Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[danm]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The writing has been on the wall since May. That cold pool over the Barents Sea and N Atlantic just hasn’t shifted, along with those Greenland heights. 

Ive also been watching this next warm spell slowly eroding away into what will look like another thunderless breakdown and a sudden chill from the north. If that isn’t dire, I don’t know what is. The patterns just aren’t sitting right with us this year. Any change we will likely see, is into August in my opinion. 

What next warm spell? It’s forecast to be average this week, with it briefly turning warmer than average (up to 26c/27c in the S/SE) on Thursday. 

As it happens, “average” in early July isn’t all that bad, depending on where you live. 22c-24c and sunny will do most people fine in the absence of a heatwave. Far better than the first two thirds of June.  

[DAVID SNOW]

33 minutes ago, Don said:

And I was only answering your question.  I wasn’t just talking about exceptional heat, although as Mattwolves said, last summer was pretty exceptional, even if we didn’t break all time records.  Anyway, lets please leave it at that.  

Happy to do so Don, after all we have been members for quite some time.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

What next warm spell? It’s forecast to be average this week, with it briefly turning warmer than average (up to 26c/27c in the S/SE) on Thursday. 

As it happens, “average” in early July isn’t all that bad, depending on where you live. 22c-24c and sunny will do most people fine in the absence of a heatwave. Far better than the first two thirds of June.  

Two days ago, we saw modelling of the Azores high manage to get to the east of us, and therefore draw up some proper warmth, and some convective weather.

That has now all but vanished, and we are now seeing a low from the north cut down the North Sea and bringing some very unwelcome northerlies, as per the 12z GFS output. 

Plus the forecasts for me over these next few days do not give me heights of 26/27c. A very mediocre 19-21c is forecast for my location, and I’m in the Northern region of the SE. 

In a nutshell, it’s been a horrendous summer and doesn’t look like getting all that much better in the foreseeable, unless my view on model observation is in need of challenging. 

 

[danm]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Two days ago, we saw modelling of the Azores high manage to get to the east of us, and therefore draw up some proper warmth, and some convective weather.

That has now all but vanished, and we are now seeing a low from the north cut down the North Sea and bringing some very unwelcome northerlies, as per the 12z GFS output. 

Plus the forecasts for me over these next few days do not give me heights of 26/27c. A very mediocre 19-21c is forecast for my location, and I’m in the Northern region of the SE. 

In a nutshell, it’s been a horrendous summer and doesn’t look like getting all that much better in the foreseeable, unless my view on model observation is in need of challenging. 

 

Not sure what output you’ve been looking at. Most of the modelling over the last 4/5 days has shown the Azores high ridging in bringing settled weather with sunny spells and near average temperatures, or possibly slightly above average in favoured southern locations. That’s exactly what we have this week. 

FYI - your location, Peterborough, is forecast to get to 23c on Thursday.

[Stabilo19]

11 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Two days ago, we saw modelling of the Azores high manage to get to the east of us, and therefore draw up some proper warmth, and some convective weather.

That has now all but vanished, and we are now seeing a low from the north cut down the North Sea and bringing some very unwelcome northerlies, as per the 12z GFS output. 

Plus the forecasts for me over these next few days do not give me heights of 26/27c. A very mediocre 19-21c is forecast for my location, and I’m in the Northern region of the SE. 

In a nutshell, it’s been a horrendous summer and doesn’t look like getting all that much better in the foreseeable, unless my view on model observation is in need of challenging. 

 

The models were not showing "proper warmth" coming up, just a settled spell with temps a bit above average.

A "mediocore 21 degrees" is the average high for Peterborough during early July.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

The models were not showing "proper warmth" coming up, just a settled spell with temps a bit above average.

A "mediocore 21 degrees" is the average high for Peterborough during early July.

Exactly. Mediocre being a synonym for average. Hardly what I would call ‘good’! 

Ive came here to vent some frustration, as it’s the ‘moans’ thread. I can’t exactly post what most others are thinking on the MOD thread. 

I can’t think of a single year where I have not seen at least one half decent storm before July. Then 2019 came along! 

[Freeze]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Exactly. Mediocre being a synonym for average. Hardly what I would call ‘good’! 

Ive came here to vent some frustration, as it’s the ‘moans’ thread. I can’t exactly post what most others are thinking on the MOD thread. 

I can’t think of a single year where I have not seen at least one half decent storm before July. Then 2019 came along! 

Don’t let last summer fool you into thinking all summers should be like that, your expectations of summer are like those in the med...

[Stabilo19]

Early summer has been OK with quite a few warm days and one v. hot day down here. 

We've still got 3 months of potential heat and storms to come so all still to play for.

