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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

Still looks pretty chilly or as best average temperatures in middle and long range. I don't get why everybody is talking about high pressure building up over UK/South scandinavia since it only gives us northerly winds with 0 degrees in 850hpa.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Still looks pretty chilly or as best average temperatures in middle and long range. I don't get why everybody is talking about high pressure building up over UK/South scandinavia since it only gives us northerly winds with 0 degrees in 850hpa.

GFS shows the potential for much warmer conditions beyond mid month especially in Southern and Eastern areas with high pressure anchored to the East. This also ties in with some of the more senior forecasters thoughts... With this scenario much warmer conditions will become likely especially given the time of year... 

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

GFS shows the potential for much warmer conditions beyond mid month especially in Southern and Eastern areas with high pressure anchored to the East. This also ties in with some of the more senior forecasters thoughts... With this scenario much warmer conditions will become likely especially given the time of year... 

Much warmer as in 15-18 degrees celsius (average temperatures) or 20-25 like a mini heatwave? Can't see the last thing

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Much warmer as in 15-18 degrees celsius (average temperatures) or 20-25 like a mini heatwave? Can't see the last thing

That's quite bizzare! We have already had temps above 20c on a few occasions this year and it's still early May! If we get under the influence of high pressure going forward, temps will quickly climb above 20c in lengthy sunny spells, baring in mind the sun is now gaining strength daily.... You appear to be looking at things with a glass half empty philosophy! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It must be said though, that the FV3's take, on the 15th, is a tad worrying: just how long can that wretched feed of grot go on!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It must be said though, that the FV3's take, on the 15th, is a tad worrying: just how long can that wretched feed of grot go on

Tbh Pete, I think the reason some are panicking is due to firstly... How good its been so far this year, and secondly.... How great it was this time last year! We was never gonna repeat last year to a T. Each year has different ideas... We have plenty of time for warm conditions to take hold. Whatever which way you look at things and how some folk Interpratate things, it's still Spring... And it will be for another 3 and half weeks!! Hail summer..... Long live summer....

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The 06Z GEFS ensembles have appeared -- the op's a bit of a stinker TBH:

image.thumb.png.cf1b59ed43c7f0984434e23d3971d2d0.pngimage.thumb.png.579bc9f89b2ffaf99ce78d1b37b8530c.png                                                                                   image.thumb.png.d3acaefb62df46a190509efa0f57c121.png  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean looks a lot more settled from T+168 hours until T+300+ although there is some suggestion of shallow troughs bringing a risk of heavy showers later.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

One day we will get this setup during the winter,no sign of it warming up yet,and could be heavy snowfall in the highlands midweek.

 

Amazingly clean air,great for photography.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Although far from seasonal, we mustn't forget that northerlies aren't uncommon this side of the year. This type of pattern brings May 2005 to my mind - often northerly until midmonth, then a transition to warmer conditions via a very wet spell from the 18th-24th.

image.thumb.png.b760b8c2fa3a29781c8d47c144ee5805.png image.thumb.png.06f734d0ae68c617192802ed215566f1.png image.thumb.png.e00a326733aae8f294cdf521eec26878.png image.thumb.png.7067a6fc0e560a56ab17442fd89606a4.png 

I think patience might be the word this May. The final chart a huge difference in temperature between London and Edinburgh!

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire

Northern Blocking looks set to hold out into June, which is reminiscent of a very wet and cool summer. Periods in mid May when the weather looks to start becoming more settled again, however this settled weather looks likely to end going into May 21st on the GFS. If this does hold out into June, we might be in for a bit of a disaster here people, a certain Scottish band comes to mind (Wet Wet Wet). Still quite a while off but I’m losing hope quickly. No sign of warmth in May really, and I think May could be the first below average month in 14 months

