Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[knocker]

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters still very supportive of a fine - and may I suggest eventually warm - spell next week

However - the trough to the east has deepened when compared with previous ensembles, slightly negative anomalies in the ascendancy over Europe - and I wonder if an north/north-easterly component may filter into the situation by the weekend. 

Ridging then set to fade into the week commencing 20th May - not clear-cut but the trough anomalies seem to have moved in from the east with ridging fading into the west - so guessing not a particularly warm easterly source, and perhaps not dry either. 

And by D15 it's slightly messy but height anomalies always strongest to the NW, and a tendency to recover to at least normal values across Europe - but unclear whether heights between Europe and Greenland can link up again. 

Trying to summarise then: The general trend IMO is a continuation of the recent trend: Spells of Atlantic ridging northwards through Europe giving the UK some fine days with warmth depending on where heights emerge - and then ridging splitting up to more northern latitudes allowing less settled weather in for a time, either from the east or west. This cycle could happen a couple of times in the coming 20 day period.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean looks spiffing from sunday and throughout next week under intensifying anticyclonic and warmer weather..further ahead doesn't look bad either!

[Methuselah]

Though the 06Z FV3 is starting to indicate some iffiness at T+228...not so spiffy iffy?

 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Though the 06Z FV3 is starting to indicate some iffiness at T+228...not so spiffy iffy?

 

Or stinking rather than stonking..... but it is only the lamentable FV3 so no worries!

[Methuselah]

I quite like the way the FV3 finishes, as the 0C 850hPa isotherm ends up closer to Iceland than to the UK:

  

[Frosty.]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

I quite like the way the FV3 finishes, as the 0C 850hPa isotherm ends up closer to Iceland than to the UK:

  

I will retract my lamentable comment, it's a truly great model!!!

[Methuselah]

But, is are the 06Z ensembles to our collective liking? Maybe yes, maybe no!

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, is are the 06Z ensembles to our collective liking? Maybe yes, maybe no!

 

Well next week certainly YES... that's all that matters for now..high pressure next week 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[Geordiesnow]

I think the main trend to look at for next week is one of high pressure domination and any details regarding orientation therefore just how warm it will get and where the warmest spots will be is still up in the air.

 

[SunnyDazee]

I think the hottest weather next week will be in the West. I’m hoping but not overly confident that this spell will last for more than a week, as when we start to get into next Thursday and Friday there starts to be some model confusions again. For now though, let’s get this torrid December, oops I mean May, weather out the way and enjoy the warmer weather for at least 4 or 5 days

[knocker]

Just in passing and in reference to a couple of posts yesterday vis estimating the surface temp given the 850mb temp

Quite a few hefty rain showers down here at the moment and the midday ascent is nor surprisingly unstable. But initially from the surface the temperature cools down along the DALR line (dry adiabatic lapse rate) but the air quickly becomes saturated (or lust about) and continues along the SALR (the saturated adiabatic lapse rate). The 850mb temp is +2.2C and the surface +12.5C. and thus a diffidence of 10.3C  The 850mb height is quite low at 1254m so still a relatively high average lapse rate of 8.2C/Km

A not very good example of the complications that do arise but you get the drift.

[Mapantz]

3 hours ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

looks like a brief dryer spell next week.

Unbounded technical input! Adding some charts/thoughts as to why you use the term brief would be the icing on the cake?!

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Unbounded technical input! Adding some charts/thoughts as to why you use the term brief would be the icing on the cake?!

Indeed, it was really technical, for a start you can't have a dryer spell..you can have a drier spell but you can't have a brief dryer spell but you can have a brief drier interlude but you can have a hair dryer..hope that was technical enough.

[SunnyDazee]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

We'll all be okay: the dryer's a Hotpoint!

Could still leave me a bit wet and unsettled though if it’s only a brief hotpoint! 

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please stop all the point scoring posts, As folk log in here to read/learn informative Model discussions. Nothing wrong with a little banter within posts, But this thread is slowly being turned into a banter/jiffy thread by a few and that is certainly not what its intended for.

Thanks all, Please continue.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not bad out to nearly day 6 from icon, and when I look outside my window right now at a monsoon, this is Truelly a major upgrade..

[knocker]

The 1500 UTC chart showing the expected variation in temp. Plenty of rain and Cbs in central southern areas

 

[Frosty.]

You wait all winter for a scandi high  /  easterly and of course you don't get a sniff but then you get to April and now May and they are unstoppable!!..  our climate has a sick / evil sense of humour doesn't it!

Edited May 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

You wait all winter for a scandi high  /  easterly and of course you don't get a sniff but then you get to April and now May and they are unstoppable!!..  our climate has a sick sense of humour doesn't it!

Pretty much a perfect set up though Karl, if you want a nice kind of dry heat, I will take a blocking high setting up over scandy all day long, so we end up sending Atlantic systems to our North or to our south... Long may it continue I say

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Pretty much a perfect set up though Karl, if you want a nice kind of dry heat, I will take a blocking high setting up over scandy all day long, so we end up sending Atlantic systems to our North or to our south... Long may it continue I say

Once the continent heats up properly..bring it on!!

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Once the continent heats up properly..bring it on!!

Correctomundo! And Tuesday's GFS is a beaut!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

May written all over it this, my location could even struggle with sea fret

[Frosty.]

Once northern Europe hots up to around 29c, this will be a good chart..until then, pass me the sick bucket!

On a brighter note, there is some cracking weather on the way, at least for a time next week, if you're having a few days off work, there's lots of warm sunshine to look forward to during the first half of next week according to the Gfs 12z operational ...at least the North sea is becoming a bit less cold now..

Edited May 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Deleted

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by knocker