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1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

But are we all expecting a 20 degree rise in 9-10 hours?  I think it’ll be tough to hit 40

Well clearly most people are I don't but this site is full of over excited people who may or may not be proved right tomorrow.

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

But are we all expecting a 20 degree rise in 9-10 hours?  I think it’ll be tough to hit 40

Yes - only recently Cavendish was the UK min and UK max on the same day. I think the diurnal range was around the same amount. It’s more than achievable.

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9 hours ago, Earthshine said:

The human body can handle 40°C if you don't exert yourself.  Sweating is a very efficient means of dissipating body heat.  However what people don't realise is that the UK is very humid and hence sweat will less readily evaporate.  This means the body is less able to transfer heat to the air and overheating becomes a major concern.  In arid, windy environments, sweating is more than enough for most people to keep cool (especially combined with shade).

The problem is the houses here!

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2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

 

I only say it because Marco (chief MO meteorologist) tweeted that tonight’s min temps will be marginally higher than last night. So perhaps they were basing the 39 partly on that. But tonight will be cooler than last night.

Worth noting the temperatures are 2-3c higher still than the GFS/ECM which peak at 36c. Meanwhile ARPEGE has temperatures for 21z around 24-25c, which is about right in many places but maybe a smidge high, and it goes to 39-40C. All this suggests 39c is quite possibly in the right ballpark

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28 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

warmer than early June, as early Aug should be, but can feel 2 unsettled weeks coming up, just looking at last few days models

Oh you know it. August is usually garbage and marks the start of autumn for me, at least mentally.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

LNER have cancelled 37 trains tomorrow and have issued a do not travel warning ahead of the heat

 

That's the problem with welded rails.  They buckle in hot weather and snap during extreme cold. The old days of short lengths of rail joined by fishplates were far better.  They allowed an amount of expansion or contraction to occur to prevent buckling or snapping.  It's those fishplate couplings that led to the diddly-dum, diddly-dum you may recollect from the wheels crossing the couplings during the days of steam.

Edited by Wildswimmer Pete
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Just now, Wildswimmer Pete said:

That's the problem with welded rails.  They buckle in hot weather and snap during extreme cold. The old days of short lengths of rail joined by fishplates were far better.  They allowed an amount of expansion to occur to prevent buckling or snapping.  It's those fishplate couplings led to the diddly-dum, diddly-dum you may recollect from the  wheels crossing the couplings during the days of steam.

Problem is that Network Rail couldn't afford to employ the lengthmen necessary to maintain 110 foot jointed rail to the required safety standard.

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Its not about money! yes steel will get hot and expand the Victorian builders knew this! Run the stock at a slower speed if you have to, but no need to cancel the service.

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A nice hot day with just about the right amount of cloud to avoid burning.  Overnight min 18.4C . according my weather station and my mate's vehicle thermo we reached 29C. Bear in mind this is a spot reading for my location.  Current temp is 20.1C.  Dry all day after overnight thunderstorms. Pressure 1009mb

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39 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

But are we all expecting a 20 degree rise in 9-10 hours?  I think it’ll be tough to hit 40

Temperatures will likely level out during the early hours as the true continental heat arrives. They will soar during the morning at possibly a few degrees an hour so we should be okay. 

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Taking a conversation from the MOD thread : if we miss the record by a fraction, would that really mean it was cooler than 2003? Gravesend would have been in with a great shout of the top spot tomorrow, but the station no longer exists. 

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36 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Temperatures will likely level out during the early hours as the true continental heat arrives. They will soar during the morning at possibly a few degrees an hour so we should be okay. 

Yeah the highest heat and most impressive thickness starts to really stream in between 3-6am and so temps should hold from that point.

Going to rapidly get to 30c tomorrow, gonna get the dog out nice and early.

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21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Taking a conversation from the MOD thread : if we miss the record by a fraction, would that really mean it was cooler than 2003? Gravesend would have been in with a great shout of the top spot tomorrow, but the station no longer exists. 

