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Latest GFS has this tracking further north than yesterday and closer to the original track. It brings some lively winds across southern Ireland into Wales Friday evening into Saturday morning. Track could change again as could the strength tomorrows GFS and ECM should be interesting.

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ECM a bit deeper at 00z Sat than GFS, stronger winds but confined probably where warnings are now, Met Office chart has low 991mb

GFS not quite as deep but coastal gales likely for more of Wales.

2504hannahlow.png

2504Meteirewarn.png

2504mowarnwindSW.png

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16 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

Does ECM look even stronger PIT?

Not out yet. GFS seems to the same waiting for ECM to come out.

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Although scuppering my plans for a walk up to Kinder Scout on the 87th anniversary of the Kinder Mass Trespass, Hannah will be bringing much-needed rainfall across the moorland tops of the Pennines before High Pressure settles back in again next week.

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If it was a little deeper and a little slower moving I would be looking closely at this for storm surges. Here I am thinking about the Bristol channel and later down the British channel onto the continent. Storm surge models currently don't show too much to worry about though.

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Interesting diiferances between our local forecast by the met office which has the highest gust of 40 mph Saturday night into Sunday and the netweather one which has gusts just over 50 mph from 10 until 16:00 hrs. Who will be nearer the mark.

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Now picking up south west Ireland with gusts to 63 mph. Doesn't see much in the way of rain associated with the system though. This isn't good news. Looks like pond topping going to be required after all though.

Edited by The PIT
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A fantastic water vapour image of Hannah as the storm hits Ireland this evening.

19.15  988235913_HannahWV26April19_15.thumb.jpg.5efb8e34f28963d3203da5c3e9e33bf5.jpg

Met Eireann have a Red Warning out for this evening:

Status RED - Wind Warning for Clare Northwesterly winds, associated with Storm Hannah, will reach mean speeds in excess of 80 km/h with violent gusts of 130 to 150 km/h for a time this evening.
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1121736896697241600

The paper The dry intrusion perspective of extra-tropical cyclone development from Browning (1997) noted the following (click on the title to go to the full paper):

Parts of dry intrusions are characterised by high potential vorticity and, upon approaching a low-level baroclinic zone, rapid cyclogenesis may be expected to ensue.

With thanks to Simon Lee for the heads up on the Browning paper:
https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1121707452125384705

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4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Wales is pinching all the rain, will have to water the new trees again if it doesn't pour today.

Ponds will need to be topped up. I've been putting it off due to heavy showers and Thunderstorms and now Storm Hanna. However the now normal lack of stormy weather is continuing.

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The yellow warning that was a waste of time and hasn't been updated by the Met Office. The Met Office updated their Yellow warning yesterday morning @09:54, and haven't bothered with it since. Clearly they post yellow warnings and can no longer be bothered to adjust their track or overlays, or possible effects. Makes you wonder if they can be @rsed if they don't get to name the storm it's like "Yeah whatever...".

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59 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

The yellow warning that was a waste of time and hasn't been updated by the Met Office. The Met Office updated their Yellow warning yesterday morning @09:54, and haven't bothered with it since. Clearly they post yellow warnings and can no longer be bothered to adjust their track or overlays, or possible effects. Makes you wonder if they can be @rsed if they don't get to name the storm it's like "Yeah whatever...".

Yup the met office weather warning system is generally broken and not up to the purpose. The basis on supposed impact seems to depend on forgive the pun which way the wind is blowing at the time of issue. Then the person who does the warning leaves the office for the next few days and the warnings don't get updated or removed to reflect the conditions.  

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