Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

And then the energy in the west delivers the knockout blow

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7230400.thumb.png.098cb82c34421b578e0d1ee23cb31bb3.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7316800.thumb.png.f55f8efd90bcba860f29478544ab1795.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm much the same through Monday and the trough then comes into play Tues/Weds but runs a little south with the fronts pushing north east across the country

t168.thumb.png.a3d2d9f1216b8921c2accd35cf9dc18e.pngt180.thumb.png.89ae4ac5f4b799e88bdb365457f4b475.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All in all it's safe to say these charts are 3/4 months too late with a poor outlook over the next 7/10 days if its warmer weather you're after.

Very dissappointed atm.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's 00Z looks to be (after the weekend's unpleasantness) something of an improvement. Should the chance of seeing some warmer (or at least less cold) temperatures and rainfall be your thing:

image.thumb.png.fe3d45c31ca4a1a29d899f583786b33f.png

image.thumb.png.fbc1df656c1522b03f5dc24890804b4c.png

image.thumb.png.4619f3f16412158ca1eb23deaa87e08e.png

image.thumb.png.9106aae98187bf777eef22aed83f6797.png

image.thumb.png.4f3b1c5ebe3badecde23b0ba4daa1282.pngimage.thumb.png.68e1931791dff3522d412b771b4307c3.png :oldgrin:

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The cold front is lowly passing through here at the moment

front.thumb.gif.e944e730d96339fdba6afdc1ff1ebcee.gif

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A cold end to the week coming up with a Northerly flow pushing South over the UK. -10c windchill for some spots with sharp frosts & snow showers for the North/Pennines.

1183456165_viewimage-2019-05-01T093606_336.thumb.png.958727c8a02b2e98d0f51a590c657b70.png1135983736_viewimage-2019-05-01T093446_363.thumb.png.cfc8873d0cf1623ed41f33eb225c27a0.png

 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Signs of improvement longer term on the Ecm 00z ensemble mean but before that a lot of cold weather is indicated, especially for scotland and damaging frosts can be expected from later this week.

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not the greatest of BH Monday's coming up...if only those deep Atlantic depressions were a few hundred miles further east?

image.thumb.png.4da6663c9b65094367fc086ac8ca46b4.pngimage.thumb.png.efa3b4ed565524b81492504069d33bd3.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A sense of deja vu with the models depicting a change in the HLB orientation next week, from Pacific-Atlantic to Asia-N. America, that opens the door to south-tracking lows crossing or passing just south of the UK from west to east.

It didn’t come around this week after they predicted it last week, so it will be worthy of note (for future forecasting) should the same misfire be observed again this time. Usually though, it proves to just be a case of the models having been too quick; the change does occur in the end.

Remains to be seen whether the lows track fat north enough to affect the UK. It’s possible that as the CCKW crosses the Indian Ocean and contradicts the Nino base state, SLP will fall further south across Europe than currently modelled.

I have a feeling we’ll end up looking to the E or SE again for a decent warm-up. Often happens for a time during HLB-dominated Mays; 2012 a recent example (hopefully not a harbinger for the summer months!).

Yes i think may 1996 had some northern blocking and the June that followed was fabulous.

That is one straw i'm holding to in the face of some dreadful charts, i posted last week about the potential for a really poor spell of weather when the models were signposting HLB ..

 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i think may 1996 had some northern blocking and the June that followed was fabulous.

That is one straw i'm holding to in the face of some dreadful charts, i posted last week about the potential for a really poor spell of weather when the models were signposting HLB ..

Indeed, NWS...Today's charts may not look all that pretty, but crap weather between late April and early June is hardly unheard of.

image.thumb.png.99918dde342449e73ce3761e2f6a57c0.pngimage.thumb.png.f4392123186ecbb0b0420908d1087969.png 

!975, 1983, 1989, 1995 and 1996, to name but five, all had spells of nastiness during Spring...But they all turned-out quite well?:oldgrin:

image.png.cc950936f975ce7f2e571f5c9616b719.png

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Awful outlook this morning from all the main models, very deflating. I thought we were done with raw feeling days with bitter wind chills after that spell in April. A big shame really, I had high hopes of a similar May to last year but it's looking like this upcoming bank holiday will be in stark contrast to last year's with the very warm conditions.

Hard to see a way out of the current pattern, but we also felt that in April when the month started cold. Hopefully things will shift over the next few days.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

 

I have a feeling we’ll end up looking to the E or SE again for a decent warm-up. Often happens for a time during HLB-dominated Mays; 2012 a recent example (hopefully not a harbinger for the summer months!).