This is the great problem with official and 'unofficial' stations. Many many times perfectly accurate stations with higher temps are disregarded for lower official ones. 

Arguably the two warmest stations in the UK, Gravesend and Faversham, are no longer counted. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they get to or surpass 40c only to be disregarded for Heathrow at 39.5c ?

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3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Are you sure about that? Here is the AO and sunspot numbers... can't see a pattern there, maybe a weak relationship since the mid-1970s at the very best.

It's supposed to be correlated to geomagnetic activity rather than raw sunspot data. Can be periods of strong solar burst even at minimum. Ant Massiello has been covering some of this over recent years. You were seeing some interesting signature in Atlantic SSTs ? ... Europe multi-model ensemble has a nice tripole in place by December.

IMME_tmpsfc_lead5.png

 

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42 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Taking a conversation from the MOD thread : if we miss the record by a fraction, would that really mean it was cooler than 2003? Gravesend would have been in with a great shout of the top spot tomorrow, but the station no longer exists. 

I don’t know much about the specifics, but I have just read that this site was closed due to landscaping changes in relation to the development of a new theme park.  I personally think this station should have have been retained and find it ironic that Paramount Park was granted via Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project status in 2014, yet a nationally significant weather station in terms of its hottest day records (including briefly the UK record) in particular has had to close to make way for it!  Whilst a fan of theme parks, I think some or all of the station could have probably have been designed into the development and would certainly argue for continuity with data collection and that the retention of this station would have been of greater national significance (but without scuppering plans for the theme park). It annoys me when things like this are either not fully thought through...as does the lack of continuity in data collection. Would have been good to compare this to 2003, although Brogdale Farm in Faversham still exists apparently? 

Edited by Mr Bartlettazores
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1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

It's supposed to be correlated to geomagnetic activity rather than raw sunspot data. Can be periods of strong solar burst even at minimum. Ant Massiello has been covering some of this over recent years. You were seeing some interesting signature in Atlantic SSTs ? ... Europe multi-model ensemble has a nice tripole in place by December.

IMME_tmpsfc_lead5.png

 

Unfortunately, I think those exceptionally warm waters in the North East Pacific will cancel out the tripole effects ?

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12 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Air conditioning isn’t that expensive anymore. Cheaper options are available that very successfully cool down a chosen room. Mobile units work well (my friend has one from Argos, cost £300, bedroom is like an ice box and it’s a big room in an old, hot house). 

I got a small unit for £200 from CPC and it works like a dream (Aldi/Lidl also sell them sometimes). Gets my bedroom (10sq.m. in size) down by several degrees in under an hour. This evening it went from 31C to 22C in a couple of hours.

It's a worthwhile investment if you can afford it - costs about 50p in electricity to run all night and should have a long life as it will only be used for a couple of months (if that) each year and only at night if you just want it cool for sleeping.

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Mid-Essex missed out on 30+C at the end-of-June plume, but it finally reached 31.7C at Writtle and 30.3C at Andrewsfield yesterday (Tues), although my station 'only' got to 29.7C.

However, I got to 33.6C today and Writtle (warmest in UK) got to 34.3C; Andrewsfield 32.7C.

Forecasts for tomorrow here range from 32C to 37C; I suspect it'll be around 36C. The all-time max for Writtle is 35.7C; Andrewsfield 35.9C (both 10/8/03).

By the way, I've been logging the forecast temps from seven online forecasters for Chelmsford over the last few days and will post results of their accuracy later this week.

Edited by h2005__uk__
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8 minutes ago, Loifeless said:

25.1c in Kenley on the London border already at 7am, 2c above predicted already there.

Impressive start there, quite a few stations of to a quick start as well.

I think 39 looks solid, 40 is going to be 50-50.

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 Yes Amazing that it came off,normally we miss out on any really hot or cold spell,let's hope we hit 40 c that some models have been showing

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