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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Well covered Karl, yes the ECM shows plenty of ridging going on towards the end, and like stated before, a complete lack of the Atlantic... So all in all, its looking pretty good...

 

 

 

ECM1-72 (1).gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As per the operational, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes more ridgy again later.

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm 5-10 anomaly this evening pretty much as expected which in reality boils down to the UK just about being under the umbrella,  and thus in the northern quadrant, of the low pressure to the south. Ego an easterly component to the wind and sunny intervals and showers with temps probably a tad above average

ecmwf_z500aMean_nhem_6.thumb.png.cac7604a03d706b5320326b4e5b01c2e.pngt192.thumb.png.8e263b21eb7ad0a1d6ce747dbc995a55.pngecmwf-europe_wide-t2m_c_anom_5day-8526400.thumb.png.03688edaf7d3090ea00c33b4b3f21ead.png

This evening's EPS mean anomaly for the period is not a million miles away from this with the high pressure migrating west to Greenland and the Canadian vortex/trough still playing an important role in the north west Atlantic Thus the strong upper flow diverging in mid Atlantic leaving the UK in a col

But in the ext period the pattern loses a lot of amplitude and although there are still positive anomalies over Greenland/Iceland with a ridge, the flow across the Atlantic is more zonal, albeit quite weak. This wouldn't portend anything drastic weather wise and temps still just above average.

5-10.thumb.png.a3f63c14dcecd712545aaa9fab1f768a.png9-14.thumb.png.ad4e0d5ef28d75d298c8ed0708fbfad6.pngindex.thumb.png.7f8134ef987cce80d972caa981c470d0.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Nothing desperately bad with the output, the south more favoured for rain and there could a slice of the county which could unlucky with any bands of rain slowly moving north. Temperatures like rainfall will be okay except under the rain where it will feel chilly.

week 2 - tentative signs that the Azores high could ridge north east enough to cut off the southern arm of the jet which would allow the euro low to fill and sink towards Italy which would allow warmer and drier weather to develop.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

An improving end to the Gem 12z too with the azores high / ridge having something to say!!..but why am I even talking about day 10 when days 1,2,3 and potentially 4 are looking so damn good under high pressure with tons of sunshine to come!!

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

An improving end to the Gem 12z too with the azores high / ridge having something to say!!..but why am I even talking about day 10 when days 1,2,3 and potentially 4 are looking so damn good under high pressure with tons of sunshine to come!!

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

Indeed Karl: the outlook just keep getting better and better!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
5 hours ago, knocker said:

It might be an idea to hang fire until after the fax update later this evening, may get an idea where any fronts are, and then the midnight outputs. But still your best bet remains keeping an eye on the METO updates

Thanks. Still very confusing, GFS V3 has now postponed the front moving in from the west until Saturday, leaving Friday completely dry. Standard GFS still showing rain for most of the day. ICON completely dry even into the next weekend. Ukmo looks reasonably dry too with high pressure pressing down from the north... ecmwf 12 looking wet still...Who's going to win? And it's only 100h away too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GFS Op is clearly an outlier, for a few days anyway, according to the 00Z GEFS ensembles::search:

image.thumb.png.47ec5cb502dbacf9cae8026aa5df25dc.pngimage.thumb.png.5d839507f5ccf5768589e6900b7af29f.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC day 10 shows why i made the right call not to go to southern  spain next week!!

image.thumb.png.609606545debf18ecf683b05e9fe12c8.png

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Decent end to the Ecm 00z op / mean with ridging and warmer temperatures returning following the slightly cooler unsettled blip towards the end of this week..in the meantime, glorious weather for most of this week!

ECM1-240.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the mid / longer term GEFS 00z mean, nothing wrong with the temperatures, it could be rather warm, especially further south and humid at times. There's plenty of fine weather associated with ridging but also a chance of heavy showers or even thunderstorms from time to time!

GFSAVGEU00_186_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_234_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_258_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_282_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_282_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_306_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_330_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_378_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

A glorious few days ahead, could be seeing 24-25c in a few places come Wednesday, more especially NE areas! Some showery rain possible by end of the week, and perhaps some thundery potential towards the SE come the weekend with warmer uppers encroaching! Perhaps becoming more settled again next week, all in all not bad..

gfs-0-138.png

gfs-1-138.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Would be interesting if we had an azores scandy high link up! Not out of the question. 

ECM1-216 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the ukmo 0h..short term..glorious high pressure and unbroken sunshine!..wednesday will be the warmest day this week and the ridge holding until later this week but it gradually turns more unsettled and a bit cooler from the east across southern uk for friday and the weekend but it starts to warm up again through the weekend, especially in any sunshine. 

UW24-21.gif

UW48-21.gif

UW48-7.gif

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS is looking good: warmer with some rain, for the weekend.:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.3014f1c764df75f8d1b0b090cc5eeabb.pngimage.thumb.png.8339edf34be3ea46dd60b32ea1897a3a.png Shades of 2019?

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Studying the EC clusters this morning, we begin at D10 with that quite obvious positive anomaly to the NW and slightly negative anomaly over Europe, but then as we go through D11-D15 we tend to lose the negative anomalies over Europe except in minor clusters. This suggests not only a fairly quite Atlantic but an eventual resurgence in temperatures over European mainland, which, without deep Atlantic lows in the picture, may influence the UK too. Certainly I would favour an above average over a below average end to the month, without being particularly hot.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051300_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051300_300.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051300_360.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh, darn it! Summer's officially over!:gathering:

image.thumb.png.4ea63c9c9fe6b64f595ab48ba53be405.pngimage.thumb.png.f18298604b21bf97192a1576993f6192.png 

Doesn't end too great, either...just as well it's still Spring, then?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.30f052399231de650103ecaeb7920986.pngimage.thumb.png.e51257d3dc011014d458cd513c521cb1.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh, darn it! Summer's officially over!:gathering:

image.thumb.png.4ea63c9c9fe6b64f595ab48ba53be405.pngimage.thumb.png.f18298604b21bf97192a1576993f6192.png 

Doesn't end too great, either...just as well it's still Spring, then?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.30f052399231de650103ecaeb7920986.pngimage.thumb.png.e51257d3dc011014d458cd513c521cb1.png

Just has well its the fantasy island FV3 Pete!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Just has well its the fantasy island FV3 Pete!

Too much green snot for my liking on the longer term 6z operational / 6z FV3.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Too much green snot for my liking on the longer term 6z operational / 6z FV3.

Thing is Karl this model shows literally the same outcome 12 months of the year. If the FV3 was to be believed, the UK would be considered an Arctic state...

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