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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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44 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Why is August the weakest summer month lately? If it wasn't for the soggy second half last year, it could have been an epic summer (I'm not going to forget it as I had a mini flood in my flat!).

I can't see a repeat of last year. Could either be average i.e something like 2014 / 2016 or as it's been overdue something like 2011 / 2012. I wouldn't even rule out a 2007 repeat even. 

I think May is still too early to indicate whether it’s warm and sunny, or more unsettled summer to come. I think early June is usually a good indication of how it pans out. If June continues to be unsettled or on the cool side, I can see another 2011, 2017, but like others have said, something like 2014 wouldn’t be too bad. 

August will be a very poor one this year I think, with very limited warm to hot spells. Maybe something like 1987, with just a few hot days and thunderstorms.

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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3 hours ago, reef said:

August has never been a reliably warm month. There have only in fact been 19 Augusts with a CET of above 17.5C back to 1659. It's never been a very sunny month either.

I think perceptions are clouded by the unusual number of better than average Augusts in the 1990s and early 2000s.

That’s an amazing statistic. 

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14 hours ago, reef said:

August has never been a reliably warm month. There have only in fact been 19 Augusts with a CET of above 17.5C back to 1659. It's never been a very sunny month either.

I think perceptions are clouded by the unusual number of better than average Augusts in the 1990s and early 2000s.

One factor has to be taking into consideration is that large +ve anomalies for summer months is not that easy as might seem.

For argument sake, if we just look at the 1961-90 averages, June 1846 has the largest +ve anomaly for a summer month with 4.1C and the hottest June on record. December 2010, the 2nd coldest December on record had an anomaly of -5.3C against its 1961-90 average.

July 2006 was only +3.6 or +3.7C above its 1961-90 average and that is numerical the hottest month of them all. 

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Interesting thread, albeit slight leaning toward unsubstantiated downbeat predictions (as many moans/ramps threads do lol), but some very interesting stats!

Personally, I'll be hoping for either a warmer or much sunnier summer with some shorter, wetter interludes, that hopefully lasts through and past august this year.
I was late to the vegetable sowing this year (recovery from major surgery) so I could do with the growing season extending a bit longer than the average to make up for later sowings/planting out.
Allotment and garden have required a lot of watering past month already this year (central southern england) so actually quite glad for the coming showery rain next few days; and looking slightly more probable there will be a settled and somewhat warmer spell come next week (here at least) which should give all the plants a boost!
 

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3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

It depends on how bad the summer has been. Summers 2007 and 2012 it was the "best", 2006 and 2018, it has been the "worst"

 

Even 2007 and 12 had miserable days during those Augusts. 2007 I think was the worst summer ever in recent times. 

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Some really welcome rain for the pennies today,farmers and wildlife will be much relived. To see the hills in such a dry state at this time of year is worrying to say the least,hopefully another spell of good totals by the end of the month.

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Another pretty revolting day in this rather uninspiring spring.

Hopefully we're using up our quota of s**t weather and summer will sort itself out. Seeing my road underwater and endless grey skies at this time of year is worrying to say the least.

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2 hours ago, Azazel said:

Another pretty revolting day in this rather uninspiring spring.

Hopefully we're using up our quota of s**t weather and summer will sort itself out. Seeing my road underwater and endless grey skies at this time of year is worrying to say the least.

Yes it is. I can handle a miserable early to mid May, but if this continues into June, it does become depressing. 

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The northern hemisphere doesn't tend to settle into its summer base state until around the summer solstice. A southerly tracking jet in late June is not usually a good omen for the rest of the summer in this respect, neither is persistant northern blocking. By Late June, the atlantic tends to stir and how it behaves is crucial in this sense.

Years when a major step change from cool and unsettled to warm and settled has taken place in late June include 1991, 1995, 2013 - heralding much better fayre in July and in the case of 1991 and 1995 August, Aug 2013 wasn't that bad either..

 

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Garbage weather today, I am not an "anti rain" person either - I like rain, in showers and thunderstorms with mild or warm weather. Not all day drizzle with temperatures that would be more befitting of February in freakin' May. Hope this rubbish cold nonsense disappears and soon.

