Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

27 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Didn’t the same say go for a colder winter with extensive HLB. Well see how that went, again it’s a snapshot in time and background signals will change, as far as I’m concerned means nothing unsure why such gravitas is given, to how summer will evolve, a warmer than average summer, is always much more likely than cooler.

You persist about warm weather endlessly, I’m still waiting for it! It says a lot when my best warm spell was in February in winter, it’s now last month of spring, I sense you think there is going to be a summer 2018 redux you may be sorely disappointed in that case, which is more unordinary than a cool/wet one.

I think this post is a little unfair based on the winter forecasts being miles out... You keep saying your still waiting for warmer conditions, well we have already had 2 notably warmer spells this year... And may I remind you, that its still actually only the 11th of May last time I looked, which gives us quite a considerable amount of time to get some very warm conditions bedded in.. 

Edited May 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Didn’t the same say go for a colder winter with extensive HLB. Well see how that went, again it’s a snapshot in time and background signals will change, as far as I’m concerned means nothing unsure why such gravitas is given, to how summer will evolve, a warmer than average summer, is always much more likely than cooler.

You persist about warm weather endlessly, I’m still waiting for it! It says a lot when my best warm spell was in February in winter, it’s now last month of spring, I sense you think there is going to be a summer 2018 redux you may be sorely disappointed in that case, which is more unordinary than a cool/wet one.

Thank you for shooting the messenger!  

Yes I do think this summer will have some similarities and differences to last year, I've spelt that out in some detail on here.  And if it doesn't happen I won't be 'sorely disappointed' I will just get wet!

ICON 12z T180:

I think this backs the trend from yesterday's 12z runs away from building heights towards Greenland, which is what I will be looking for from the rest of the 12s  in the day 10 timeframe.  

[Frosty.]

39 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Got to laugh at that, Karl, well spotted.  +20 T850s over most of the south of England would be something special.

Indeed mike but that was actually the 2m temperatures, this is the 850's chart that I didn't post but it's still pretty warm.

Edited May 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed mike but that was actually the 2m temperatures, this is the 850's chart that I didn't post but it's still pretty warm.

Yep, mea culpa, got that wrong!  Still pretty warm as you say!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon 12z looking a little more promising with not so much of the heights building North over Greenland, it looks more like a scandy block shaping up to me!! This could eventually bring some much warmer conditions from the continent... One to watch for sure

Edited May 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Icon 12z looking a little more promising with not so much of the heights building North over Greenland, it looks more like a scandy block shaping up to me!! This could eventually bring some much warmer conditions from the continent... One to watch for sure

GFS also liking a Scandi. Apart from some haar/sea fret, over A252's house, things don't look too bad?

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think the GFS 12s are also taking the high away from Greenland, this looks more promising folks... 

Ps... Pete read my mind... All great forecasters think alike

Edited May 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I think this post is a little unfair based on the winter forecasts being miles out... You keep saying your still waiting for warmer conditions, well we have already had 2 notably warmer spells this year... And may I remind you, that its still actually only the 11th of May last time I looked, which gives us quite a considerable amount of time to get some very warm conditions bedded in.. 

Just an observation even met office contingency report with best brains and NWP at disposal for winter, favoured a colder frontloaded winter? Reading this thread warm spells have often eluded, to something much more average and uninspiring. I am saying nothing of summer, clearly the base pattern seen in late May continued into the summer and it is quite possible the start of June may carry with this theme, there hasn’t been nothing particularly notable. February was increadible, however often fleeting occasions, one week of madness amongst general mediocre. I have yet to reach 25C, and it looks likely it will not be June at earliest this is unusual for this location. Seems we are going to see a continuation of the less warm easterlies for a little while yet. Plenty of HLB at least in medium outlook so it looks after an improvement seen shortly it is going to to take a wee dive, question is for how long?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Personally Daniel I think things are on the upturn, I mean it's red hot on my back garden today and it around high teens at a push! The sun now really packs a punch, even with average uppers! I think if we move this high away from Greenland, things will quickly warm up. 

[Frosty.]

I'm not going to moan about the deterioration at the end of the ukmo 12h run, i'm going to enjoy the pleasantly warm anticyclonic spell which looks strong up to and including wednesday and may even stretch into thursday..longer for scotland, especially the far north and the far n / nw may reach 24c in places for a time next week!!

