Cyclone Fani

[karyo]

Cyclone Fani has formed in the Bay of Bengal and it is moving towards India’s east coast at 16mph. The cyclone has sustained winds of 90 knots currently and it is expected to intensify further in the next day or so. Fani is moving northwestwards currently but its track is likely to change to northerly by tomorrow and then northeast after that. It is expected to make landfall in northeast India (southwest of Calcutta) by Friday.

You can see the track and expected strength here: https://www.cyclocane.com/fani-storm-tracker/ 

By the way, does anybody know if there is a way to view what the main models show for India and south Asia in general? The GFS and ECM have the north hemisphere view but it falls short of covering this area which is a pity as more than a billion people leave there.

[karyo]

Cyclone Fani now has sustained winds of 105 knots and it is starting to track more to the north. It is expected to turn northeast by the end of the day. Although the expectation is that it will make landfall in the northeast India, the track has shifted east compared to yesterday and some models take it to Bangladesh. This is because the high pressure to the east has eroded faster than expected. 

https://www.cyclocane.com/fani-storm-tracker/#section_2

[Blessed Weather]

16 hours ago, karyo said:

Cyclone Fani has formed in the Bay of Bengal and it is moving towards India’s east coast at 16mph. The cyclone has sustained winds of 90 knots currently and it is expected to intensify further in the next day or so. Fani is moving northwestwards currently but its track is likely to change to northerly by tomorrow and then northeast after that. It is expected to make landfall in northeast India (southwest of Calcutta) by Friday.

You can see the track and expected strength here: https://www.cyclocane.com/fani-storm-tracker/ 

By the way, does anybody know if there is a way to view what the main models show for India and south Asia in general? The GFS and ECM have the north hemisphere view but it falls short of covering this area which is a pity as more than a billion people leave there.

Weather.us allows you to select the Region/Country etc., the model (incl ECM, ICON, GFS) and the type of chart. Select the model from the homescreen and then drill down the selections. For map selection choose 'Asia & Australia',  'Southern Asia' and 'India'.

Here's a screenshot example:

Link: https://weather.us/model-charts/

Both GFS and ECM have Fani moving along the coast before landing in the NE of India and fizzling near the Bangladesh border.

GFS Windcharts 01 May  03 May

Ben Noll tweeting that the MJO and Indian Ocean SSTs playing a role in the creation of the cyclone:

"The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) caused a favorable environment for cyclones in the Indian Ocean during February-March-April."

"Sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have in large part been above average, tipping the odds of the MJO to be active in the basin"

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1123328309427748864

[karyo]

Thank you @Blessed Weather, that's really helpful!

[karyo]

So many people are likely to be affected!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/more-than-100-million-in-the-path-of-life-threatening-cyclone-fani/70008144

[matty40s]

The next 24 hours could be catastrophic. Advice from authorities to stay inside along with other guidelines that thatched properties could be completely destroyed bodies I'll.

[karyo]

I hope the residents of Puri have been evacuated. This is a city of 200,000 people and right on the coast. Most models agree on Fani making landfall there and then continuing north to Cuttack. Cuttack is a bigger city and although inland, it is surrounded by water (Mahanandi river). The flooding there could be catastrophic!

[karyo]

The eye looks perfectly clear now! Also the move northwards seems to have slowed down a lot.

https://www.cyclocane.com/fani-storm-tracker/

[karyo]

The cyclone has strengthened considerably in the last 6 hours. The winds are now on 135 knots while the earlier forecast was talking about a maximum of 115 knots. This is bound to cause a bigger storm surge when it makes landfall tomorrow.

https://www.cyclocane.com/fani-storm-tracker/

[Blessed Weather]

Met Office have just tweeted this image and comment:

Cyclone Fani has continued strengthening and at its current intensity would be the strongest cyclone to make landfall over India since the devastating Odisha Cyclone of 1999.

https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1123965174208241664

Edit: And in a second tweet:

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani in the Bay of Bengal is expected to make landfall on Friday. Winds up to 130 mph are expected with a 2 meter storm surge and up to 700 mm of rain.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1123961842898882560

Edited May 2, 2019 by Blessed Weather

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Met Office have just tweeted this image and comment:

Cyclone Fani has continued strengthening and at its current intensity would be the strongest cyclone to make landfall over India since the devastating Odisha Cyclone of 1999.

https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1123965174208241664

Edit: And in a second tweet:

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani in the Bay of Bengal is expected to make landfall on Friday. Winds up to 130 mph are expected with a 2 meter storm surge and up to 700 mm of rain.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1123961842898882560

It looks like Cyclone Fani can be added to the tropical cyclones/hurricanes that have exceeded the strength that was predicted by the models. A clear trend in the last few years.

[Man With Beard]

Seems these type of storms are becoming the norm across the globe

[karyo]

Fani made landfall near Puri as a category 4 equivalent (150mph winds). Moving northeastwards it is weakening over land.

Quite an interesting comment from the meteorologist on CNN disagreeing with the Indian Meteo Office on the level of storm serge. He thinks it will be more like 4+metres than the 1.5 metre that the Indian Meteo is predicting.

https://edition.cnn.com/india/live-news/cyclone-fani-live-updates-wxc-intl/index.html

[Had Worse]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

Fani made landfall near Puri as a category 4 equivalent (150mph winds). Moving northeastwards it is weakening over land.

Quite an interesting comment from the meteorologist on CNN disagreeing with the Indian Meteo Office on the level of storm serge. He thinks it will be more like 4+metres than the 1.5 metre that the Indian Meteo is predicting.

https://edition.cnn.com/india/live-news/cyclone-fani-live-updates-wxc-intl/index.html

1.5m, you keep you head above water (unless your small or a child), 4m+ would get to the ceiling of most two story houses.

 

Either way the people involved are guaranteed to get their feet wet. 

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

1.5m, you keep you head above water (unless your small or a child), 4m+ would get to the ceiling of most two story houses.

 

Either way the people involved are guaranteed to get their feet wet. 

Yes, a huge difference! 

The latest update is talking about a significant weakening of the cyclone now that it is over land. The main concern from now on will be the flooding especially when the system makes it to the southern slopes of the Himalayas over the weekend.

https://www.cyclocane.com/fani-storm-tracker/

[Jo Farrow]

 Stunning image

[karyo]

It looks like India was well prepared for this storm and it has paid off judging by the reports. So far 2 people are known to have died. Although the death toll may rise to some extend, we should not see a repeat of Mozambique.