Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[ANYWEATHER]

The weather pattern is changing  , yes a very undulating jet stream  

[Frosty.]

Not much festive spirit from the cfs today..another green christmas!

[StormChaseUK]

18z certainly keeps going back to the early June plume option 

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and the north Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the Nottingham sounding for same time

Most of England and Wales will have a dry and sunny day today and it will get quite warm in south eastern regions but not quite everywhere. There is an upper front straddled across the middle of the country (as indicated on the sounding?) and it will be cloudy in the vicinity of this with some patchy rain. But by far the worse of the weather will once again be over northern Scotland where low pressure and a couple of fronts are in close attendance so cloudy with rain, heavy at times and quite windy. And with temps accordingly much lower

The rain and strong breeze will continue over northern Scotland overnight but dry elsewhere with a few mist.fog patches by morning

By midday tomorrow the low to the north east is centred east of Lerwick and the wrap around occlusion will continue to bring rain to the north east of Scotland  And to the west a complex frontal system, associated with the major trough in the western Atlantic, is struggling east around the ridge and brings cloud and some patchy rain to western regions. But elsewhere another dry and sunny day and again quite warm in the south east of England.

Over Thursday night and through Friday the fronts more or less peter out with just the odd trough around so another day of sunshine and just a few showers with temps a tad above average except for the far north of Scotland.

By Saturday another frontal system associated with the trough to the west is struggling around the ridge and this will bring cloud and some patchy rain to northern Ireland and western Scotland by midday. Elsewhere perhaps a tad cloudy with sunny intervals but temps still above average

Over saturday night and through Sunday the pressure from the west finally suppresses the ridge and the next frontal system brings more unsettled, and quite windy, weather to all with a shallow wave over northern Scotland and the cold front tracking south east down the country by midday.

Edited May 22, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

A quick look at Monday. A day of sunshine and showers, in a the fresh northwesterly wind with temps variable but a shade under average

By midweek the NH pattern should be quite familiar with systems tracking around the subtropical high so continuing the unsettled theme but tending towards a N/S split

 

[knocker]

A quick look at the rain Sunday with the ecm and temps Monday

[mb018538]

Not much joy on the 00z runs today - cool and unsettled. Northern blocking remaining strong, AO predicted to go back negative again after a brief recovery. Sitting and waiting once more the name of the game.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean becomes increasingly settled and warmer (summery) the further ahead it goes!!!

Edited May 22, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The ecm 5-10 anomaly is not a surprise, albeit not paricularly welcome, with a rather chilly potentially unstable trough over the UK

[Methuselah]

The 00Z still appears to be having difficulties with the changeover to proper summer synoptics; but at least the PV remnants look to be slowly fading:

 

 

The FV3, on the other hand, wants to keep them around for a wee bit longer?

 

Ensembles aren't too bad:

So, no easy Spring-to-summer transition, this year?

[Frosty.]

I'm really impressed with the GEFS 00z mean longer term, mind you, I was yesterday too but then I have a positive outlook despite my conditions!!

[Summer Sun]

The next couple of day's sees some good spells of sunshine with temps in the upper teens for most and probably inthe low 20s in the London area.

Rain continues in NE Scotland, but dry elsewhere from Friday the rain eases away from Scotland, but some showers are likely to break out further south with the weekend one of 2 halfs drier on Saturday then an increasing risk of rain or showers on Sunday in the north

Next week as per the ECM monthly turns a lot cooler and unsettled as low pressure takes over

 

[Singularity]

Some interesting adjustments to the N Atlantic setup for D5-6 by GFs and to a lesser extent UKMO; trough no longer cutting off west of Azores to allow high pressure to build W & NW of the UK. 

Instead the Azores High gradually builds across Europe. Although I’m extrapolating hopefully in the case of UKMO.

ECM has no interest in this change but I’ve spotted that it’s been out of kilter with the MJO in recent days; it keeps taking it from the E Pacific/ N America to the Indian Ocean, but obs show it instead stalled out. GFS has been projecting much less MJO movement for the past few days and so has faired better - still some error though. I think this disparity was behind the Thu-Sat low development being completely dropped for this week; the longer the MJO remains in the W. Hemisphere, the more it works against setups that enable LPs diving down across the UK from the NW.

Something to keep an eye on - and not just for the near-term; the stall also feeds back onto the El Niño standing wave, reducing the odds of a sustained decay to neutral or Nina occurring before the autumn. That’s what we want to see with respect to having some good runs of warm summer weather in Jun-Aug 2019. Arctic blocking allowing of course... with that being on course for a record May monthly mean strength in 2019, one wonders whether it has established so fully in the atmosphere (from base to top) that the usual decay time of 4-8 weeks will be some way exceeded.

[Frosty.]

Interesting comparison between the Ecm 00z op / mean @ T+240 hours..I prefer the mean!

[Frosty.]

Maybe you have guessed that I'm accentuating the positives!!!

[Frosty.]

Taking a snapshot of the first day of the meteorological summer..now which looks best...hmmmm difficult choice but I would have to say the Ecm..I mean Gfs!!!!..as for the other 2..!!

[Methuselah]

06Z out till Friday...Nothing horrendous to speak-of:

 

[Methuselah]

Oh dear! Summer is over! 

 

Northern blocking for the next 93-years!

[Man With Beard]

Morning all, got to say, that is a shocking amount of cold to our north so late in May:

A sharper ridge through the north Atlantic could have resulted in a snowy surprise for northern areas ... or is there still time left for such a scenario to arise??? I note the "snow rows" on the GEFS ensembles make it as far as southern Scotland.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, got to say, that is a shocking amount of cold to our north so late in May:

 

And I thought the artic was melting!!

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, got to say, that is a shocking amount of cold to our north so late in May:

A sharper ridge through the north Atlantic could have resulted in a snowy surprise for northern areas ... or is there still time left for such a scenario to arise??? I note the "snow rows" on the GEFS ensembles make it as far as southern Scotland.

It's happened before, MWB: 

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And I thought the artic was melting!!

Northern hemisphere view doesn't look quite so flattering though....

Cold end to May looking likely now... question is will we get an anticyclonic northerly as per the GFS, or something unsettled as per the ECM. Northern blocking proving persistent as the two ECM charts below are showing, if only it was winter.

I would put my money on the ECM, given how consistent its output has been.

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I would put my money on the ECM, given how consistent its output has been.

The Ecm 00z op ends dire, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean doesnt!

Edited May 22, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Methuselah]

Still no indication of rampant, unremitting cold, come the end of the GFS 06Z:

 

By the same token, there's no sign of an imminent 1976-esque heatwave, either...Such is life!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Still no indication of rampant, unremitting cold, come the end of the GFS 06Z:

 

By the same token, there's no sign of an imminent 1976-esque heatwave, either...Such is life!

Diminishing green snot is still worth celebrating