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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Potential for a more prolonged late May warm spell there, just need the high to build over us and keep them pesky fronts at bay. 50/50 chance.:oldrolleyes:

gfs-0-198.png

ECM1-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean is looking nae bad next week with increasing ridging bringing fine and pleasantly warm weather!

GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_192_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM clusters on a knife-edge whether to go with last nights style evolution, or this mornings:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051500_240.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking further ahead towards the end of May there are some good signs from the GEFS 6z for those of us (the majority) who prefer fine and warm weather..the azores high could become friendly!

GFSAVGEU06_318_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

GFSP08EU06_372_1.png

GFSP10EU06_372_1.png

GFSP13EU06_372_1.png

GFSP17EU06_372_1.png

GFSP17EU06_372_2.png

GFSP19EU06_372_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the 06Z ensembles don't look too bad:

 

image.thumb.png.e5c56d5464cec30ddaed220239b7d707.pngimage.thumb.png.265fc8b4a591770b0158bf8389fa463f.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And the 06Z ensembles don't look too bad:

 

image.thumb.png.e5c56d5464cec30ddaed220239b7d707.pngimage.thumb.png.265fc8b4a591770b0158bf8389fa463f.png 

Certainly no heat wave either - wonder if some of us in the south might go whole month without breaking 25c ?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

So to the 12s then and here's the ICON in full:

anim_dzg3.gif

So turning unsettled into the weekend but becoming more settled and warm into next week, but the scenario looks like there may be some uncertainty, the ridge, high pressure doesn't look strong, but it's a good start, only goes to T180.  UKMO up next...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO T144 looks very supportive of warm settled weather becoming the form horse as next week evolves, looks good to me:

image.thumb.jpg.7934ca85b316cd604edd635aa2567925.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

To me the ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours looks more settled or less unsettled than the 0h in the same timeframe..for what it's worth i think next week will bring some fine and warm weather.

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

To me the ukmo 12h @ T+144 hours looks more settled or less unsettled than the 0z in the same timeframe..for what it's worth i think next week will bring some fine and warm weather.

UW144-21.gif

Yes, Karl, and I think the low camped out west, stronger than on the ICON, will serve us well in pumping up some warmth and ensure settled conditions for the remainder of the week.  

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, and I think the low camped out west, stronger than on the ICON, will serve us well in pumping up some warmth and ensure settled conditions for the remainder of the week.  

Fingers crossed Mike !!

My only issue is the amount of Northern blocking still being advertised -i would like to see those heights across Greenland being dismantled soon.

EC will be interesting tonight, i'm off work from next wed for a week so hoping the 00z run is the way forward..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, and I think the low camped out west, stronger than on the ICON, will serve us well in pumping up some warmth and ensure settled conditions for the remainder of the week.  

Certainly signs of warming up following the briefest of cooler blips!

 

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7 (1).gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Now this does look promising!

image.thumb.png.ddf3724b8ccbccc381747783f2def97e.pngimage.thumb.png.8c97d789fde85fc721797c3f88db3d54.png :oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fingers crossed Mike !!

My only issue is the amount of Northern blocking still being advertised -i would like to see those heights across Greenland being dismantled soon.

EC will be interesting tonight, i'm off work from next wed for a week so hoping the 00z run is the way forward..

Hi NWS, I understand the issue with Northern blocking, it should now be dissipating (it's a result of the fairly extreme final stratospheric warming we've had this year) but that is slow to show up on the models, I'll be the first to admit.  

However other things are in play, and even with high lat blocking, I see no signal at all for the kind of cement mixer low over the UK as per 2007, and to a lesser extent 2012, hemmed in by high pressure on three sides.  GFS 12z indicates how northern blocking can coexist with an Azores ridge asserting it's presence:

anim_wwz5.gif

It is not a usual synoptic, but should give some nice weather next week, but should give us plenty to discuss as we try to discern the main pattern going into summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It was touch-and-go there, for a minute, but the trusty GFS came through. Next stop FV3!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.a209cc601e9a2be5f4ce4c91ec12c041.pngimage.thumb.png.951679ba141726f391722631a3edbf7e.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It's getting a bit tense according to FV3 in the jetstream, here T300 and T312:

image.thumb.jpg.2ade1a15a82db6919aa42c2a329053c0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3f493716a692f2d0e45f2d7e9f72758a.jpg

Wonder if they are arguing about Brexit? 

meanwhile the GEM has this at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.09b84e24bbdb04bc5179836bb8ba0514.jpg

Yes heights ridging to Greenland but also a nose of pressure towards the UK from the south.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Next stop FV3!:oldgrin:

 

The FV3 is a good model, but only in the twilight zone!:shok:

Seriously though the 12z FV3 comes good with high pressure / strong azores ridging during late May....you may wonder why I mention the twilight zone..well the answer is simple, it's one of my favourite programmes and I just watched an episode before posting this..glad that's settled!!

GFSPARAEU12_216_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_240_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_288_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_312_1.png

 

 

GFSPARAEU12_336_1.png

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Post not displaying properly (or could be my phone)
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's a model of infinite brilliance...but only in short bursts:


image.thumb.png.da9cfe87805db62acd874e425b02eeae.png
image.thumb.png.a1d8acded47e1e04a80441e15b6d1929.png
image.thumb.png.2d20c080046490af46b1986c1edadc1d.png Still no dominant HLB though!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Good news, the GEFS 12z mean becomes.. ridgy  from the azores next week onwards so there is potential for another high rather like the one we have had so far this week during the last third of may!!

GFSAVGEU12_168_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_192_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_216_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_264_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_288_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_336_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Maybe something like this, or something hot and sultry!

GFSP12EU12_270_1.png

GFSP19EU12_306_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM out  to T144' let's compare with UKMO at same time,ECM on the left:

image.thumb.jpg.770d1e4ab5e1991850a7ce2fab740104.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.29c07d4ac7b699fa318e31da61c3b516.jpg

Similar, yes!  But with the ECM we see the next few days...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I've only just had a chance to look at the Camborne midday sounding. There was some very interesting upper and medium cloud around this morning with some very thick Ci and what looked like very high Ac

2019051512.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.79264fd71eab7f235506121ee58537b4.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
38 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Maybe something like this, or something hot and sultry!

GFSP12EU12_270_1.png

GFSP19EU12_306_2.png

By the look of those charts, it'll not be that long before someone posts about their liking for 'hot Julies'!:oops:

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