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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The weather pattern is changing  , yes a very undulating jet stream  :gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Not much festive spirit from the cfs today..another green christmas!:santa-emoji:

cfs-2-5244.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick look at Monday. A day of sunshine and showers, in a the fresh northwesterly wind with temps variable but a shade under average

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8958400.thumb.png.5adf5b8a74e78c4479aa3279f2e1db04.png876191095_maxmon.thumb.png.1f234cecbf04ff2bc5be90ce8e97bd96.png

By midweek the NH pattern should be quite familiar with systems tracking around the subtropical high so continuing the unsettled theme but tending towards a N/S split

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9131200.thumb.png.089e3f2f3b18e760d3c23b4b4fdf7a28.pnggfs-nhemi-z250_speed-9131200.thumb.png.d805e7c80b810821b0717456ed90de9a.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Not much joy on the 00z runs today - cool and unsettled. Northern blocking remaining strong, AO predicted to go back negative again after a brief recovery. Sitting and waiting once more the name of the game.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 00z mean becomes increasingly settled and warmer (summery) the further ahead it goes!!!

GFSAVGEU00_234_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_282_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_306_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_330_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_354_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_378_1.png

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The 00Z still appears to be having difficulties with the changeover to proper summer synoptics; but at least the PV remnants look to be slowly fading::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.65bc999a6fa10008d234bba82f9d52ee.pngimage.thumb.png.b52e00c07f5fa8aeb7179f359fe113ef.png 

 

The FV3, on the other hand, wants to keep them around for a wee bit longer?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.6a77788ef29cb8e9ea1940826e731820.pngimage.thumb.png.4a17444c3c473e81f729c7fd819774fa.png

 

Ensembles aren't too bad:image.thumb.png.dd1a60e3dd79b787b8a14fa00c965a45.pngimage.thumb.png.2b58ed293b9d6c6e3750ae7ab89c6aa3.png

So, no easy Spring-to-summer transition, this year?:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm really impressed with the GEFS 00z mean longer term, mind you, I was yesterday too but then I have a positive outlook despite my conditions!!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The next couple of day's sees some good spells of sunshine with temps in the upper teens for most and probably inthe low 20s in the London area.

Rain continues in NE Scotland, but dry elsewhere from Friday the rain eases away from Scotland, but some showers are likely to break out further south with the weekend one of 2 halfs drier on Saturday then an increasing risk of rain or showers on Sunday in the north

Next week as per the ECM monthly turns a lot cooler and unsettled as low pressure takes over

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20190520_w2.png.0f9MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20190520_w2.thumb.

ECMOPEU00_120_2.thumb.png.0d3d69983cf616d03b6b21caffa36fe0.pngECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.fc584196b2acba1733dcb942652cc8ba.png

ECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.dcfec262df56dd69be9c9d2cf8c7fcc4.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.b6f6ed99db9b95602885891bca4a9a46.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Some interesting adjustments to the N Atlantic setup for D5-6 by GFs and to a lesser extent UKMO; trough no longer cutting off west of Azores to allow high pressure to build W & NW of the UK. 

Instead the Azores High gradually builds across Europe. Although I’m extrapolating hopefully in the case of UKMO.

ECM has no interest in this change but I’ve spotted that it’s been out of kilter with the MJO in recent days; it keeps taking it from the E Pacific/ N America to the Indian Ocean, but obs show it instead stalled out. GFS has been projecting much less MJO movement for the past few days and so has faired better - still some error though. I think this disparity was behind the Thu-Sat low development being completely dropped for this week; the longer the MJO remains in the W. Hemisphere, the more it works against setups that enable LPs diving down across the UK from the NW.

Something to keep an eye on - and not just for the near-term; the stall also feeds back onto the El Niño standing wave, reducing the odds of a sustained decay to neutral or Nina occurring before the autumn. That’s what we want to see with respect to having some good runs of warm summer weather in Jun-Aug 2019. Arctic blocking allowing of course... with that being on course for a record May monthly mean strength in 2019, one wonders whether it has established so fully in the atmosphere (from base to top) that the usual decay time of 4-8 weeks will be some way exceeded.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Interesting comparison between the Ecm 00z op / mean @ T+240 hours..I prefer the mean!

