Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[knocker]

Meanwhile back at the ranch and high pressure is set to be influential over the next few days with plenty of sunshine and the temps creeping up in most areas. Eastern and southern coastal districts may not get the full benefit of this.

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

Today will start sunny in most areas and once any patchy mist and frost has cleared this will be the case through the day and feeling quite pleasant in the light airs. Perhaps not so much in the north east and down the east coast. But there is the odd trough around in the east and showers will pop up here through the day which could be quite heavy with hail and thunder in the mix.

The showers will dissipate through the evening and overnight resulting in a clear, calm, night with a fairly widespread frost.

By Sunday the high cell has settled over the country, centred adjacent to Kings Lynn, so a sunny day and warming up a tad with the exception of the north east and the east coast.

Monday another warm and pleasant day, with the usual caveat, albeit the troughs and energy flows are taking closer order

Over Tuesday and Weds the energy flows continue to put the ridge under pressure and the high cell migrates to the north east but still a couple of relatively warm days, particularly in the north, but with the usual caveat.

[knocker]

Over the next couple of days the troughs related to the energy flows merge resulting in low pressure to the south and south east of the UK. Which in turn results in more unsettled weather in the strengthening easterly wind. This evolution favours the north west of the country for a change

 

[knocker]

The ecm slowly has low pressure gaining traction over the UK as it pushes north from Europe, greatly facilitated by the movement of the trough to the west.

[Mike Poole]

8 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

Very brilliantly fantastically amazing analysis as always . Are you saying you think this summer could be a backloaded one then? With our June being rather like our May of last year (warm spells with unsettled) and then July and August being hot?

No not really, I still think June and July will be better than August, it is just that we haven't had the very warm and settled second half of Spring that we had last year.

[Frosty.]

A chance of something plumey before summer?

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like those Greenland heights have like so many predicted beforehand have dissipated with core heights whilst still producing a split jet will remain to our north/north east. So probably becoming more unsettled later next week, but with temperatures after recovering from the cool levels this week will probably remain near normal. Not feeling too bad in light winds.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Howdy all! 

Just something worth pointing out - while not everyone is doing it, there has been a lot of GIFs and Memes used lately - particularly on page 27/28. Though I appreciate people are trying to add fun and humour to the thread, we would kindly ask if some of you would tone down your use of these funny animations and pictures, as it can distract from the main purpose of this thread.

I know I must sound like a fun-stomper. But it’s just they’re kinda being overused now to be honest, and we may start removing some of them.

Cheers guys!

Edited May 11, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Frosty.]

A major buckling of the jetstream is about to take place, indeed it's already happening between today and tomorrow as high pressure takes centre stage and becomes a blocking feature next week!

Edited May 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

As is often the case (I think?) the 00Z gives slightly greater emphasis to the PV remnants, creating the illusion of a potential 'backtrack?

 

The FV3, of course (it being such a great model, over all) goes the whole nine-yards:

And the 00Z ensembles are also characteristically not as good as later runs (hope springs eternal!):

  

[SunnyDazee]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

No not really, I still think June and July will be better than August, it is just that we haven't had the very warm and settled second half of Spring that we had last year.

Thanks for clearing that up. Still waiting for a good August lol

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Howdy all! I know I must sound like a fun-stomper. But it’s just they’re kinda being overused now to be honest, and we may start removing some of them.

Cheers guys!

Great post DRL, I just cant work out what's wrong with folk keep putting silly pictures with everything... Get a grip....

Anyway the 6z brings some nice settled conditions this week, and I'm noticing things starting to look a little better out towards day 10, could we end up pulling In more of a SEtly, or am I barking up the wrong tree.. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye Matt, hate GIF's, cannot see point in them

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye Matt, hate GIF's, cannot see point in them

To a point I agree I don't mind using them sparingly with the right post, but not all the time... I don't think the really knowledgeable posters need them, but the half wits like me need to add a few just to make there post look a little more appealing....

[Methuselah]

A very good end to a very good run:

 

Don't look a GIFfed horse in the mouth:  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean there's some gorgeous weather to come in the days ahead under high pressure, plenty of sunshine and light winds pushing temperatures up to the high teens to possibly low twenties celsius...then longer term there are hints that we could tap into warming continental conditions!

[Frosty.]

I'm not going to try and sugar coat the longer term GEFS 6z because I'm so balanced / unbiased....  But seriously, there's a lot of crud..or worse...  BUT it's not all bad!

[Methuselah]

And the FV3 continues to play 'silly buggers' with the cold blobs; but, looking on the bright side, it does finish with some rather tasty uppers, not too far away from the SE:

  

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 it does finish with some rather tasty uppers, not too far away from the SE:

  

While the uk is entrenched in green snot, but it's comforting to know Italy is melting in the heat!

Edited May 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

The May GloSea5 output has been published today, so here are a few charts for the June-August period.

Bottom line first, here are the tertile probability charts for 2m temperature and precipitation:

Strong signal for above average temperatures, and no real signal for precipitation.  I think this is consistent with a largely settled summer, punctuated with thundery breakdowns.  

To the extremes then with the outer quintiles plots for 2m temperature and 500mb heights:

The hottest category is much more likely than climatology and is an increased signal over last months output.  The heights plot shows less than 5% chance of the lowest category, should be the last nail in the coffin for those who are predicting a 2007/2012 redux!

Edited May 11, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

06Z ensembles show their usual daytime improvements: so-so!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Cheers once again Mike for that latest insight... Just looking at the CFS going into the final 3rd of the month, and its showing has largely settled and warmer conditions taking hold! Just one run I know, but its kind of fitting In with some of the longer term predictions I'm currently reading about.. And yes Mike I certainly can't see a repeat of a 2012...

[Frosty.]

Hello Summer..from the CFS!!

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Hello Summer..from the CFS!!

Got to laugh at that, Karl, well spotted.  +20 T850s over most of the south of England would be something special but in early June?  Just illustrates what is on the table because there is a smorgasbord of potential for the summer, just a little patience required.  ICON rolling...

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

The May GloSea5 output has been published today, so here are a few charts for the June-August period.

Bottom line first, here are the tertile probability charts for 2m temperature and precipitation:

Strong signal for above average temperatures, and no real signal for precipitation.  I think this is consistent with a largely settled summer, punctuated with thundery breakdowns.  

To the extremes then with the outer quintiles plots for 2m temperature and 500mb heights:

The hottest category is much more likely than climatology and is an increased signal over last months output.  The heights plot shows less than 5% chance of the lowest category, should be the last nail in the coffin for those who are predicting a 2007/2012 redux!

Didn’t the same say go for a colder winter with extensive HLB. Well see how that went, again it’s a snapshot in time and background signals will change, as far as I’m concerned means nothing unsure why such gravitas is given, to how summer will evolve, a warmer than average summer, is always much more likely than cooler.

You persist about warm weather endlessly, I’m still waiting for it! It says a lot when my best warm spell was in February in winter, it’s now last month of spring, I sense you think there is going to be a summer 2018 redux you may be sorely disappointed in that case, which is more unordinary than a cool/wet one.

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Didn’t the same say go for a colder winter with extensive HLB. Well see how that went, again it’s a snapshot in time and background signals will change, as far as I’m concerned means nothing unsure why such gravitas is given, to how summer will evolve, a warmer than average summer, is always much more likely than cooler.

You persist about warm weather endlessly, I’m still waiting for it! It says a lot when my best warm spell was in February in winter, it’s now last month of spring, I sense you think there is going to be a summer 2018 redux you may be sorely disappointed in that case, which is more unordinary than a cool/wet one.

Not true as you can see looking at the charts available the back end of 2018

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob