebbf54355fcca17066eebc5d64c9.png Great model!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...