[Big daddy 49]

What a miserable bunch!.First day of July and it's been written off already by some!.We have all July and August yet.Seriously if you can tell the exact weather FOUR weeks in advance,your geniuses!.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes a trend may be developing here, a return to the base state we were in during much of May and a significant part of June.. southerly tracking jet, and high pressure to the north - no coincidence that we are now in a solar minima..

Yes Damien, I think it's now 15 or so days with no sun spots.. Meaning a distinct lack of sun spot activity for over 50%of days so far this year. And I think by 2020 the main star would be heading into solar minimum. Just to think from 1645 to 1715 sunspots we're extremely rare, and we all no what the resultant outcome was then. This kind of a set up could lead to a 1 maybe 2 degree drop in global temperatures... Doesn't seem a lot but this could come with devastating consequences. Is this the reason for our episode of HLB in May and early June!! It's possible, the jet stream is certainly meandering, I no its summer and I'm still hoping for some more decent wether yet, but this coming winter could prove to be very interesting, if these episodes of HLB keep intensifying then boom, we could be staring down the barrel of one hell of a cold snap. Apperantly a weather metric that tells us how the top of earths atmosphere is responding to solar activity, is telling us that it's roughly 10 times cooler than it was during the record setting solar max of 1957/58..And that source is from the space agency NASA. I hope it doesn't kill our summer just yet, but boy it would be fun if it brought the winter some of us crave.... 1947.....anyone....

[weatherguru14]

No ones writing anything off. If you care tell me how its gonna get any warmer from the position we are in now, I would like to know..

And secondly its a lovely balmy evening outside. Its just "cool"/

[cheese]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Exactly. Mediocre being a synonym for average. Hardly what I would call ‘good’! 

Ive came here to vent some frustration, as it’s the ‘moans’ thread. I can’t exactly post what most others are thinking on the MOD thread. 

I can’t think of a single year where I have not seen at least one half decent storm before July. Then 2019 came along! 

Just two days of thunder this year. It really has been atrocious. Bar the record warmth of late February, this year has been almost totally devoid of interest, on par with 2014 imo. It’s years like this that really stretch your patience as a weather enthusiast and make you think ‘What’s the bloody point?’. Might as well take up knitting instead.

Edited July 1, 2019 by cheese

[ChezWeather]

I'm clutching at straws for July, the only positive seems to be the outlook from Exeter 

Off to the SW on hols from the 12th so the weather will really make or break that week for me 

[simshady]

It's been a very nice day here today. 17c and a 'howling' wind. Not bad at all for the first day of July.

[Northwest NI]

41 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Damien, I think it's now 15 or so days with no sun spots.. Meaning a distinct lack of sun spot activity for over 50%of days so far this year. And I think by 2020 the main star would be heading into solar minimum. Just to think from 1645 to 1715 sunspots we're extremely rare, and we all no what the resultant outcome was then. This kind of a set up could lead to a 1 maybe 2 degree drop in global temperatures... Doesn't seem a lot but this could come with devastating consequences. Is this the reason for our episode of HLB in May and early June!! It's possible, the jet stream is certainly meandering, I no its summer and I'm still hoping for some more decent wether yet, but this coming winter could prove to be very interesting, if these episodes of HLB keep intensifying then boom, we could be staring down the barrel of one hell of a cold snap. Apperantly a weather metric that tells us how the top of earths atmosphere is responding to solar activity, is telling us that it's roughly 10 times cooler than it was during the record setting solar max of 1957/58..And that source is from the space agency NASA. I hope it doesn't kill our summer just yet, but boy it would be fun if it brought the winter some of us crave.... 1947.....anyone....

Is this a first? Winter getting ramped on 1st July

[Derecho]

51 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Damien, I think it's now 15 or so days with no sun spots.. Meaning a distinct lack of sun spot activity for over 50%of days so far this year. And I think by 2020 the main star would be heading into solar minimum. Just to think from 1645 to 1715 sunspots we're extremely rare, and we all no what the resultant outcome was then. This kind of a set up could lead to a 1 maybe 2 degree drop in global temperatures... Doesn't seem a lot but this could come with devastating consequences. Is this the reason for our episode of HLB in May and early June!! It's possible, the jet stream is certainly meandering, I no its summer and I'm still hoping for some more decent wether yet, but this coming winter could prove to be very interesting, if these episodes of HLB keep intensifying then boom, we could be staring down the barrel of one hell of a cold snap. Apperantly a weather metric that tells us how the top of earths atmosphere is responding to solar activity, is telling us that it's roughly 10 times cooler than it was during the record setting solar max of 1957/58..And that source is from the space agency NASA. I hope it doesn't kill our summer just yet, but boy it would be fun if it brought the winter some of us crave.... 1947.....anyone....

