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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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10 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

 BBC and MO both went for 29 for London and parts of the SE in their graphics, and then mentioned high likelihood of 30 degrees in broadcasts. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, I want heat as much as the next person but I just thought it’s a bit misleading to say the models underdone temps as it suggests the following days will be hotter than forecast. 

The official maximum was 30.5C yesterday. Bang within the expected range. Notably a degree higher than ARPEGE and AROME, and 2.5C higher than ECM. Will they be this much too low on Thursday? 

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All regions in England are now under a heatwave alert with 4 regions at level 3

Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 08:45 on Tue 23 Jul 2019

There is a 90 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Friday in parts of England.

A very warm week for much of the country with humid days and warm nights. Temperatures will be highest in the east or southeast of England. A band of rain or thunderstorms, expected to push slowly eastwards from Thursday onwards, with fresher conditions developing behind. The progress of the cooler conditions is likely to be slow and erratic, with the extreme southeast of the country likely to hold onto the hot conditions into Friday evening.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

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32 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

NW London catching up to EA now, approaching 26 degrees at 10am. Max temps in 6 hours will be interesting. ?

Yes 26c now widely across the region, as of 10.20am

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2 hours ago, kold weather said:

Looks like Thursdays 850hpa temps will be a solid 1-2c higher than they were on 10th August 2003, 20+ looks more widespread as well.

So that again would give a ballpark Max of 39-40c in theory.

While I think we may well take the July record I’m more dubious of the all time record.

In 2003 we had a col leaning anti-cyclonic with 1015-1020mb pressure, on Thursday we have a cyclonic 1010-1015mb flow meaning less efficient heat transfer and lower lapse rates imo.

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54 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While I think we may well take the July record I’m more dubious of the all time record.

In 2003 we had a col leaning anti-cyclonic with 1015-1020mb pressure, on Thursday we have a cyclonic 1010-1015mb flow meaning less efficient heat transfer and lower lapse rates imo.

Will that be counterbalanced by a further 15 years of AGW, though?

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7 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Heathrow leading the way with 30 degrees at noon. 34 peak later?

 

Interestingly the dew point is "only" 15 degrees, so not feeling that humid IMO. 

Yep Heathrow at 30c before midday. Could squeeze a 35c by late afternoon. 

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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Will that be counterbalanced by a further 15 years of AGW, though?

AGW delivers warmer uppers, it can’t really change the lapse rate or rate of surface heating.

The difference between the efficiency of cyclonic vs anti-cyclonic is nicely shown by the poster above though.

Right now xcpressure has pressure of 1019mb with an anti-cyclonic flow, uppers of 18C are forecast to deliver 34C (possibly higher) even with the warm spell only being in its second day. So that’s a 16C+ lapse rate (May end up higher).

Met on Thursday are forecasting 38C with uppers of 23C, cyclonic flow and pressure about 5C lower so that’s 15C despite 4 days of heat.

There are more extreme examples such as 1990 with a anti-cyclonic 1021-1024mb 20C lapse rate as the culmination of a 5 day spell.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

^ They always round it up. A pet hate of mine.

Soory not true

Temperatures are rounded to the nearest 'odd' full degree, this 28.5 C=29 C and 29.5 C=29C in whole numbers.

There have to be rules otherwise chaos would occur!

 

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Just now, johnholmes said:

Sorry not true

Temperatures are rounded to the nearest 'odd' full degree, this 28.5 C=29 C and 29.5 C=29C in whole numbers.

There have to be rules otherwise chaos would occur!

 

 

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