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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

There is some semblance of continuity in the EPS evolution of the past three day if one uses a little poetic license The general evolution that has hardened up this evening is for the subtropical high ridging north over the UK to come under pressure from the NW and the NE from the energy flows which eventually results in two main developments. One; the migration  of positive anomalies north west and a ridge into eastern Greenland and two; a trough in the Bay of Biscay area and negative anomalies over western Europe  All of which results in a pretty inert central and eastern Atlantic with probably a light easterly drift over the UK with temps varying around the average And not a lot of rain around.

10-15.thumb.png.ae9dcf6ea6a013dff88e1207270a2fb9.png7-12.thumb.png.3f5913394c13d2c2693abfe068203b79.png4-9.thumb.png.15b2384c1c4e818aeea1d1402f297aef.png

NOAA is in the same ball park. but just to reiterate the obvious that the detail awaits sorting by the det output

814day_03.thumb.gif.54a4ea76d03325e81f17ffb7937315a4.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure why we are hypothesising about Summer and saying it could be miserable based off some northern blocking from early May.

I suspect it's descending into trolling now. How can anyone know that summer will be miserable when we can't be sure of what is happening after T120? People in this forum should know better. What you want to see may not be what will occur, I think last winter taught a lot people that.

May 2013 was miserable and look at how that summer turned out. Northern blocking can also lead to heat with the Atlantic air cut off.... and northern blocking isn't even that unusual during May. Easterlies can be just as common as westerlies.

You're right.

The weather in May doesn't dictate the summer pattern- however in some years it can dictate the early summer pattern as it did last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure why we are hypothesising about Summer and saying it could be miserable based off some northern blocking from early May.

I suspect it's descending into trolling now. How can anyone know that summer will be miserable when we can't be sure of what is happening after T120? People in this forum should know better. What you want to see may not be what will occur, I think last winter taught a lot people that.

May 2013 was miserable and look at how that summer turned out. Northern blocking can also lead to heat with the Atlantic air cut off.... and northern blocking isn't even that unusual during May. Easterlies can be just as common as westerlies.

I'm sure I read a post, just the other day, suggesting positive signs, for next winter? Then again, I might have been in the Twilight Zone!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

There has been alot of doom and gloom in here today regarding a dire May and possibly summer to come, was beginning to feel a little depressed over it... But hey ho every cloud and all that!!! So I will finish off this evening with a snap shot of mid June, but don't forget, this is a projection... Mattwolves will not be responsible for any failures of this forecast, all rights are strictly prohibited etc, etc.

cfs-0-942.png

cfs-2-942.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

There has been alot of doom and gloom in here today regarding a dire May and possibly summer to come, was beginning to feel a little depressed over it... But hey ho every cloud and all that!!! So I will finish off this evening with a snap shot of mid June, but don't forget, this is a projection... Mattwolves will not be responsible for any failures of this forecast, all rights are strictly prohibited etc, etc.

cfs-0-942.png

cfs-2-942.png

Predicting June is well above my pay grade but I can confidently predict a large blocking anticyclone next week!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You're right.

The weather in May doesn't dictate the summer pattern- however in some years it can dictate the early summer pattern as it did last year.

If it was November I would be raising eyebrows but the atmospheric circulation patterns in May are much less clearly defined...

Looking at the latest anomaly charts you can see we still have this dreaded cold blob in the North Atlantic in spite of northern blocking.

image.thumb.png.e7d378896bd3cf3b4bca8b3f9877b350.png

There is a signal for warmer then average temperatures over central Europe with that anomaly pattern and perhaps indications of a more westerly flow (e.g. 2015) but other years with a similar pattern have produced very different summers.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Spring once again serving synoptics that deviate from the general norm (i.e. atlantic in quiet mode, slow moving patterns, with airstreams more prone to attack from the north and east) - alas have to say it, but for cold and snow lovers, the synoptics of the last month or so and as shown for the near future - would be a dream at any stage from late Nov to late March).. Anyhow its not, its May and quite normal really in this respect.

Models are showing the ridge set to build in over the weekend quickly migrating north as we move through next week, becoming a very strong northern block and allowing cool air from the east to invade - the source coming from NE Russia/Scandi rather than central europe. Western parts will fayre best, with respectable temps and sunshine and dry weather, east coast as often happens in late spring will suffer the most, with low cloud and the classic sea fret/haar combo with low temps and possible drizzle, southern and central parts could quickly become plagued with cloud and poor temps.

I was feeling quite positive yesterday for longer term prospects through mid-May, much less so today..