Edited by Thundershine
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5 hours ago, Thundershine said:

Garbage weather today, I am not an "anti rain" person either - I like rain, in showers and thunderstorms with mild or warm weather. Not all day drizzle with temperatures that would be more befitting of February in freakin' May. Hope this rubbish cold nonsense disappears and soon.

I'm anti rain, but again these last 2 days been worse than a so called 'named' storm, today looks like being wet all day, and tomorrow

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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The northern hemisphere doesn't tend to settle into its summer base state until around the summer solstice. A southerly tracking jet in late June is not usually a good omen for the rest of the summer in this respect, neither is persistant northern blocking. By Late June, the atlantic tends to stir and how it behaves is crucial in this sense.

Years when a major step change from cool and unsettled to warm and settled has taken place in late June include 1991, 1995, 2013 - heralding much better fayre in July and in the case of 1991 and 1995 August, Aug 2013 wasn't that bad either..

 

Yes I remember those summers taking time to get going. 1991 was very cold in June, and 95 had the same problem, but the hot weather arrived in mid June that year. June 1991 was cold throughout, before turning much warmer and thundery during July.

June 2013 was better, after the very cold May, and the summer was arguably the best one since 2006.

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7 hours ago, Thundershine said:

Garbage weather today, I am not an "anti rain" person either - I like rain, in showers and thunderstorms with mild or warm weather. Not all day drizzle with temperatures that would be more befitting of February in freakin' May. Hope this rubbish cold nonsense disappears and soon.

This is what happens when you get a very mild spell in late February. I had a feeling we would pay for it at some point.

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You're not alone. May so far has been absolutely gash in Central Europe. Currently 11C here and raining like there's no tomorrow. Trust this to happen after an almost-snowless February wasted on winds from Africa; had we received the current synoptics it would have been snowmageddon.

I was in Paris over the weekend and the weather was poor there too. Saturday genuinely felt cold, dodging frequent downpours and hail showers. Lovely city though.

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Right, models looking ghastly into June now.

 

Gonna log out for a few weeks, stop obsessing and hope the second-half of summer delivers something. Have a good May y'all!

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1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

You're not alone. May so far has been absolutely gash in Central Europe. Currently 11C here and raining like there's no tomorrow. Trust this to happen after an almost-snowless February wasted on winds from Africa; had we received the current synoptics it would have been snowmageddon.

I was in Paris over the weekend and the weather was poor there too. Saturday genuinely felt cold, dodging frequent downpours and hail showers. Lovely city though.

Prague has been the same, chilly with loads of rain. Much needed here, though. Hopefully June onwards will be far better. Don’t mind a bit of rain and I love heavy showers and thunderstorms, but the chill is most unwelcome.

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1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Right, models looking ghastly into June now.

 

Gonna log out for a few weeks, stop obsessing and hope the second-half of summer delivers something. Have a good May y'all!

It’s a 1980 summer coming up. That was one of the worst summers by the way. 

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In England for the first time this year and the weather in the Peak District is pretty uninspiring, showcasing the worst that this country has to offer - grey, drizzly and 6c. 

Edited by Harve
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2 hours ago, Harve said:

In England for the first time this year and the weather in the Peak District is pretty uninspiring, showcasing the worst that this country has to offer - grey, drizzly and 6c. 

I was in Buxton a couple of weeks ago, well a village named Bakewell to be precise, and it rained solid fri night until the early hours of sunday.

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4 hours ago, Azazel said:

Right, models looking ghastly into June now.

 

Gonna log out for a few weeks, stop obsessing and hope the second-half of summer delivers something. Have a good May y'all!

Me too, I'm like the coldies who go into hibernation in summer, but in reverse. I go into hibernation in summer when below average gunk slips into the woodwork and northern blockin patterns get established. I bet that no less do I forget about the weather, a sudden heatwave will appear out of nowhere. 

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back to a normal UK summer this year.. I don't know why some people expect summers like last year to be the norm. They ain't.

The jet stream last year meandered. This yeah so far. Its been to active. so the chance of any prolonged spell of settled weather is less likely.

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