Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

If you take a look at the ECM at day 10,then take a look a couple of days on with the GFS 6z, it's obvious someone is barking up the wrong tree! We have been relatively fortunate with good spells of weather over Bank Holiday periods the past 12 months, so I think I will reserve judgement over this for a while longer! 

[Frosty.]

The Cfs looks a lot better in Fi!!beasterly for christmas

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Joking aside Karl that chart would bring  netweather to a grinding halt, but you just never no!!

[Methuselah]

The FV3 could be worse, I suppose: at least there's no dominant Greenland HP to worry about!

 

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The FV3 could be worse, I suppose: at least there's no dominant Greenland HP to worry about!

 

Certainly a garden colour Ed

[Methuselah]

What is it with the OP? 

Temps between +5 and +8C? That's just plain dumb! 

Edited May 13, 2019 by Norrance
unnecessary gif

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Temps between +5 and +8C? That's just plain dumb! 

That's a heatwave for aberdeen.

[Frosty.]

Sorry to say the GEFS 6z mean is nothing like as warm as the 00z and it's much less ridgy too, it looks cool and changeable and of course changeable is by definition unsettled..I'm actually shocked by the difference between the 0z / 6z mean !!..could just be a wobble of course.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You pay far too much attention to computer models, Karl.

Yes Ed and of course I shouldn't be comparing the 6z with the 0z, I should be comparing with yesterday's 6z except i can't remember that run..model fatigue!!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the cfs 0z there are very good signs for June!!

[knocker]

Temps a little lower along the south coast at 1300 UTC A fair bit of Ci here, and a nifty breeze, that is at 30,000ft

Edited May 13, 2019 by knocker

[johnholmes]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Temps a little lower along the south coast at 1300 UTC A fair bit of Ci here, and a nifty breeze, that is at 30,000ft

?? 20kt at 30,000 ft?

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

?? 20kt at 30,000 ft?

Windier on the surface John. Mind we tend to get an enhanced wind from this direction to do with the Carns downwind.

[Methuselah]

Out on the farm, tomorrow - should be a good day! 

I wonder what next Tuesday will bring?

[Methuselah]

Sunday still looks okay for some much-needed rain; it might even get time to sink-in too?

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ukmo 12h the next few days have been well covered..it's gorgeous!!..wednesday will be the warmest day this week but then there are changes as our uk high drifts away N / NE and pressure starts to fall as lower heights approach from the east / southeast by Friday and the weekend across southern uk with some rain which then gives way to sunshine and showers, some heavy with thunder and by the weekend we have a filling trough over the uk and following a brief slight dip in temperatures later this week it starts to warm up again.

Edited May 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Dear God I thought the Gfs 12z operational was meh but the FV3 is worse, it thinks it's still winter at the end of May!!

Anyway, the operational does have some fine moments but nothing as good as the next few days!

Edited May 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

The Op doesn't end too bad; at least the HP is to our south?

 

Expect the worst and plan for the worst? What could go wrong...the FV3!

[Sky Full]

GEM is doing its best to keep high pressure in the vicinity of the U.K. right through to the end of its run, rebuilding the ridge from the west after the 20th May and keeping temperatures on or a little above average for the time of year.....

I've always had a soft spot for this model - now I know why!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The Op doesn't end too bad; at least the HP is to our south?

 

Expect the worst and plan for the worst? What could go wrong...the FV3!

never happen that, FV3 I don't rate, that synoptic setup to me looks more like Late Dec/Jan, than late May?

Edited May 13, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Methuselah]

FV3's really 'avin a larf here, innit! For what we a not about to receive, may the Lord make us truly thankful?

 

 

[Methuselah]

But the ensembles are better than this morning's:

 

[Frosty.]

Just looked at the GEFS 12z mean and for the most part it indicates decent temperatures with +5 plus 850's....rather warm at times further south and probably occasionally feeling humid, some weak ridging but it's not a settled run apart from a settled start and some cooler atlantic weather would affect mainly the n / nw of the uk longer term with potential for some heavy showers / thunderstorms further s / se.. a mixed bag you could say..well that's what I say anyway!! 

Edited May 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

I see nobody is rushing to comment on the Ecm 12z..it's actually not too bad, for the most part the temperatures look decent and whilst there would be some rain and showers there would be spells of dry and sunny weather too, however, by far the best part of the run is tomorrow and wednesday.. a mixed bag thereafter.

Edited May 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

It’s not particularly appealing, probably explains the lack of comments. It’s neither one thing nor the other. At least it’s not looking especially cold to go with it this time.