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SunnyDazee

Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

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36 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

AGW delivers warmer uppers, it can’t really change the lapse rate or rate of surface heating.

The difference between the efficiency of cyclonic vs anti-cyclonic is nicely shown by the poster above though.

Right now xcpressure has pressure of 1019mb with an anti-cyclonic flow, uppers of 18C are forecast to deliver 34C (possibly higher) even with the warm spell only being in its second day. So that’s a 16C+ lapse rate (May end up higher).

Met on Thursday are forecasting 38C with uppers of 23C, cyclonic flow and pressure about 5C lower so that’s 15C despite 4 days of heat.

There are more extreme examples such as 1990 with a anti-cyclonic 1021-1024mb 20C lapse rate as the culmination of a 5 day spell.

 

 

I wouldn’t worry about cyclonic/anticyclonic flow too much...it’s going to be a bake. As the Met explained it will only take small solar input to reach 33c on Thursday as the air aloft is so warm with no cold undercut, the rest of the day can be spent slowly creeping up beyond 33c.

Desert regions easily get 50c+ with thermal low pressure systems. Obviously 850s are higher etc.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Soory not true

Temperatures are rounded to the nearest 'odd' full degree, this 28.5 C=29 C and 29.5 C=29C in whole numbers.

There have to be rules otherwise chaos would occur!

 

That's what I meant by rounding it up, John. 28.5 is not 29, it's 28.5 and 29.5 is not 29, it's 29.5.

Edited by Mapantz

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Soory not true

Temperatures are rounded to the nearest 'odd' full degree, this 28.5 C=29 C and 29.5 C=29C in whole numbers.

There have to be rules otherwise chaos would occur!

 

Interesting - why don't they just use standard rounding to zero dp.

Edited by ptow

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I absolutely love the British weather, in mid June some folk were saying that summer would never arrive this year, and look now, we may be about to break the all time temp record!

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Can't believe what I am reading. Following events from a distance with a lot of interest. I'll also add the words mild alarm.  

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7 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

I absolutely love the British weather, in mid June some folk were saying that summer would never arrive this year, and look now, we may be about to break the all time temp record!

Absolutely - stuff like that does my head in to be honest! It’s the same as writing winter off in December because it’s mild and no cold is showing. Granted we are way more likely to see summer heat than winter cold, but in the UK you should never write a season off until it is finished, as you never know what is on the horizon, however bad things are at the time. Early June seems a distant memory now.

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Northolt leading the way with 33 C currently. DP 15 degrees. So not as humid as it could be in the capital, lucky we don't have 20+ DPs.

 

 

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Highly recommend watching today’s Met Office live video. At 17mins in they have the deputy chief forecaster in to talk about the heatwave, comparing it with July 2015, August 2003 and how little solar energy will be needed on Thursday for the SE to reach 36.5c, so records likely to be broken. 

 

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Jersey showing 34c now, Heathrow and Northolt 33c....Thursday is going to be interesting to say the least. 

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58 minutes ago, ptow said:

Interesting - why don't they just use standard rounding to zero dp.

A WMO (World Met Organisation) ruling so that everyone/every country does the same. Like I suggested there has to a rule. For the nearest to 2 figure whole number then as I quoted above.

Another ruling is with pressure, 1019.5 mb for instance is 1019 to the whole number with 1020.5 being 1020. For safety of aircraft pressure is always rounded down.

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How come our record temp is not 39°C then?

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stunningly beautiful day today.. 30c, humidity not too high, gentle breeze... the perfect summers day!  🙂

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

A WMO (World Met Organisation) ruling so that everyone/every country does the same. Like I suggested there has to a rule. For the nearest to 2 figure whole number then as I quoted above.

Another ruling is with pressure, 1019.5 mb for instance is 1019 to the whole number with 1020.5 being 1020. For safety of aircraft pressure is always rounded down.

Wouldn't a more scientific and accurate way be to just format to 1 or even 2 decimal places

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

How come our record temp is not 39°C then?

Don't ask me ask UK Met?

I would imagine as when it is a record then the 'actual' value to one decimal place is what is recorded for the records sheet?

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wouldn't a more scientific and accurate way be to just format to 1 or even 2 decimal places

Again why not address either UK Met or WMO, many years ago and still to this day met data is/was exchanged by teleprinter codes, see what I mean by logging into UK Met web and asking for SYNOP code.

tara

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Max here looks to be 32.5 C=33C !

Also my highest since not sure when as the highest last year was 32.3 C early July

 

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2 hours ago, danm said:

Highly recommend watching today’s Met Office live video. At 17mins in they have the deputy chief forecaster in to talk about the heatwave, comparing it with July 2015, August 2003 and how little solar energy will be needed on Thursday for the SE to reach 36.5c, so records likely to be broken. 

 

Interesting point regarding the effect of pressure on high UK temperatures.

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10 minutes ago, cheese said:

30.3C in Leeds

Where in Leeds, Cheese? Certainly feels like it. Do you think our record could go Thursday? MO forecasting 33c. The record is 34.4 I think

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Where in Leeds, Cheese? Certainly feels like it. Do you think our record could go Thursday? MO forecasting 33c. The record is 34.4 I think

It’s the weather station at Leeds uni.

I think it’s possible yes. UKV shows 35C, and 36C isn’t far away. This is our best chance to break the record since it was set in 1990.

Edited by cheese

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6 minutes ago, cheese said:

It’s the weather station at Leeds uni.

I think it’s possible yes. UKV shows 35C, and 36C isn’t far away. This is our best chance to break the record since it was set in 1990.

Ok thanks 

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Maxed out at 33 degrees in NW London today - bang on forecast. Although I thought it’d go a degree or 2 higher.

 

We’ve reached the level where the wind feels like a hairdryer. Beautiful day!

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They probably don't round temps up as it could look a bit odd to show a 28.5C rounded to a spot temp of 29C below the 29C isotherm on heat maps.

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