I really hope we don't get a repeat of May 2012, which was for the most part an awful month. Yes there was the late (and beautiful) warm spell but we really had to suffer for it before that with such a cold first half of the month. 2012 really was a miserable year for warm weather fans with the exception of March and a couple of brief spells here and there. Even the autumn was bereft of any warmth.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many a May have had a cold and/or unsettled first half, only to improve markedly into the second half. One May that was Atlantic-based pretty much throughout until the last week was 2003, and we all known what followed. 2004 was very poor to start but quickly improved after midmonth (although we don't want a mid-May to mid-June prolonged settled spell if it means a deterioration by July). 2010 is a good example of a predominantly cold but not too unsettled first 2/3 of May that like a switch turned hot and sunny around the 21st. As said above, even the unsettled May of 2012 managed that super spell in the final week.

Anyway, a cool or cold outlook, with temperature struggling to average let alone above. Rain looks variable though so by no means a washout and Bank Holiday looks usable at least, if a bit unseasonal. If we were getting these charts around the time our summer base state tends to set in, then I'd be a little more concerned.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reading all these sad posts makes me want to get my violin out!😁

The models are looking increasingly cool and changeable / unsettled but it's still spring for another month so no damage done..apart from the frosts on the way.😉

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But, as is nearly always the case, the end of the run is better than the start. Nowt all that settled (yet) but warm-and-unsettled is better than cold? And some of us need some proper rain!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.ec842b647af8e6cc0f3848a7f0363d75.pngimage.thumb.png.da0ce1a981a8b1d702ccd8c01b265c7e.png 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Awful outlook this morning from all the main models, very deflating. I thought we were done with raw feeling days with bitter wind chills after that spell in April. A big shame really, I had high hopes of a similar May to last year but it's looking like this upcoming bank holiday will be in stark contrast to last year's with the very warm conditions.

Hard to see a way out of the current pattern, but we also felt that in April when the month started cold. Hopefully things will shift over the next few days.

How can you fail to see a way out of the current output! Firstly the models may look completely different inside the next 24/48hrs, and secondly its the 1st of May! Alot of fine lengthy summers come on the back of cold/cool unsettled spells in late spring. It's hardly throw the towel in is it! I would be more worried if we was locked into a continued heatwave through May! For example it peaking to soon. This is a slight blip in what is sure to be a summer of many fine, very warm spells! Let's remember folks, it's the 1st of May, not the 1st of July! I thi k to many have got lulled into a false sense of security because of the last couple of very warm spells!! Let's not forget those spells were a tad premature! Refrain from towel throwing just yet folks..... Please!!! 

giphy-2.gif

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Hard to see a way out of the current pattern, but we also felt that in April when the month started cold. Hopefully things will shift over the next few days.

The first real 'summer's over' post of the new season!:oldgrin:

But, it's not really like that: how much change would it really take, for things to improve?

image.thumb.png.3a0c1021daee0a3681e91e344eba7db3.pngimage.thumb.png.65d4afb81fefe97ac527bcbeab14b764.png 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The first real 'summer's over' post of the new season!:oldgrin:

But, it's not really like that: how much change would it really take, for things to improve?

image.thumb.png.3a0c1021daee0a3681e91e344eba7db3.pngimage.thumb.png.65d4afb81fefe97ac527bcbeab14b764.png 

Well it's simple Pete, high pressure devoloping from the azores, or even becoming stationary over scandy, allowing for a warm E/SEtly. I dread this time of year, just like I dread December! A couple of days or a week or so of the wrong weather type, and it will be summer is over, or winter is over... Before it even gets going! There seems to be a serious lack of patience, let's be honest here Pete, we were long overdue a colder unsettled interlude... Its best it comes now, rather than summer proper if you ask me.. 👍

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The longer term GEFS 6z mean looks increasingly settled and warmer.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back end of the FV3 shows definite signs of improvement; though hardly a heatwave:

image.thumb.png.83f049efc9fefe30aac69fd70f25838e.pngimage.thumb.png.e75e8f8586aacd26f3a77d073e598c52.png 

image.thumb.png.f773a9879f9fd0b453aa24b84592bf2d.pngimage.thumb.png.1b4b946b80c6f802e47037223a6e3c0b.png Precip spikes too! 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM clusters also looking much more settled at the end. Here's day 13:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019050100_300.

High pressure building. One to keep an eye on. The first 10-12 days of the month looking unsettled and cool, no getting away from that.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...