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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Here comes the improving picture from icon.... I'll take that and raise you a GFS and ECM,,,, over to you chaps... 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

That depends how you look at it NWS. it states very low confidence, yes it states periods of unsettled conditions, but it also states very warm spells in the settled conditions. And not to forget at this range, perhaps we should take it with a huge dose of salt, especially after the failed winter attempts!! 

Mmmm? Very warm with rain in the South? Sounds rather spiffing, to me. Especially given the fact that we only had ONE measly thunder-day last year...What's more, EA has a notable groundwater deficit...:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I say! Monday looks top hole!image.thumb.png.3757ec7261a85d93f4d43fce849802e3.pngimage.thumb.png.ee1c2b9a8002825e272614bd05e185c2.png

Descending air and unbroken sunshine. Might see 20C even under 0C 850s? Just don't blame me when it snows!:shok:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I think it's looking pretty rosey folks, plenty of settled Conditions, temps nudging or exceeding 20c..and by day 8, perhaps a reload from the SW... looks pretty high pressure orientated at this stage... So far so good.. No excitement from me tonight though.. Gerrin a bit to old for it... 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, if the 12Z is anything to go bay, once this week is done with, we'll quite likely have a good two-weeks' dry and warm weather...So, another month-of-two-halves might happen!

image.thumb.png.6d5f7e108bf55367f13d931de697fcea.pngimage.thumb.png.e8fbc282f52f61ae26da348c5fb4c23a.png 

The 06Z ensembles do have a wee wobble though - the op shows string of sub-10C maxes, but very little rain!:shok: Stick with the control run?

image.thumb.png.7269bd9bf086a6a5097b862535aeab01.pngimage.thumb.png.8d474da670c5e8cfca739b5a92247641.png  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 12z FV3 looks warm and settled next week under high pressure / strong ridging...and what a finish!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the FV3 ends with a good'n:

image.thumb.png.0b7f9c219906854abe15a227306cbf9e.pngimage.thumb.png.43c087fdb047a6092b61037995cfaa93.png :oldgrin:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean..  STONKER ALERT!!!..  From Sunday and most of next week looks beautiful under high pressure and beyond that there are signs we will pick up a warm and increasingly humid continental flow with sunshine and an increasing chance of heavy showers / thunderstorms breaking out and also being imported from france!!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

An early update on the Ecm 12z..so far so good with high pressure building northwards during the weekend and intensifying over the uk..the cooler uppers being mixed out and warming through by early next week.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's looking peachy ECM, I'm liking today's output so far today... 

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

An early update on the Ecm 12z..so far so good with high pressure building northwards during the weekend and intensifying over the uk..the cooler uppers being mixed out and warming through by early next week.

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About time too Frosty, after a miserable 7 months

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

T+192..peachy..T+216..peachy!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

T+240..errr..peachy for most!!..much better longer term than the 00z with the warmth holding on for the majority!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Excellent ECM...

PLENTY of May warmth to enjoy for many ..

HP dominating day 5 onwards, im still a tad concerned about the destination of troughing later on but looking forward to the sunshine .

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Dodgy start, much better in the middle and a perfect ending!! Perhaps even anyweather maybe on board later... Here's hoping

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm nominating Frosty for the ECM...for his unswerving services to hype. I mean meteorology!:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

ECM looks good at face value, but 850s are a bit rubbish until at least Tuesday when they finally get into positive territory so I feel that Sunday to Tuesday temps would be in the mid teens, possibly up to high teens to 21-22c towards midweek but then the warmest conditions being in the north west with south and east being back to mid perhaps upper teens. 

What I don't like is the high is shown to build northwest again for the second run in a row, bring lower heights towards the south. Would rather pressure showing lower across Greenland at day 10. Could lead to a more unsettled spell post day 10. Let's see what Ens show this evening.

Edited by SizzlingHeat
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

ECM looks good at face value, but 850s are a bit rubbish until at least Tuesday when they finally get into positive territory so I feel that Sunday to Tuesday temps would be in the mid teens, possibly up to high teens to 21-22c towards midweek but then the warmest conditions being in the north west with south and east being back to mid perhaps upper teens. 

What I don't like is the high is shown to build northwest again for the second run in a row, bring lower heights towards the south. Would rather pressure showing lower across Greenland at day 10. Could lead to a more unsettled spell post day 10. Let's see what Ens show this evening.

BBC RAW has 17-20 degrees from sunday onwards in manchester. with very light winds, should be lovely..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

ECM looks good at face value, but 850s are a bit rubbish until at least Tuesday when they finally get into positive territory so I feel that Sunday to Tuesday temps would be in the mid teens, possibly up to high teens to 21-22c towards midweek but then the warmest conditions being in the north west with south and east being back to mid perhaps upper teens. 

What I don't like is the high is shown to build northwest again for the second run in a row, bring lower heights towards the south. Would rather pressure showing lower across Greenland at day 10. Could lead to a more unsettled spell post day 10. Let's see what Ens show this evening.

If you didn't like the operational you won't like how the mean ends up but to me it looks like a very pleasant late spring spell from sunday onwards.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

A look at the ens show the operational to be on the warmer side of things with a slight decline to cooler conditions later, either way this ain't to bad... Baring in mind with long sunny spell, temps will respond nicely given the time of year.... 

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Mattwolves said:

A look at the ens show the operational to be on the warmer side of things with a slight decline to cooler conditions later, either way this ain't to bad... Baring in mind with long sunny spell, temps will respond nicely given the time of year.... 

graphe_ens3.png

Yes an important point- sun in mid late May is strong, longest day is in June i think.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If you didn't like the operational you won't like how the mean ends up but to me it looks like a very pleasant late spring spell from sunday onwards.

We've been so spoiled so far this year, it's incredible...Back 'when arrhh were a lud', the occasional 20C day, in May, was something of a bonus. These days, we've almost come to expect it!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If you didn't like the operational you won't like how the mean ends up but to me it looks like a very pleasant late spring spell from sunday onwards.

 

It will be nice to see the sun again, however it's concerning to show northern blocking trying to re-establish itself again later on. Would much prefer it if low pressure would replace the HLB as that could become very dodgy later on towards the end of May.

But 15-20c nationwide for 3 or 4 days would be pleasant enough for the time being.

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