I don't see any evidence for such a dramatic drop in global temperatures? That would represent an impact similar to the Mount Tambora eruption from 1815. There is evidence from the literature that low solar activity slightly increases the chances of notably cold winters (Lockwood et al 2010) but that is it. There was numerous causes of the 'little ice age' such as volcanic eruptions ( a huge volcanic eruption is said to have triggered it) and changes in ocean circulation. 

Read more about it here, at the most there was modest drops in temperature over the northern hemisphere which are dwarfed by increases in global temperature in recent decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

If solar activity is so influential then warming since 1985 would be much weaker but we all know that is not the case. Even in the North Atlantic low solar activity is in no way a simple predictor of a negative NAO. The early 1910s saw barely any sunspots yet they were dominated by positive NAO winters. There are so many other factors at play... did you read this daily express article? don't get sucked in by it. We know what their record is when it comes to forecasting weather and its inherent climate denialism bias that is deliberately misleading people.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1114503/weather-forecast-long-range-nasa-noaa-news-solar-minimum-space-weather

The weather metric that you refer to for the upper atmosphere is the Thermosphere Climate Index, it has no effect here.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/yes-the-sun-is-less-active-no-youre-not-likely-to-notice

I think people are getting way too carried away with this negative NAO and who is to say it will carry on through winter. I remember everyone was getting hyped up about the blocking we saw during Autumn 2016 (another period with much below average sea ice extent over the arctic in our warming climate) but look how that turned out the following winter.

and given the 'background signals' last winter people should know better....

Back on the model output the 18z GFS shows some decent northern blocking but this quickly wanes and everything looks rather average. An uneventful run really.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[weatherguru14]

again just seeing the headlines for the weather online. and AGAIN. what heatwave did we have? am lost.

Wednesday looks ok at the MOMENT. depends if the wind drops..

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This is what we have to look forward to. I couldn’t draw a worse chart for summer if I tried! 

Reminds me very much of 2011. Absolutely no exciting weather at all, with cool inbuoyant northerlies/northwesterlies. 

[Azazel]

7 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Exactly. Mediocre being a synonym for average. Hardly what I would call ‘good’! 

Ive came here to vent some frustration, as it’s the ‘moans’ thread. I can’t exactly post what most others are thinking on the MOD thread. 

I can’t think of a single year where I have not seen at least one half decent storm before July. Then 2019 came along! 

Careful, you’ll draw unwanted attention for not thinking this summer has been absolutely fantastic.

On the convection front, I agree - which further compounds the misery. Not only has it decent weather been a little hard to come by, it’s been completely and utterly devoid of any convective elements whatsoever in my neck of the woods.

Edited July 2, 2019 by Azazel

[Azazel]

7 hours ago, Freeze said:

Don’t let last summer fool you into thinking all summers should be like that, your expectations of summer are like those in the med...

Not one single person in this thread thinks all summers in the U.K. should be like last summer which was of course, a very special one. I wish they could be though (if there was more convection) - would probably send a few in here over the edge though.

[danm]

7 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

This is what we have to look forward to. I couldn’t draw a worse chart for summer if I tried! 

Reminds me very much of 2011. Absolutely no exciting weather at all, with cool inbuoyant northerlies/northwesterlies. 

I’m not sure what you’re expecting? We live in a temperate maritime climate. The weather we have at the moment is bog standard summer fayre - low to mid 20s in the south, high teens to low 20’s further north. Sunny weather interspersed with some showers from time to time, particularly the further NW you go. We don’t have a continental climate with regular heatwaves and thunderstorms. 

Edited July 2, 2019 by danm

[markyo]

Near enough what i would call a perfect summers morning,15c nice breeze. July is looking much the same,fingers crossed it stays that way,it makes life is so much better than last year.

[Nick L]

I know I missed a dreadful couple of weeks in June when I was in the states, but I've been back 10 days and it's been gorgeous aside from Saturday which was just unpleasant.

[Earthshine]

Not sure where some people are getting the idea of global cooling from?  Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in Earth's atmosphere is by far the greatest driving factor in terms of Earth's surface temperature right now.  We are already seeing the impacts of this with the dangerous heatwave that recently affected continental Europe which was made more intense as a consequence of mean temperatures being generally higher now than during pre-industrial times.

Regardless, for the UK this first week of July is looking perfect for pretty much everyone.  Sunshine, warmth and just generally pleasant summer weather to enjoy.

[MP-R]

59 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I know I missed a dreadful couple of weeks in June when I was in the states, but I've been back 10 days and it's been gorgeous aside from Saturday which was just unpleasant.

I wish I’d been away in the first half of June. Indeed from the 20th it has been better, at least down here.

Pleasant today after a cool night.