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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Who is doing their forecast graphics now? Piers Corbyn? Talk about sensationalistic. Wild fire, drought concerns, severe thunderstorms. 

Two other things to comment on. 

One, I hate that term "mild" used during summer. 

Two, how can most of Italy be described as seasonable and just to the north (including northern Italy) be described as heatwaves? What weather set-up could cause this? 

Upper Trough based around the Agean would pump warm and wet into Greece with cooler air over Italy. To its north west an upper high. 

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Accuweather....perhaps the wet thing for Northern Scotland extended all over the UK is more accurate? They predicted a warm spring...granted April and pockets of March were, but no-no. 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Who is doing their forecast graphics now? Piers Corbyn? Talk about sensationalistic. Wild fire, drought concerns, severe thunderstorms. 

Two other things to comment on. 

One, I hate that term "mild" used during summer. 

Two, how can most of Italy be described as seasonable and just to the north (including northern Italy) be described as heatwaves? What weather set-up could cause this? 

It's not that sensationalist to be fair. Look at the fires we had last Summer & this is the UK not California or Spain. We had to close the windows here a few miles away as the smoke stunk & had to use my inhaler more than usual. It's actually a good job the fires were mostly higher than where homes are built. But I'm concerned that if we do get another dry hot Summer the fires on the moors could be even worse than last year & move further down slope to effect Saddleworth homes where some of my family live. People need to be heavily find if caught taking bbq's on the moors too. There's no real deterant at the moment. 

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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Posted (edited)

Moorland fires were quite common in the late 70s. We did not have throw-away barbecues back then. It's hardly suprising we are getting more summer fires if we can't stop idiots from using incendiary cooking devices directly on top of peat! They need localised bans and prosecutions of offenders. They scar grass in parks all over and dirty beach sand so there should be a nationwide ban on ground contact full stop.

Edited by Aleman

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Its another pleasant day here. Its far from cold by any means partly cloudy skies.I actually don't think this May as been that bad what so-ever.

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It’s only become decent in recent days. Last week was sunny and clear, but before that the weather was cool and cloudy for long periods. 

Hopefully we have seen an end of that until late September. 

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What do you expect an entire month to be nice in the UK? It doesn't work that way. Not even in the sub tropical south.

I give a reprisal of the weather and its been ok.. not amazing. But this is the  UK. May coulda been a lot worse.. and often is.

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17 hours ago, nn2013 said:

Accuweather....perhaps the wet thing for Northern Scotland extended all over the UK is more accurate? They predicted a warm spring...granted April and pockets of March were, but no-no. 

Temperatures were over 1C above average for both March and April.

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23 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Temperatures were over 1C above average for both March and April.

When using the 61-90 averages.. I wasn’t around during that time, but during my lifetime so far this has definitely been a chillier than normal spring apart from a couple warmer spells, constant northern blocking...

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34 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Temperatures were over 1C above average for both March and April.

They could not predict a pint in a pub. None of ofthem.Including the publicly funded Met Office. Useless and perhaps more useless than 10 years ago. 

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39 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

They could not predict a pint in a pub. None of ofthem.Including the publicly funded Met Office. Useless and perhaps more useless than 10 years ago. 

Any written evidence of that?

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43 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

They could not predict a pint in a pub. None of ofthem.Including the publicly funded Met Office. Useless and perhaps more useless than 10 years ago. 

You must give them some credence, because the other day you posted on the model forum to say how bad the met office update is and how a large chunk of summer will be over come mid June!! 

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Posted (edited)

This time last week and over the weekend they were predicting a wet and windy Bank Holiday weekend, now its forecasting just scattered outbreaks of rain... in the North. Look, its always going to be fairly miserable weatherwise north of the Watford gap anyway so I suppose they are accurate when they say it's going to be pretty awful up there. I was talking about down here where the vast majority live. 

 

Edited by Wimbledon88

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It is looking likely to be fairly windy across the north with some rain (wet), so the forecast last week wasn’t exactly a mile off considering it was about 10 days off, the only forecasts that go wrong are the ones in a months advance or more...

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3 hours ago, Freeze said:

When using the 61-90 averages.. I wasn’t around during that time, but during my lifetime so far this has definitely been a chillier than normal spring apart from a couple warmer spells, constant northern blocking...

"Normal" is an already modified climate.  The weather has still been milder than normal.

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45 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

"Normal" is an already modified climate.  The weather has still been milder than normal.

