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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

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1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

They were also made much more likely by AGW.

Interesting times then - with a huge melt season this year - lets hope for some record breaking UK cold this winter, seems like everything setup well - just worried about whether the e-qbo will downwell quick enough, thats the only concern for me.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

lets hope for some record breaking UK cold this winter, seems like everything setup well

Now where have I heard that before?...oh yes last year! :oldrofl:

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Now where have I heard that before?...oh yes last year! :oldrofl:

Don't forget though we hadn't hit solar min then - the analogues for winters before solar min were not that inspiring, the one's afterwards were better. depends when the actual solar min is, haven't looked yet at solar output, will do once we get summer out of the way.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Interesting times then - with a huge melt season this year - lets hope for some record breaking UK cold this winter, seems like everything setup well - just worried about whether the e-qbo will downwell quick enough, thats the only concern for me.

It seems in recent years our hot spells are getting hotter whilst our winter getting warmer as 20c in winter this year proved

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It seems in recent years our hot spells are getting hotter whilst our winter getting warmer as 20c in winter this year proved

Yes in the last few years i agree but don't forget the all time UK low record wasn't far off being breached in 1995, plus nearly the coldest Dec CET in 300 odd years of records and the coldest in 100 years and the third coldest of any month in my lifetime, all within the era of global warming.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It seems in recent years our hot spells are getting hotter whilst our winter getting warmer as 20c in winter this year proved

Coldest March day on record -4.7c in Tredegar on march the 1st 2018, so does that now mean that our springs are getting colder then?

Edited by coldie
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1 minute ago, coldie said:

Coldest March day on record -4.7c in Tredegar on march the 1st 2018, so does that now mean that our springs are getting colder then?

To be fair generally i think our early springs are getting colder and our late Autumns are getting warmer, although again anomalies lile Nov 2010 can still happen.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes in the last few years i agree but don't forget the all time UK low record wasn't far off being breached in 1995, plus nearly the coldest Dec CET in 300 odd years of records and the coldest in 100 years and the third coldest of any month in my lifetime, all within the era of global warming.

Something which we should take note of since December 2010 we haven't managed 1 winter month with a CET of 1c below normal - worrying!

Edited by Froze were the Days
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In terms of extremes let’s not forget 1st October 2011 - 30c. 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair generally i think our early springs are getting colder and our late Autumns are getting warmer, although again anomalies lile Nov 2010 can still happen.

Oh I agree it seems that extremes are becoming a lot more common whether it be hot or cold, all this talk of 40c being breached for the first time in the UK what's not to say -30c won't be breached within the next few winters.

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1 minute ago, coldie said:

Oh I agree it seems that extremes are becoming a lot more common whether it be hot or cold, all this talk of 40c being breached for the first time in the UK what's not to say -30c won't be breached within the next few winters.

Yes, although might have to be an initial Easterly followed by a UK high, our options to the North are looking weaker lately.

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E.G. 50 extreme heat events and 1 extreme cold event happening around the world

Which one will the climate change deniers shout about? 

 

Whats happening around the world month on month is unprecedented.

Edited by Stabilo19

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11 minutes ago, coldie said:

Oh I agree it seems that extremes are becoming a lot more common whether it be hot or cold, all this talk of 40c being breached for the first time in the UK what's not to say -30c won't be breached within the next few winters.

er yeah, -30 in Russia maybe, here, not a chance, much more likely to make 20C

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2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

E.G. 50 extreme heat events and 1 extreme cold event happening around the world

Which one will the climate change deniers shout about? 

 

Whats happening around the world month on month is unprecedented.

Why are you turning it into a climate change debate?

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Just now, coldie said:

Why are you turning it into a climate change debate?

Because you said this:

23 minutes ago, coldie said:

Coldest March day on record -4.7c in Tredegar on march the 1st 2018, so does that now mean that our springs are getting colder then?

It’s ignorant lol

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And saying winters are getting milder just because we reached 20c in february isn't ignorant?Anyway I was only stating that weather extremes are getting a lot more frequent whether it be HOT or cold as I mentioned in one of my previous comments. Also where exactly did I say it isn't getting warmer? because I can't seem to find it....

Edited by coldie
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1 minute ago, coldie said:

Not really I was just clearly stating that weather extremes are happening a lot more frequent whether it be HOT or cold.

Well it sounded like the typical argument used: it was record cold in 2018 so it can’t be getting warmer. Doesn’t seem like you were suggesting increasing frequency in your post IMO. But anyway.

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28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't forget though we hadn't hit solar min then - the analogues for winters before solar min were not that inspiring, the one's afterwards were better. depends when the actual solar min is, haven't looked yet at solar output, will do once we get summer out of the way.

And neither did we have the near-record ice-melt, that we have this year...And, I for one, would expect the disturbances to the Arctic Oscillation to be hundreds if not thousands of time more relevant than the minuscule effects of Solar Cycles? And analogues are proving to be about as useful as a chocolate teapot, IMO...?

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10 minutes ago, coldie said:

And saying winters are getting milder just because we reached 20c in february isn't ignorant?Anyway I was only stating that weather extremes are getting a lot more frequent whether it be HOT or cold as I mentioned in one of my previous comments.

we all know winters are getting milder, not because of a 20 degrees in Feb!

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And neither did we have the near-record ice-melt, that we have this year...And, I for one, would expect the disturbances to the Arctic Oscillation to be hundreds if not thousands of time more relevant than the minuscule effects of Solar Cycles? And analogues are proving to be about as useful as a chocolate teapot, IMO...?

The two are linked - its indisputable fact - a -AO has a pretty strong correlation with post solar min winters, as it happens usually more so with the second winter after solar min to be fair.

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34.3c, close to the higher end of the model forecasts today, both ICON and GFS were way too low.

Adds credence to a record tomorrow as well

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21 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

562A30CB-4A1A-4472-9E29-76E6474BD1F8.thumb.jpeg.526bba7d0d4ba093c7028dbd6ca25ce5.jpeg

20 miles north east from here just out in Essex.

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Re: whether summers are getting hotter - by my calculations:

For the past 10 years (2009-2018)
Mean annual max CET = 29.0C
Mean summer CET = 15.9C

Previous 10 years (1999-2008)
Mean annual max CET = 29.3C
Mean summer CET = 16.1C

Decade before that (1989-1998)
Mean annual max CET = 28.9C
Mean summer CET = 16.0C

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