Edited May 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Next Sunday could be warm by night and not so warm, by day; a better chance of some sustained rainfall, around here, too?

 

[johnholmes]

46 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Just an observation even met office contingency report with best brains and NWP at disposal for winter, favoured a colder frontloaded winter? Reading this thread warm spells have often eluded, to something much more average and uninspiring. I am saying nothing of summer, clearly the base pattern seen in late May continued into the summer and it is quite possible the start of June may carry with this theme, there hasn’t been nothing particularly notable. February was increadible, however often fleeting occasions, one week of madness amongst general mediocre. I have yet to reach 25C, and it looks likely it will not be June at earliest this is unusual for this location. Seems we are going to see a continuation of the less warm easterlies for a little while yet. Plenty of HLB at least in medium outlook so it looks after an improvement seen shortly it is going to to take a wee dive, question is for how long?

 

 

re the first sentence, again not really supported by acrual evidence. Not got all needed but this link suggests your comment is not correct.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v2.pdf

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

A non descriptive Summer is about to unfold...

summer is over before it's begun..hmmm  thanks for your expert input!!

PS..any charts to back up your thoughts?

[Methuselah]

12Z ends okay...Just beware the 'killer blob' of -5C uppers, a few hundred miles SW of Iceland: it's got 2007 written all over it!

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Next Sunday could be warm by night and not so warm, by day; a better chance of some sustained rainfall, around here, too?

 

Wimbledon 2019 'preparations' exhibition to try court 1 roof, wouldn't be a bad thing I suppose

[Mike Poole]

Well looking at the GFS and GEM at T240 the Greenland option has not yet been killed off:

So we wait again as to how this will pan out.  Great model drama!

[Mapantz]

Several nonsense posts removed. Any weather organisation posts without any model input to go with them are not for in here. The same goes for moaning about the weather in your back yard. Thanks.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

The JMA 3 month outlook now looks poor for uk sustained heat....I'm only surmising but I reckon were in for a Summer of cool northern blocking...We will see.

Jma?..  say no more.. I never even look at that.

[Mike Poole]

GEFS mean prefers the heights over Scandi T240:

I think it may still be a couple of days before the models reliably resolve the direction of travel.

[Methuselah]

The FV3 (being as thoroughly lamentable as it is) has less-warm uppers for next weekend's unsettled period:

 

 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

re the first sentence, again not really supported by acrual evidence. Not got all needed but this link suggests your comment is not correct.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v2.pdf

I’m sure in the later December release never mind irrelevant I’m not here to argue...  

too early for much direction in early summer but GFS 12z keeps a stubborn trough in our vicinity stuck in the mud by the Greenland blocking, not so bad in southeast it does look there is going to a be a split in our weather. Which may at first see the best of weather in west and then reverse to more normal south and east. A quite changeable spring. 

l

Edited May 11, 2019 by Polar Maritime
It's a discussion..

[Frosty.]

Looking towards the end of May the GEFS 12z shows some absolute filth but a sprinkling of summery potential too!

Edited May 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

And whoomph as if by magic, the warm 850s have gone from the 12z...….

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

48 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

The JMA 3 month outlook now looks poor for uk sustained heat....I'm only surmising but I reckon were in for a Summer of cool northern blocking...We will see.

JMA = Just Messing Around

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

I’m sure in the later December release never mind irrelevant I’m not here to argue...  

too early for much direction in early summer but GFS 12z keeps a stubborn trough in our vicinity stuck in the mud by the Greenland blocking, not so bad in southeast it does look there is going to a be a split in our weather. Which may at first see the best of weather in west and then reverse to more normal south and east. A quite changeable spring. 

l

Just to put this to bed once and for all as quite a few folk have had opinions on it...this was the updated (14/12/2018) forecast for January, February and March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

So you were correct...plus let’s not begin to decipher the 30 day outlooks for Winter as they were abysmal with regards to accuracy.

Hopefully the Summer outlook Mike posted is spot on! 

In the meantime a glorious week ahead up here in Western Scotland - other places too! Bring on the sun and warmth!!! 

Cheers! 

Edited May 11, 2019 by Mr Frost