If that’s the case then what is normal? Normal is the 30 year trend... the 30 year trend will always alter whether it be global warming or not, there’s always going to be changes in the averages over years... I still don’t understand why we use an average of a time that’s been and gone years and years ago...

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I don't trust the 1961-1990 mean. Too much data is pre-satellite and is adjusted for the likes of changing thermometers from mercury and alcohol to electronic probes, amongst a host of other things. Plus, how do you accurately measure vast ocean variations without satellites? I prefer the 1981-2010 mean which is all within satellite measurement. I might be wrong but it feels like more reports are using the old one as a reference for some reason. To my mind it is sloppy to use one which might be inferior and I take it with a pich of salt.

 

Here's some more on this week's turbulent US weather which might be headed our way - heatwave, floods, tornadoes and snow:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/48370090

 

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18 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

You must give them some credence, because the other day you posted on the model forum to say how bad the met office update is and how a large chunk of summer will be over come mid June!! 

My point is illustrated perfectly below. 

It's the Met Office forecast issued this day last week. As anyone can see, it's inaccurate in the extreme. That's my point. The early part of the week was supposed to be unsettled and showery. 

Best week of the summer so far.

 

Thursday 23 May - Saturday 1 June

Thursday sees a gradual return to more unsettled conditions. Early rain in the north will clear leaving a few showers. Elsewhere after a mostly dry morning with sunny spells, strengthening winds will spread cloud and rain northeastwards across many west and southwestern parts of England and Wales. This more changeable weather is expected to continue into the Bank Holiday weekend with all parts seeing rain or showers at times, although by Monday the southwest should see some drier and brighter, more settled conditions. Through the rest of the period, confidence is low, but it is probable that the weather will change only slowly, with drier more settled spells occasionally interspersed by wetter, more unsettled weather. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

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I get where your coming from, and yes the met office updates are a little out of zinc! And tbh they have been since last winter, and I'm also noticing how they are covering all bases and pointing out weak signals moving forward in there forecasts! This is why I say it's pointless to suggest which way the summer will go at present, wether it be cool and unsettled, or warm and settled. Obviously there are some bigger drivers at work which are causing alot of changes to our weather at present. But reading Tamara's posts will also show there is a lot going on in the background. It's certainly not straight forward this forecasting larkee... Tbh it's a nightmare beyond a week at the best of times. 

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Doesn't look like next week's 'dire' weather'll be all that 'dire', after all?

image.thumb.png.f5bc436a0383f236f563db7d601cf0d5.pngimage.thumb.png.0e3736bfd2d51d34f9196eae21f03625.png 

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23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Doesn't look like next week's 'dire' weather'll be all that 'dire', after all?

image.thumb.png.f5bc436a0383f236f563db7d601cf0d5.pngimage.thumb.png.0e3736bfd2d51d34f9196eae21f03625.png 

Let me have a quick guess - they’ll forecast rain or showers for all 5 weekdays next week - and it won’t rain once?

This has been happening all month 😞

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Into something good? image.thumb.png.f32a8fe82ac98d4395a515d45ae8a38d.pngimage.thumb.png.2ffcb87f8b1278d74940a945369b9d7d.png                      

                                                             image.png.60685f46f44c2ce59cbae88dc6c3566a.png

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PlEnTy Of WaRm SuNsHiNe ToDaY is the Met Office's summary for today's weather for my region.  Is that really how a professional forecasting body should word things?  I understand it's aimed at the general public, but really?  Why not use something more neutral like "it'll be a mostly sunny day today"?

 

How many times do I need to remind people - not everyone likes the damn sun.  

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1 minute ago, Sir Mim said:

PlEnTy Of WaRm SuNsHiNe ToDaY is the Met Office's summary for today's weather for my region.  Is that really how a professional forecasting body should word things?  I understand it's aimed at the general public, but really?  Why not use something more neutral like "it'll be a mostly sunny day today"?

 

How many times do I need to remind people - not everyone likes the damn sun.  

What’s wrong with the description ‘plenty of warm sunshine’? Entirely accurate as it’s a) sunny and b) feels warm. 

Are you honestly complaining about too much sunshine in the UK? Must be a wind up, surely?!

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18 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

What’s wrong with the description ‘plenty of warm sunshine’? Entirely accurate as it’s a) sunny and b) feels warm. 

Are you honestly complaining about too much sunshine in the UK? Must be a wind up, surely?!

 

No, I hate the sun and warm/hot weather in general.

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