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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Very good illustration k - thank you

And what the airmass looks like in this area re my comments on cloudscapes in the weather reports area

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=cskew;sess=99ba64c0271afddf8d9da2272a778341

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
36 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

That's alright we're going to Tenby from Mon - Fri next week and apart from Mon & Tues morning it's looking wet & miserable was really hoping for some decent weather as we're doing lots of walking and going on boat trips! 

Not sure about the walking, but certainly good weather for boats hopefully you will get a few windows of fine weather thrown in... Good luck 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the ukmo 12h by next wednesday it's unsettled but at least much milder compared to what's coming from the north very shortly!

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The Mighty GFS's take on next Thursday; I hope we can agree that it's unsettled?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.8bc33ead64321184b4d6d83c7e7d7a8e.pngimage.thumb.png.0794c63c295da00a2c9a0bb368bb3d70.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The Mighty GFS's take on next Thursday; I hope we can agree that it's unsettled?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.8bc33ead64321184b4d6d83c7e7d7a8e.pngimage.thumb.png.0794c63c295da00a2c9a0bb368bb3d70.png 

Indeed Ed, although changeable is by definition unsettled, that is 100 percent unsettled..glad that's unsettled..I mean settled!!!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
49 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The Mighty GFS's take on next Thursday; I hope we can agree that it's unsettled?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.8bc33ead64321184b4d6d83c7e7d7a8e.pngimage.thumb.png.0794c63c295da00a2c9a0bb368bb3d70.png 

If it's any consolation the GEM looks a bit better though than the GFS :oldrofl:  Even though they do handle the low a bit differently even so it still looks a bit pants. 

 

gem-0-174.png

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear:image.thumb.png.1f435a48902a2993c136621b25052249.pngimage.thumb.png.3eeef85f5fa6d2c94f98c0615186babe.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

This time last year it was flip flops and shorts. This year is a complete u turn. What an awful start to a typically summer month

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

This time last year it was flip flops and shorts. This year is a complete u turn. What an awful start to a typically summer month

Last year was pretty exceptional, though.  I still think it will turn much warmer or even hot at times during the second half of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Again there is a signal, this time from the Gfs 12z operational for high pressure to at least try to build in around mid may, other output, including the mean also suggests a switch to more settled from mid month....  As does Exeter!!

12_384_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Last year was pretty exceptional, though.  I still think it will turn much warmer or even hot at times during the second half of the month.

I do hope so. We wait all winter for northern blocking then BANG.... Beginning of May, have as much northern blocking as you can ask for. I can see this pattern being locked in for a considerable time, going with the extended ensembles and others posting on here. Might have to concede and give in that the first half of may is looking most likely to be a write off. Hopefully the 2nd half of may will improve significantly, but im not holding my breath.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

I do hope so. We wait all winter for northern blocking then BANG.... Beginning of May, have as much northern blocking as you can ask for. I can see this pattern being locked in for a considerable time, going with the extended ensembles and others posting on here. Might have to concede and give in that the first half of may is looking most likely to be a write off. Hopefully the 2nd half of may will improve significantly, but im not holding my breath.

We will just have to wait and see, but of course we have the full summer to come yet anyway.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
14 minutes ago, Don said:

We will just have to wait and see, but of course we have the full summer to come yet anyway.

Aye, May isn't summer, next 20 days a write off I'd say, but Whit Week who knows could be better, but even that's not summer

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

GFS = Bland    ECM = Bland    GEM = Bland  

I can see where its all heading. Vile sypnotic patterns are always known to stick around like glue. Wasn't the last time we had a cool start to May back in 2012?  Only two weeks ago it was looking like 2018 repeat now its looking like a 2012 repeat.  Uk weather will do what it pleases so anything can change.  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's a plume, Jim, but not as we know it! image.thumb.png.ea715bfa47ac82ad889c58712a8a0402.png                                                                                                        image.thumb.png.f67babb7b4e9ef06feada3e9fdabcac2.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean also picking up on the switch to more settled around mid month, perhaps a little sooner!!..the second half of May could become a whole lot better for the majority of the uk! 

GFSAVGEU12_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_300_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_324_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_366_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's a plume, Jim, but not as we know it! image.thumb.png.ea715bfa47ac82ad889c58712a8a0402.png                                                                                                        image.thumb.png.f67babb7b4e9ef06feada3e9fdabcac2.png

 

Hopefully we won't kling-on to the cool unsettled weather for too long Ed..

giphy (2).gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
40 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, May isn't summer, next 20 days a write off I'd say, but Whit Week who knows could be better, but even that's not summer

Exactly, that's my point.  We still have June, July and August to come!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Beautiful comma-shaped PolarLow currently developing over Norwegian sea. H/t Mile Rantanen The formation of the low is probably triggered by a tropopause polar vortex (TPV) over the open ocean.

polar.thumb.png.905cf2aca1b57d810afe4342cbb926a7.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z  is looking pretty cold, especially further north and unsettled for most of the time but it's not all doom and gloom as there will be some fine weather this weekend and early next week, especially away from eastern counties bordering the north sea but some frosty nights to come..then more generally unsettled as we go further into next week with wet and windy weather... it ends better though with pressure rising across the board!

240_mslp500 (1).png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

12Z temp ensemble: one member is a stonker, the op almost defies description:

image.thumb.png.ac62de0de8415131d02777f9e6547f32.pngimage.thumb.png.1534f87d35c6551b495d1b50b5b2ec50.png  

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, SizzlingHeat said:

This time last year it was flip flops and shorts. This year is a complete u turn. What an awful start to a typically summer month

Then we can’t expect a long hot summer?  Very different start but also late autumns haven’t helped winter outlooks either so all up in the air (pardon the pun).  One thing though no anticipated plume warmth by some arriving yet...very very tough to call what’s coming.... 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's certainly some stonking potential longer term (mid may onwards) from the GEFS 12z!

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