Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[cheeky_monkey]

15 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looks like it, below average SSTs are further west next to Newfoundland and we have warm SSTs to our west and NW...

looks like La Nina is making a go of appearing? 

[Don]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

looks like La Nina is making a go of appearing? 

Not liking that warmth in the North Eastern Pacific.

[Captain Shortwave]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But seen as we are not allowed a winter thread, what thread can we use to discuss these kinds of things in please?

The trouble is that a lot can change between summer and December regarding the background signals. That is why the following seasonal thread is opened usually during the middle of the current one. When we can get an proper idea of some of the cards in play.

still can the blocked northern hemisphere profile persist into Autumn, I suspect it will for a while longer. Probably the best place to go.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[Summer Sun]

LNER have cancelled 37 trains tomorrow and have issued a do not travel warning ahead of the heat

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Wrong type of heat?

Cant they just go a bit slower? But still go lol.

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

LNER have cancelled 37 trains tomorrow and have issued a do not travel warning ahead of the heat

 

I do not miss catching the train in this country. Our public transport is appalling.

i was on the train during the July record day a few years back and it was vile. Why do they never have working air conditioners?

i do kind of miss tweeting network rail and South western railway every morning to remind them of their incompetence. I think there was a run of 17 days where I didn’t make it to work on time once.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

will say though after this hot spell, the models look pants, have done now for last 4 days or so, think it's safe to write off next 2 weeks after this Fri

What are you basing this on? Firstly a NW/SE split does not acquaint to pants... And secondly I don't see anything in the extended ens, the EC 46 or alike to suggest it's a write off... Bit of a far fetched claim that Atlantic. 

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Met.]

Just now, Azazel said:

I do not miss catching the train in this country. Our public transport is appalling.

i was on the train during the July record day a few years back and it was vile. Why do they never have working air conditioners?

i do kind of miss tweeting network rail and South western railway every morning to remind them of their incompetence. I think there was a run of 17 days where I didn’t make it to work on time once.

Seems like all the worst trains in the UK are in the South East. When I went back from Stansted Airport into London the train shook and rollicked about all over the place like one of those bucking bronco's. Ridiculous, thought it would de-rail any second. Trains in France are far far better, and they don't get cancelled for one hot day, either.

[Arctic Hare]

As far as tomorrow goes, I have a sneaking feeling that encroaching mid-level cloud in the afternoon may get in the way of breaking the UK all-time record. I'm almost certain the July record will fall, but getting past August 2003 may be just too much to ask. It would be typical if it was 38.4 °C, wouldn't it?!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What are you basing this on? Firstly a NW/SE split does not acquaint to pants... And secondly I don't see anything in the extended ens, the EC 46 or alike to suggest it's a write off... Bit of a far fetched claim that Atlantic. 

just seems troughy to me, hate troughs, temps can struggle in these setups

 

[Froze were the Days]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Not liking that warmth in the North Eastern Pacific.

An ever present feature over the last 5/6 winters and hardly ever wanes, at least as Quicksilver has mentioned over this side of the pond more warmer SST,s around Greenland/Iceland and somewhat further south unlike last winter.

[Stabilo19]

I can confirm south western railway are still terrible lol. I’m delayed almost everyday, BUT they do have air con on every train now.

 

Think it’s a bit excessive to cancel trains tomorrow but I’m not an expert on our train infrastructure. Anyone?

Edited July 24, 2019 by Stabilo19

[DAVID SNOW]

EC 46 or whatever it is , is usually pants, warm in the se for August(who would have thunk that lol) further N and W not so good imo.

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

As far as tomorrow goes, I have a sneaking feeling that encroaching mid-level cloud in the afternoon may get in the way of breaking the UK all-time record. I'm almost certain the July record will fall, but getting past August 2003 may be just too much to ask. It would be typical if it was 38.4 °C, wouldn't it?!

I suspect with such a wide area expected to get to 36-37c, you'd have to think at least one station will sneak past the record.

Peak temperature today was 34.3C, which was pretty close to the extreme end of what was expected by the warmest models (and 2-4C higher than ECm/GFS were expecting. Apply the same difference to the forecast tomorrow, and you get that 39C that has been expected).

My gut is we do get past it, I'm not convinced however we are going to get to that magical 40 however...