ECM1-240.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Maybe you have guessed that I'm accentuating the positives!!!

GFSC00EU00_288_2.png

GFSC00EU00_288_1.png

GFSP01EU00_288_1.png

GFSP02EU00_288_1.png

GFSP03EU00_288_1.png

GFSP06EU00_288_1.png

GFSP10EU00_288_1.png

GFSP13EU00_288_1.png

GFSP15EU00_288_2.png

GFSP16EU00_288_1.png

GFSP18EU00_288_2.png

GFSP19EU00_288_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Taking a snapshot of the first day of the meteorological summer..now which looks best...hmmmm difficult choice but I would have to say the Ecm..I mean Gfs!!!!..as for the other 2..!!

gem-0-240.png

ECM1-240.gif

gfs-0-252.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

06Z out till Friday...Nothing horrendous to speak-of::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.357153b450895a0bc1df0de0e6e89ca7.pngimage.thumb.png.a40c57fa338f270cbf603719f7788e6f.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh dear! Summer is over! 

image.thumb.png.8848ae7e228cd651ecc32f0f28032609.pngimage.thumb.png.9bab4c33b4899b3a5ce192eb49b255df.png 

Northern blocking for the next 93-years!image.thumb.png.31cdca2d294f13a1eb36c3f8a38675ab.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Morning all, got to say, that is a shocking amount of cold to our north so late in May:

ECM0-96.GIF?22-12

A sharper ridge through the north Atlantic could have resulted in a snowy surprise for northern areas ... or is there still time left for such a scenario to arise??? I note the "snow rows" on the GEFS ensembles make it as far as southern Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, got to say, that is a shocking amount of cold to our north so late in May:

ECM0-96.GIF?22-12

 

And I thought the artic was melting!!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, got to say, that is a shocking amount of cold to our north so late in May:

ECM0-96.GIF?22-12

A sharper ridge through the north Atlantic could have resulted in a snowy surprise for northern areas ... or is there still time left for such a scenario to arise??? I note the "snow rows" on the GEFS ensembles make it as far as southern Scotland.

It's happened before, MWB: image.thumb.png.e9d8cc8be85d1e059da40f558229ca11.pngimage.thumb.png.f3b70f3157a9dde6a769a6aa090bb858.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And I thought the artic was melting!!:shok:

Northern hemisphere view doesn't look quite so flattering though....
image.thumb.png.e9db88e71c2f0b46873d8ed71e750bbd.png

Cold end to May looking likely now... question is will we get an anticyclonic northerly as per the GFS, or something unsettled as per the ECM. Northern blocking proving persistent as the two ECM charts below are showing, if only it was winter.

image.thumb.png.0fdf05cbae008df9656b4ff4594bc84c.pngimage.thumb.png.077c8abe4f576ddc423f3ea160ab185a.png

I would put my money on the ECM, given how consistent its output has been.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I would put my money on the ECM, given how consistent its output has been.

The Ecm 00z op ends dire, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean doesnt!

ECM1-240.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Still no indication of rampant, unremitting cold, come the end of the GFS 06Z:

image.thumb.png.a73f4039c347b3db6c2b0cb9ac1e3bce.pngimage.thumb.png.4202e6a927dd922c0423c27e8790d1db.png 

By the same token, there's no sign of an imminent 1976-esque heatwave, either...Such is life!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Still no indication of rampant, unremitting cold, come the end of the GFS 06Z:

image.thumb.png.a73f4039c347b3db6c2b0cb9ac1e3bce.pngimage.thumb.png.4202e6a927dd922c0423c27e8790d1db.png 

By the same token, there's no sign of an imminent 1976-esque heatwave, either...Such is life!:shok:

Diminishing green snot is still worth celebrating

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