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

Northern Blocking looks set to hold out into June, which is reminiscent of a very wet and cool summer. Periods in mid May when the weather looks to start becoming more settled again, however this settled weather looks likely to end going into May 21st on the GFS. If this does hold out into June, we might be in for a bit of a disaster here people, a certain Scottish band comes to mind (Wet Wet Wet). Still quite a while off but I’m losing hope quickly. No sign of warmth in May really, and I think May could be the first below average month in 14 months

So, you are saying is that this May, so far, has a lot in common with those of 1975, 1983 and 1995?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, sunny.
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester/Lancashire
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, you are saying is that this May, so far, has a lot in common with those of 1975, 1983 and 1995?:oldgrin:

Sorry for my language, but I bloody hope so

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So, here we are at Wednesday, sitting beneath a deep depression...But isn't 'sunny intervals and heavy, thundery showers' a darned site better than ubiquitous infill-cloud?

image.thumb.png.0370e428a12ffa25615a44df2204cba3.pngimage.thumb.png.bc5eb62948619198d0975e7d6362a422.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

Northern Blocking looks set to hold out into June, which is reminiscent of a very wet and cool summer. Periods in mid May when the weather looks to start becoming more settled again, however this settled weather looks likely to end going into May 21st on the GFS. If this does hold out into June, we might be in for a bit of a disaster here people, a certain Scottish band comes to mind (Wet Wet Wet). Still quite a while off but I’m losing hope quickly. No sign of warmth in May really, and I think May could be the first below average month in 14 months

Just where do you get this kind of a conclusion from!?? One set of GFS output!!! Honestly..... Losing faith!!! It's May 5th....you need to get a grip here, this smacks of mild and wet on the 1st of November, and people starting to suggest winter is over.... This is getting tedious.... 

youre-wrong-believe.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO T144 settling down, with potential for warm air advection courtesy the low to the west.

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ICON T180 looks like some kind of plume although heights to the east tentative:

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I'm sixth sensing an improvement from the 12z runs today, will it be borne out by the GEM and GFS, and ECM later?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Let's catch up with GFS and GEM at T204:

image.thumb.jpg.2e074a5c93b1464e635b2f04f2155eaf.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.645bee3299743fa8fa9dd89304494a73.jpg

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Settled, heat poised to the south, would not take much to pull or push it our way.  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm getting a nasty feeling about where this run might be going!:unknw:

image.thumb.png.de758a617686f16c624c791ede2746c4.pngimage.thumb.png.16c95407c61598c46f252eef887e3415.pngimage.png.24b4624266940c57678b6e50b398b219.png 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Looking OK at day 10 Mike! Can't see what some of the recent gloom is about tbh

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-1-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

At the very end it does look like we could miss a disaster:

image.thumb.png.ac39820b70bafd54a59f725f8e01c310.pngimage.thumb.png.0ac37f8a54e0d97ed68937d22a71c0f7.pngimage.thumb.png.a1ab2fa1caa9058672d4d8c2cc9fbe79.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
25 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Looking OK at day 10 Mike! Can't see what some of the recent gloom is about tbh

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gfs-0-264.png

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 A rather poor set of charts for anyone wanting anything appreciably warm though, jestream anchored to the south and a source of air from a cold NE direction. Things do look like settling down by next weekend, temps moving back to average.

The charts above suggest trough action from the NE, possibly alot of cloud as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And there are some very springlike synoptics on offer!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.a0838976ad1b1caab421eb097f998b11.pngimage.thumb.png.bea340b7634f7399da87e7929c9d844e.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 A rather poor set of charts for anyone wanting anything appreciably warm though, jestream anchored to the south and a source of air from a cold NE direction. Things do look like settling down by next weekend, temps moving back to average.

The charts above suggest trough action from the NE, possibly alot of cloud as well.

As long has we are heading in the right direction though, it won't take long to import very warm air from the south with a few tweaks! And let's not forget at this stage, we are still in early May.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
30 minutes ago, Greggers said:

This is still spring, peeps stop wishing summer synoptics

This is the problem when you get a 25c mini heatwave in April, the bar has suddenly been raised to high, and to early!! 

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