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

The 18z GFS has a -NAO that intense that it's keeping the jet so far S that LP barely affects the N at all. That's one big Greeny HP

image.thumb.png.bc6f6d7bddb14d9a03899d68050fe8c4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

So to continue with the role of the two troughs and by Thursday the ridge has been disrupted and the surface high cell forced north. Thus a more easterly component to the wind, albeit very light, so perhaps not a massive impact on eastern coastal regions with temps generally still a little above average.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8008000.thumb.png.8b7794a212b51b276495578718f93abe.pngindex.thumb.png.aabac9e3432f11c916c06360033f33cc.png1827572260_maxthu.thumb.png.32c657e99977c0f627dc783e767f7512.png

But by Friday the troughs have taken closer order and a low has arrived off the coast of Cornwall with some rain and strengthening winds effecting the country. This is of course according to the gfs and subject to adjustment

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8094400.thumb.png.2c084f1a917b4e2139229ab05150ce61.png1846656459_rainfr.thumb.png.02b96e10a648274a941472828170d811.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

One things that's apparentish, from the 00Z, is that the PV remnant seems to be becoming increasingly diluted. Not that that necessarily makes the pattern any less of a mess::unknw:

image.thumb.png.f421ea4f77750c66bb6a41a3cfe146b1.png image.thumb.png.bf81c4f8d0c17108e417f96305148eab.png

The FV3 however, is not looking quite so spiffing. Rubbish model!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.df833e19aae32ab61509dd56965b3d50.pngimage.thumb.png.4c0b2ce661e22468438afb00e3b9720d.png 

The GEFS ensembles are (apart from their being rather meh, that is) not bad at all:

image.thumb.png.747d88d25232969f471d833944b5d923.pngimage.thumb.png.c5fafec34d38b9725f1551f5af9840cb.png 

Roll on the final appearance of a clear summer pattern?:oldgood:


 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hardly earth-shatteringly brilliant, but at least the threat of -5C 850hPa uppers is on the wane...:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.bb5af8aaa234b14a2a6613f9addb6454.pngimage.thumb.png.dfa48390fea7c0ffe2ce71f8765e087f.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But this would be a belter of a plume-thundery breakdown scenario: it would even rival all those 'superblizzards' that never materialise, through the winter months!:shok:

image.thumb.png.e40c7d01ca9c8368ac51996ad618309a.pngimage.thumb.png.22d992e14e5a40f038cdb1de36a0e41e.png 

image.thumb.png.003d1932c79d26b44f521bfe7d31f9cc.png:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

In the past 48 hours, the clusters have become pretty consistent:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051000_192.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051000_300.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051000_360.

So by D7, high pressure slipping north and a fairly strong Euro trough. More of a threat of rain for the south than the north, better weather west rather than east. North-western areas could continue to do fairly well.

Between D11 and D15, heights continue to look best to the north, ridging is generally still absent from Europe, and if a trough develops in the Atlantic it'll probably stay a long way west. This means we'll probably continue to look east for our weather.

With rigding likely to continue to be too far north to put the UK under a block, and euro troughing likely to prevent a concerted push of heat from southern areas, there is no realistic prospect of a heatwave in the next 15 days.

Much will depend on the behaviour of the euro trough and whether further troughing can push south from arctic regions. If the latter happens once more, then the May CET will probably end up substantially below average. On the other hand, if euro troughing can become fairly shallow and stay south of us, it will be decent enough for most away from the east coast, and above average conditions for western areas may continue. 

A best early guess for the period 17th-25th May, then: In the west, could be for mostly fine with many sunny days, in the east cold/dreary, with occasional inclement spells in the far south which even more occasionally might push north for a time. A good time to holiday in Wales, Lancashire, Cumbria, Northern Ireland or west of the Highlands!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Rather like Katie Price in search of a bag of cement, the 06Z FV3 isn't exactly a thing-of-beauty::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.a98d7b61207fcb939f91405000355b30.pngimage.thumb.png.2da4a3aab3d914c3c5538acb3209891f.png 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I've seen the future and it's bright, not orange, but certainly yellow... Perhaps finally we start to warm things up later this month! 

gfs-1-324.png

gfs-0-324 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GEFS ensembles speaks volumes: War & Peace in plebeian Latin, read by Jacob Rees-Mogg? :shok:

image.thumb.png.2b429c6399ad1f494be7dbf357a7ac2a.pngimage.thumb.png.2641af97bef78639da38e2e5de4e9998.png  

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire

JMA and 500 hPa forecasts looking much better after yesterday’s stinkers. Average to below average precipitation and warmer than average temperatures. Deep breath needed I think after seeing this as it restores a bit of hope from my own perspective. Signs that the weather may not all be that bad going into early June then

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Only just had a peek at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, not checked any other models yet but if that's anything to go by the Atlantic is dead in the water as far as the uk is concerned, it looks very blocked indeed!!

The next week looks nice I think. All change come next Friday on these said models but fingers crossed HP can hold on for a while as I don’t want my winter coat out in the Summer it’ll get worn out and I’m skint

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

In a nutshell the GEFS 6z mean looks blocked throughout with heights to the north, a very slack / flabby looking pattern with nothing as such from the Atlantic sector.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Already a better run than the 6z, With High Pressure more West over the UK by the start of the week bringing slightly warmer uppers. 

396495199_viewimage-2019-05-10T165956_035.thumb.png.fa27a948141ba7ae17bbad79fd6e28c2.png1205651556_viewimage-2019-05-10T170014_593.thumb.png.943ae683549eead3a449fd13176dbb26.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12h shows high pressure firmly in control for most of next week with plenty of fine, sunny and pleasantly warm weather on the menu.

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

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