Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

There might be high pressure   but some areas in the next 10  days will see between 50-30 mm of rain     maybe a little more for those in the South west  and South Wales.     also Temps in towards the end of that period are Mid Teens at best.  Of course things could change   but it does look like a period of wet weather  (according to that one opp run)  

A lot of folks were pointing out how temps this week would be mid teens at best... And its more like low to mid 20s! Plenty of sunny spells at this time of the year and temps will go above 20c nearly everytime! 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

A lot of folks were pointing out how temps this week would be mid teens at best... And its more like low to mid 20s! Plenty of sunny spells at this time of the year and temps will go above 20c nearly everytime! 

You're right, the strength of the sun and the large amounts of it are working wonders with the current set-up!

[weirpig]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

A lot of folks were pointing out how temps this week would be mid teens at best... And its more like low to mid 20s! Plenty of sunny spells at this time of the year and temps will go above 20c nearly everytime! 

Not sure  what thats got to do with anything.  The GFS 6z run  from which model i was commenting on  quite clearly shows mid teens   i currently dont own   a crystal ball  so yes it may look different the time we get there.  but as it stands  the run shows rain  mainly across southern central Britain  with temps  around average.  ie Mid teens.    

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean it's an improving picture next week with an increasing probability of strong ridging / high pressure!

 

And for anyone who missed it, late May could be nice.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The 1115UTC high res, MODIS (courtesy of the Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) and the UK chart. A fair amount of Ci down here and quite breezy

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not sure  what thats got to do with anything.  The GFS 6z run  from which model i was commenting on  quite clearly shows mid teens   i currently dont own   a crystal ball  so yes it may look different the time we get there.  but as it stands  the run shows rain  mainly across southern central Britain  with temps  around average.  ie Mid teens.    

My point being the uppers may suggest mid teens, but like this current spell, they could easily be well above in sunshine. And  all I'm seeing is a really settled and warmer end to May! 

[weirpig]

44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My point being the uppers may suggest mid teens, but like this current spell, they could easily be well above in sunshine. And  all I'm seeing is a really settled and warmer end to May! 

Of course they could be above.  its a week a way and more.  it could easily be a very wet and a  cool end to May  its just to far out to be sure one way or another   i was basing my opinion on the 6z and its ensembles    infact going by the ensembles the Op run is nearly a outlier at the end of the run   with the mean  showing  cool conditions   a far cry from warm and settled. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

34 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Of course they could be above.  its a week a way and more.  it could easily be a very wet and a  cool end to May  its just to far out to be sure one way or another   i was basing my opinion on the 6z and its ensembles    infact going by the ensembles the Op run is nearly a outlier at the end of the run   with the mean  showing  cool conditions   a far cry from warm and settled. 

I'm not gonna argue with a fellow wolves fan looking at the ECM we can clearly see the pressure drop in coming days but overall it ends up around 1015mb or just above, not bad Considering it would average around 1013 at this time of the year... 

[knocker]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

The 1115UTC high res, MODIS (courtesy of the Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) and the UK chart. A fair amount of Ci down here and quite breezy

The Ci level shows up pretty well on the midday sounding. And what have we here? Subsidence and CAA in the boundary layer. The 850mb temp 10.5C and surface 14.2C

Edited May 14, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Just watching the ukmo 12h unfold its clear we are on track for a changeable outlook and Exeter also used the word changeable several times!.. Our uk anticyclone will be replaced by a trough and sunshine & showers will become the main weather type, some heavy with thunder but following a brief dip in temperatures later this week it looks like becoming a bit warmer again so feeling very nice in the sunny periods between showers.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Right then, after an utterly spiffing day on the farm, I'm back...The 06Z ends on a warm note with very little wind:

 

The FV3, on the other hand has, yet again, found some cold Arctic air to throw our way?

The ensembles are not too bad, I suppose; though the precip-line might be showing alarming signs of tachycardia. No need to call a Code Blue just yet, however!

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term Gem 12z i'm afraid I'm going to have to upgrade from changeable to unsettled although changeable is by definition unsettled..let's face it, either it's settled or it's unsettled isn't it hmmmm..glad that's settled then!

Edited May 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

12Z ends on not too bad a note; the green snot is starting to dry-up:

 

[Frosty.]

The FV3 12z ends with high pressure..what a great model!

[Methuselah]

Isn't it superb! 

[knocker]

Merely an observation but this evening's gfs drops the upper trough into the north west Atlantic next week promoting amplification of the subtropical high, but unfortunately too far to the west of the UK. Thus the country stays under the western flank of the trough with the surface win veering North easterly across the country and temps generally below average with perhaps just the NW escaping. Of course subject to adjustment.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Isn't it superb! 

The tears of joy are flowing Ed..and it's only 384 hours away!!

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The tears of joy are flowing Ed..and it's only 384 hours away!!

Nah...it's the hay fever! 

[Frosty.]

Let's accentuate the positive

Eliminate the negative

Latch on to the affirmative

Don't mess with Mister In-Between!!

The GEFS 12z has some positives in various timeframes longer term!!

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

12Z ensembles have arrived; and they're not all that bad:

 

Rainfall pulse has quickened too, so it's:  

[ICE COLD]

If only it was winter cold lovers . 

Even tho I’ll take these charts over hot and humid ones . A nice cool summer would suit me fine .

[Mike Poole]

Downgrades this evening for summery weather after the end of this week. Here's ECM 12z in full

By T240 it has gone the full high lat block scenario,  one final time, maybe?  

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z T+240= oh dear..actually the rot sets in well before then..another classic wintry set up months too late as usual.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[Stuie]

Ok, been watching this forum/model watching since winter but slightly scratching my head. In the search for cold where FI charts are slated/never happen, we are looking at FI charts showing dross weather....

I would have thought that we all know FI charts just never come to fruition so why are they being brought up? Yes you can look for trends but worrying about them is odd to me.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Ok, been watching this forum/model watching since winter but slightly scratching my head. In the search for cold where FI charts are slated/never happen, we are looking at FI charts showing dross weather....

I would have thought that we all know FI charts just never come to fruition so why are they being brought up? Yes you can look for trends but worrying about them is odd to me.

Actually stu this is a credible and very good post, I've said on here many of times that the model runs are over analized to death!! And tbh I am not seeing any trust worthy pattern or signal devolop! Just the other day ECM looked great, now all of a sudden its showing HLB, which if you ask me leaves alot to be desired.. Has for GFS, can we trust it, for Instance the 0z will show that things are looking up, beore the 6z plays it all down!! And it's like this daily!! I said the other day the models have not got a handle on things at all, and that's always the case when HLB is in the mix. What I think personally is within the next couple of days things will again be looking more rosey!! But your correct talking about what the models are showing in 10+ days is pretty pointless, and tbh.... Very tiring...

Edited May 14, 2019 by Mattwolves