Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Frosty.]

Massive heat upgrade compared to last evening's Ecm 12z which had the uk in -3 uppers at day's 9 and 10!!comparing like for like!!

Edited May 6, 2019 by Frosty.

[Earthshine]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Imagine what it'll be like (in here) should the incoming plume verify!

Chaos!  Personally, plumey weather is my favourite.  That hot, humid air takes me back to holidays to the Caribbean when I was younger.

[Frosty.]

23 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Ok Mr or Mrs Ecm..where are you hiding that heatwave you were showing a few days ago????!!!!!!!

What a difference a day makes..24 little hours

Edited May 6, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The ecm appears to be heading in the direction suggested by the earlier EPs mean anomaly. Await this evening

[Mike Poole]

38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Imagine what it'll be like (in here) should the incoming plume verify!

I expect it would be dead Pete, people out in the sunshine, posting in the regionals, maybe, in the storms thread if it goes that way.   But model thread, quiet I think.  This is the peak for this thread - the anticipation - which reminds me of something I once said in another context, but has relevance here, 'the anticipation is so much better than the not getting it'! 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

Well I'm obviously posting in the wrong thread then!!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I expect it would be dead Pete, people out in the sunshine, posting in the regionals, maybe, in the storms thread if it goes that way.   But model thread, quiet I think.  This is the peak for this thread - the anticipation - which I once said in another context, 'the anticipation is so much better than the not getting it'!

It's like I always say, get the cold in first and the heatwave will follow!!!!.. Ecm must have read my comments last night because now it's found the heatwave it misplaced yesterday!!!!!!

[Methuselah]

Heavy snow and record-breaking lows, next week. Don't pay so much attention to the models!

[Frosty.]

Mean looks good if you like high pressure

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean rock solid on the high, and moreover the location of the high, at T144:

And at T240:

I like this. Azores extension to UK, as a mean chart suggests to me a reloading anticyclonic pattern.  We will see.  

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening ! Still sticking by my guns with echos of 2012 summer. The ops models showing some warmth later in the 10 day range but that is only one run, Even summer 2012 had warm dry spells..tomorows ops will be quite different.....

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Well I'm obviously posting in the wrong thread then!!

Hi Knocker, you’re always welcome to post in here! Try not let anyone get under your skin (or whatever it is that is causing problems). Best to ignore any posts you may not be happy with, including ignoring/reporting any members that are being a nuisance, or you can always chat to us!  

Some people maybe getting a little bit over excited by some of the charts this evening - which, in a way, is understandable as I guess some of us are eager for some hotter weather. Some of the charts are likely being over-hyped too. There’s no total guarantee that some of those charts, especially the ECMWF ones, will come off like that. Charts a week(ish) away can always be liable to changes. I suppose though, the general pattern seems to be establishing to see some build of pressure next week. 

While I don’t want to force you to use this thread, your posts are appreciated by a lot of people (your morning summaries, for example, are really handy) and you provide balance and level-headedness with your content. (That’s not to say everyone else on here are biased with their posts, but you definitely one of the members that provides value to the Model thread  )

Edited May 6, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[knocker]

The ext EPS mean anomaly has been reasonable consistent over the last couple of days and basically has just moved the weak atlantic trough a tad east as the amplification declines. This would not portend anything nasty creeping out of the woodwork and probably a period of dry and quite warm weather with temps a little above average. With the pattern indicated this evening Scotland does quite well in the temp stakes. Always a possibility of systems pushing in from the west.

This evening's NOAA in the same ball park

Edited May 6, 2019 by knocker

[Mike Poole]

Looking forward to summer itself, here's a look at June courtesy of CFS - as always CFS has to viewed probabilistically across a number of runs, rather than cherry picking one run. Last 7 runs:

Similar to last time I posted these, higher than average pressure looks very likely, but where it sits is quite uncertain, so while I'm confident on a warm or hot summer, I think the big question mark is over the extent to which thundery breakdowns will feature as part of the overall summer picture.  I think more so than last year, but that is not saying much.

