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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Just looking at the ukmo 12h, this long bank holiday weekend really doesn't look bad, sure it's chilly but for many it's dry with sunny spells and a few showers in the east and  widespread frosts but it's only when we get past Mon / Tues when it turns very unsettled.

UW48-21.gif

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Met. Rising Star

Met.

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield
Posted

I find it hilarious how that low pressure system after the northerly just moves over the UK and then sits there going round and round in circles! I always used to think places like Scandinavia would get more low pressure than the UK in summer being further North but they actually get much sunnier warmer and drier weather than we do May-Sept. What makes the low pressure sit over the UK so much? 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

What makes the low pressure sit over the UK so much? 

Blocking to the east and northwest perhaps

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Utter garbage out till next weekend, UKMO looks dire, and icon not much better. Only Consolation is the cold uppers tend to lift a tad!! Until then folks it's hibernation time! 

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-180.png

icon-1-165.png

giphy-4.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Met. Rising Star

Met.

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Blocking to the east and northwest perhaps

Well bear in mind I'm new to looking into this sort of thing, so what is obvious to many here, is not to me, but I'm happy to learn. 

Edited by Thundershine
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

I find it hilarious how that low pressure system after the northerly just moves over the UK and then sits there going round and round in circles! I always used to think places like Scandinavia would get more low pressure than the UK in summer being further North but they actually get much sunnier warmer and drier weather than we do May-Sept. What makes the low pressure sit over the UK so much? 

I think they must have heard you!:oldgood:image.thumb.png.29dfd36c184a0c0366ba8e8f54921705.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Thundershine said:

Well bear in mind I'm new to looking into this sort of thing, so what is obvious to many here, is not to me, but I'm happy to learn. 

I've been at it for years mate, and still clueless.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well folks, this it: record-breaking heat as moist tropical maritime sweeps across the whole of the UK. You saw it here, first!

image.thumb.png.53c3328a1423be781d59e655c9eb1285.pngimage.thumb.png.4d2c87820a108d36ed4c0970dbcf814d.png  :oldgood:

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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well folks, this it: record-breaking heat as moist tropical maritime sweeps across the whole of the UK. You saw it here, first!

image.thumb.png.53c3328a1423be781d59e655c9eb1285.pngimage.thumb.png.4d2c87820a108d36ed4c0970dbcf814d.png  :oldgood:

so - tepid rain...

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looks like there's another plume jim..but not as we know it!:shok:

giphy (2).gif

12_240_mslp850.png

12_240_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted

Gfs 12z continues to be one vile muck fest from start to finish you couldnt actually get a worser run than the 12z. I think I shall refrain for the time being from counting on a warmer and dryer second half to May with the current sypnotic pattern setting up. Not putting any belief in what longer range models are saying.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Even a chance of a stonking thundery breakdown...in France, Belgium and Holland!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.c09af9bce7ce32b3ef305510f9870101.pngimage.thumb.png.05267ae42ab9e2249a41061174bc1da4.png  Kent Clipper?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

image.thumb.png.c09af9bce7ce32b3ef305510f9870101.pngimage.thumb.png.05267ae42ab9e2249a41061174bc1da4.png  Kent Clipper?

Well it's certainly not a Thames streamer

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

12Z ends on a much improved pattern!

image.thumb.png.4c943b061013ef3712e24b522601a3e1.pngimage.thumb.png.8622514670b421d85904a8f55cd3d21b.png :oldgrin:

It goodbye to the PV...along with 1200 other things one's glad to be shot of?:yahoo:

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, Ed Stone said:

12Z ends on a much improved pattern!

image.thumb.png.4c943b061013ef3712e24b522601a3e1.pngimage.thumb.png.8622514670b421d85904a8f55cd3d21b.png :oldgrin:

It goodbye to the PV...along with 1200 other things one's glad to be shot of?:yahoo:

Aye, at least it will be mild

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
18 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Gfs 12z continues to be one vile muck fest from start to finish you couldnt actually get a worser run than the 12z. I think I shall refrain for the time being from counting on a warmer and dryer second half to May with the current sypnotic pattern setting up. Not putting any belief in what longer range models are saying.

Perhaps you should change your name to  8.5*c, then perhaps you won't get so disappointed when it goes backside up.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

I find it hilarious how that low pressure system after the northerly just moves over the UK and then sits there going round and round in circles! I always used to think places like Scandinavia would get more low pressure than the UK in summer being further North but they actually get much sunnier warmer and drier weather than we do May-Sept. What makes the low pressure sit over the UK so much? 

Well on this occasion you will see that there is a massive blocking high pressure over eastern Europe and also the subtropical high pressure is attempting to ridge just to the east of the UK which halts any westerly momentum. Ergo the trough remains over us and we get unsettled weather within the circulation of the stationary  surface low. But fear not...........

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7446400.thumb.png.b212ba129847102142ecf69718bcb528.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7619200.thumb.png.31403e992b9d0fecf5f6de4590fb0e58.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean later next week is the perfect recipe for sunshine and heavy thundery showers with a big trough slap bang over the uk.

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The 12z FV3 becomes increasingly settled and warmer during the second half of the run and the mean also portends an improvement around the same time which also ties in with what exeter are saying..though far from certain at this stage..encouraging all the same! 

GFSPARAEU12_240_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_264_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_288_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_312_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_264_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

And for those of us getting sick of the gunk, here comes the first signs of a much better set up... Strong ridging from the azores and high pressure we'll in control over Europe!!! Stay tuned it could be a good un!! 

Ps... I think Karl beat me to it.

gfs-0-210.png

gfs-0-300.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And some more reinforcements:image.thumb.png.b908b507e6d795bb37f22d4f12150e76.pngimage.thumb.png.43087b330c9b9fafa50e4acd566ab792.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gem 12z is eventually heading in a summery direction!

gem-0-216.png

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

No sudden plumes on the FV3, just a slow and hopefully long-lasting pattern-change...Where there was despair, let there be hope!:oops:

image.thumb.png.e793f24db896acd162d58d66ce7d8ec9.pngimage.thumb.png.f84804b5172abec9e968a77f4e3d17b8.png :oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
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snowsummer Aficionado

snowsummer

Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
Posted
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Utter garbage out till next weekend, UKMO looks dire, and icon not much better. Only Consolation is the cold uppers tend to lift a tad!! Until then folks it's hibernation time! 

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-180.png

icon-1-165.png

giphy-4.gif

I cant hibernate, im off to bognor regis on monday for a week.. Nice looking charts coming into play the week after my holiday  though. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Where there was despair, let there be hope!:oops:

image.thumb.png.e793f24db896acd162d58d66ce7d8ec9.pngimage.thumb.png.f84804b5172abec9e968a77f4e3d17b8.png :oldgrin:

Where there is discord may we bring harmony

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