Worth noting some of the more agressive models with the breakdown are proving way too keen to break storms out over France this evening as well.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

just seems troughy to me, hate troughs, temps can struggle in these setups

 

Yes, but thats an operational at day 6 and it won't give you much of an indicator for the following 7-10days. I really can't see a repeat of early June either way you look at it. I strongly fancy further plume activity through August! Not because that's the weather I want, just for the fact that's the way things are setting up... But please shoot me down if I'm wrong...

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

LNER have cancelled 37 trains tomorrow and have issued a do not travel warning ahead of the heat

 

Does that mean Southern Trains are cancelling theirs, on Friday?

[Stabilo19]

I don’t wanna call bust, however, i’m concerned the temperatures are slipping away too fast under clear skies - London is already down to 26 C, meanwhile Paris is still 33 C. (I know their max is forecast to be higher, but not by 7 degrees). We could be at 19/20 C by morning and it seems inconceivable to have a 20 degree rise? My gut feeling is the absolute max will be 38.

 

+ last night we had the storms to provide insulation so we can’t make a comparison between today’s temp rise and tomorrow’s.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

warmer than early June, as early Aug should be, but can feel 2 unsettled weeks coming up, just looking at last few days models

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

I don’t wanna call bust, however, i’m concerned the temperatures are slipping away too fast under clear skies - London is already down to 26 C, meanwhile Paris is still 33 C. (I know their max is forecast to be higher, but not by 7 degrees). We could be at 19/20 C by morning and it seems inconceivable to have a 20 degree rise? My gut feeling is the absolute max will be 38.

 

+ last night we had the storms to provide insulation so we can’t make a comparison between today’s temp rise and tomorrow’s.

 

Slipping away? Any chance of a ground frost?

[Stabilo19]

2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Slipping away? Any chance of a ground frost?

lol freezing in Guildford atm

 

Heathrow at the same time yesterday was 28 for comparison 

[NTC]

6 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

I don’t wanna call bust, however, i’m concerned the temperatures are slipping away too fast under clear skies - London is already down to 26 C, meanwhile Paris is still 33 C. (I know their max is forecast to be higher, but not by 7 degrees). We could be at 19/20 C by morning and it seems inconceivable to have a 20 degree rise? My gut feeling is the absolute max will be 38.

 

+ last night we had the storms to provide insulation so we can’t make a comparison between today’s temp rise and tomorrow’s.

 

All of the UK was forecast to fall below 20c tonight 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

I don’t wanna call bust, however, i’m concerned the temperatures are slipping away too fast under clear skies - London is already down to 26 C, meanwhile Paris is still 33 C. (I know their max is forecast to be higher, but not by 7 degrees). We could be at 19/20 C by morning and it seems inconceivable to have a 20 degree rise? My gut feeling is the absolute max will be 38.

 

+ last night we had the storms to provide insulation so we can’t make a comparison between today’s temp rise and tomorrow’s.

 

Are they falling away any faster than the models predict though?  -  The ones that are predicting the highest temps tomorrow - that's the key.

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

I don’t wanna call bust, however, i’m concerned the temperatures are slipping away too fast under clear skies - London is already down to 26 C, meanwhile Paris is still 33 C. (I know their max is forecast to be higher, but not by 7 degrees). We could be at 19/20 C by morning and it seems inconceivable to have a 20 degree rise? My gut feeling is the absolute max will be 38.

 

+ last night we had the storms to provide insulation so we can’t make a comparison between today’s temp rise and tomorrow’s.

 

Not at all, the August 2003 record started from similar minima. As the meto explained in their really good video yesterday, the air is so warm tomorrow that it can reach 33c without much effort. The rest of the day will be going beyond this. I’d expect 30c+ by 11am, with the maximum around 4pm.

[Stabilo19]

Just now, NTC said:

All of the UK was forecast to fall below 20c tonight 

But are we all expecting a 20 degree rise in 9-10 hours?  I think it’ll be tough to hit 40

[Stabilo19]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are they falling away any faster than the models predict though?  -  The ones that are predicting the highest temps tomorrow - that's the key.

 

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not at all, the August 2003 record started from similar minima. As the meto explained in their really good video yesterday, the air is so warm tomorrow that it can reach 33c without much effort. The rest of the day will be going beyond this. I’d expect 30c+ by 11am, with the maximum around 4pm.

I only say it because Marco (chief MO meteorologist) tweeted that tonight’s min temps will be marginally higher than last night. So perhaps they were basing the 39 partly on that. But tonight will be cooler than last night.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Stabilo19