Edited May 6, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

49 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

While I don’t want to force you to use this thread, your posts are appreciated by a lot of people (your morning summaries, for example, are really handy) and you provide balance and level-headedness with your content. (That’s not to say everyone else on here are biased with their posts, but you definitely one of the members that provides value to the Model thread  )

Absolutely spot on DRL, I didnt realise there was a problem, but like you say folk get overly excited, I for one included, has regards to knocker he contributes greatly to this thread and he brings a little something extra to his forecasts that others don't bring... I read his posts first thing everyday, so hopefully he will continue to contribute, has its really appreciated by me me and I would say many others

[Mike Poole]

Great hour or three of model discussion, I will be back tomorrow for the 12z, but I've really enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts as spring turns to summer, the most vibrant discussion on this thread since winter, models trickle on though here's the ICON 18z at T120:

 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

Evening all, not posted in here for a while but still watching the charts! In the very short term, it's looking a pretty ugly week coming up - in the mid term, looking increasingly likely to have a spell of settled weather which at this time of year should mean warm weather but I'm still nervous about a reappearing Greenland ridge sucking up heights quickly in that direction. When the Greenland High gets established once... it so often comes back again and again at this time of year, doesn't it?! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Evening all, not posted in here for a while but still watching the charts! In the very short term, it's looking a pretty ugly week coming up - in the mid term, looking increasingly likely to have a spell of settled weather which at this time of year should mean warm weather but I'm still nervous about a reappearing Greenland ridge sucking up heights quickly in that direction. When the Greenland High gets established once... it so often comes back again and again at this time of year, doesn't it?! 

Yes.

Improvements today seem linked to a 'spoiler' low which moves across the top of the HP trying to ridge N through the UK...This can be seen here-

Essentially the models have worked out that there will be more energy in the N arm of the jet than they first thought (where have we heard that before??)

What we don't know at present is whether this will be a temporary hold up to heights establishing once more at a more N'ly latitude.

[knocker]

Outlook - Today marks the transition to more unsettled spell of weather which will last the rest of the week before amplification of the subtropical high heralds the start of a more settled and 'warmer' spell. Precisely how the detail of this pans out depends to a large extent on the orientation and intensity of the surface high cell

The NH 500mb  profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

Today will dawn cloudy in many areas with showery outbreaks in the area of the stationary occlusion and the trough to the south of it. These will pep up during the day, mainly over the north of England and Scotland, but later some may well bubble up over central England and Wales. The south and south west remaining dry and pretty sunny and thus quite a N/S temp contrast. But cloud and patchy rain from the waving occlusion, which is the forerunner of the deep low at 20W , will impact Cornwall by mid Afternoon.

During this evening and overnight the bands of rain, heavy at times, associated with this occlusion and the follow up associated with the aforementioned low wil track north east bringing some very wet weather to central southern England and Wales. Still some showers in the far north where there may even be a patchy frost.

By tomorrow the UK is totally under the umbrella of the complex area of low pressure so a wet and quite windy day in some areas, The bands of rain will continue to swing north but slowing down resulting in some reasonable totals in the north east of England  Sunny intervals in the south behind all of this but thundery showers will evolve during the afternoon in the potentially unstable air, A cold day for most of the country but warmer air has ingressed the far south

Over Wednesday night and through Thursday as the trough moves slowly NE the main center tracks across the UK into the North Sea and the trailing fronts and troughs embedded in the general circulation give another very unsettled day of heavy showers and longer periods of rain.

By Friday the main trough has cleared away to the east with the UK in a very slack gradient but there are still a few showers around courtesy of the odd trough and convergence zone  But the pattern change alluded to at the beginning is getting underway with the arrival of the upper trough in the western Atlantic

Saturday a day of sunshine and the odd shower with temps still a shade below average but the pattern change continues apace with the trough now dominating the western Atlantic and promoting the amplification of the subtropical high just to the west of the UK

Edited May 7, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

According to the gfs over Sun > Tues the ridge moves east over the UK with the centre of the high cell in the North Sea, So a few dry days with the temps creeping above average, particularly in the north

From here it starts to get tricky with a fair bit of energy running south of the trough south east of Greenland so best left for the time being

Edited May 7, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Next Wednesday, and things are still on-track:

  

And the back-end looks ready for an HP reload:

 

FV3 for next Wednesday:

 

And the very end also looks set for a continuation, as a new HP moves in:

Ensembles not bad for warmth, but not-so-good for rainfall:

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z operational is a cracker beyond this week with high pressure domination and even a chance of plumes..much more like summer before summer even starts..the GEFS 00z mean looks really good too!!

Edited May 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Although it could prove to be foolish to try and second guess what a model run is going to do next, the Ecm 0z from T+120 could turn into a beauty..I have a good feeling about this!!

Edited May 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

 I spock too soon!!..this is the  reason I don't usually comment on a run until it's completed!!!

 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The ecm also has a pleasant Monday > Weds with the high cell centred around the low countries before starting to weaken and migrate north as the energy flows from the NW and E start confusing the picture Temps rising from high teens to low 20s