Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Methuselah]

Chop-chop chaps...It's time to break-out the sledges!

 

Sea-ice beware!                                                                                

Edited May 9, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Chop-chop chaps...It's time to break-out the sledges!

 

Sea-ice beware!                                                                                

Have no fear, the FV3 is not having any of it!..great model

[MATTWOLVES 3]

An absolute shocker from the 12z,i really hope things improve tomorrow, its persistent with heights over Greenland and cool unsettled conditions over the UK, only saving grace is the timeframe... 

[Man With Beard]

Tonight's UKMO looks reasonably warm for the start of next week - low 20s I'd guess - and also by T144 we're seeing less of a push of heights to Greenland, meaning that colder pulse from the arctic circle will have a much harder time working towards the UK in the days after. 

Not that far from heights getting stuck in the north sea - if the circulation stays closed and near to the UK, well, you never know, we might be looking considerably upwards rather than downwards in temperatures before long. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Man With Beard

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12h morphs into something much nicer after a cool unsettled start..enjoy the fine and warmer weather, at least for most of next week!

[Methuselah]

A nice long-fetch easterly (along with some thundery rain/showers?) -- just what the doctor ordered!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A nice long-fetch easterly (along with some thundery rain/showers?) -- just what the doctor ordered!

 

Hell no Pete, I think we have seen enough rain this last few days to last the summer out... Thundery showers usually mean one thing in the U.k.... A breakdown, followed by 2 or 3 weeks of dross again, I think I will pass on that one..

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hell no Pete, I think we have seen enough rain this last few days to last the summer out... Thundery showers usually mean one thing in the U.k.... A breakdown, followed by 2 or 3 weeks of dross again, I think I will pass on that one..

And just look how this splendid model finishes up! Keeps the Arctic away...

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes Pete I've noticed how the GFS seems to have a low pressure to our SW constantly, and it doesn't appear to move at all.... I think this model is most definitely barking up the wrong tree! 

[Methuselah]

A cracking set of 12Z ensembles too!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Positive start from the ECM.. what could possibly go wrong..

4 days in and still looking good... 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Sofa so good!

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Sofa so good!

That's the thing about British weather: the more one couches it in humour, the better it sounds!

[Mike Poole]

I've not posted for a few days because I don't think there's much to be gained by analysing every run just at the moment, the picture re next week has been clear for a while - settled, sunny for some but not particularly warm.  Thereafter somewhat uncertain and it will need a few more days of model runs to properly resolve that. 

But it's a good time for a look at the CFS for the next two months, as always it needs to viewed probabilistically over a number of runs.  Here's the averaged Z500 anomaly for June for the last 8 runs:

The clear signal is for higher than average heights close to the UK, but as per my last post re CFS the position varies significantly, so that would imply to me settled spells, of varying heat, and some thundery breakdowns thrown in.  

Let's have a look at July:

Similar picture but perhaps with increased confidence of higher heights closer to the UK.   

Nowhere on analysis of this model, or indeed any other, suggests anything like 2007 or 2012, as some have suggested.  There could be some significant rainfall, that's not ruled out, but it won't be a result of a cement mixer low camped over the UK for days on end, it will be from thundery downpours in my view.

Finally, the May GloSea5 output is due in the next few days, will be interesting for sure, recall that March update had high probability of hottest outer quintile (50% ish) whereas April was more balanced (25% ish from memory) although the UKMO contingency planners forecast didn't really follow their own model with 45-50% of temperatures in the highest 20% from climatology.  Will comment on it when it is published!

Edited May 9, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thanks Mike, and cheers for your current thoughts on proceedings... Appreciated.

[Frosty.]

The uppers start warming through early to mid next week but it's not all about the darn uppers, you can have pleasant surface conditions at this time of year with -5 uppers!!

Edited May 9, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The GEFs 7-12 anomaly could be a lot worse/ Quite dry and I would imagine relative sunny and in the very slack gradient feeling quite warm with the temp around average, perhaps a tad above.

[mb018538]

Well the ecm quickly goes downhill next week - northern blocking strong again by Friday, with yet another cool air low pressure driven easterly to contend with. I’ve had enough of this cool weather now, someone needs to bazooka the North Pole and shake things up again!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the ecm quickly goes downhill next week - northern blocking strong again by Friday, with yet another cool air low pressure driven easterly to contend with. I’ve had enough of this cool weather now, someone needs to bazooka the North Pole and shake things up again!

Look on the bright side, it's only May.... And the Northern blocking will be all but gone come December!

[knocker]

According to the ecm by midday Tuesday the major trough in mid Atlantic has put the ridge under some pressure and the surface high has slipped into the North Sea. A marked N/S temp gradient over the UK. A similar scenario on Weds with the high cell to the north east and temps way above average over Scotland and below in most of England and Wales. But by Thursday the energy flows have tightened the pincer movement resulting in an increased easterly flow which iunfortunately, as usual, has a very detrimental impact on eastern regions.

[SizzlingHeat]

ECM. Yum, yuk and yuk. Apart from 3 or so days of sun and chilly temps, the outlook is total sh!!e 

Northern blocking and a pattern that would never show in winter, but then shows relentlessly approaching summer.

Absolutely disgusting. I'm out. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by SizzlingHeat

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Apart from 3 or so days of sun and chilly temps

Chilly temps?..it warms up early to midweek under high pressure in the very strong May sunshine, could be upper teens celsius and maybe creep into the low 20's c for favoured sheltered spots!!

Edited May 9, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think you need to read the team Jo post mate... That's a bit extreme, to say your out in spring!! You have just viewed a 10 day ECM chart, not the holy book of nostradamus weather predictions. 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

ECM. Yum, yuk and yuk. Apart from 3 or so days of sun and chilly temps, the outlook is total sh!!e 

Northern blocking and a pattern that would never show in winter, but then shows relentlessly approaching summer.

Absolutely disgusting. I'm out. 

Yum, Yuk and Yuk? Aren't they Kim Jong Uhn's Security Detail? Sorry, wrong Northern Bloc!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

ECM. Yum, yuk and yuk. Apart from 3 or so days of sun and chilly temps, the outlook is total sh!!e 

Northern blocking and a pattern that would never show in winter, but then shows relentlessly approaching summer.

Absolutely disgusting. I'm out. 

Aye not great post Wednesday for members like us south, looks like cooler temps and sea fret here, Mon to Wed look the best spring like days, then EC suggests equivalent of average January W'lys