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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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People expecting mid thirties, was and is very hopeful, so it may just break the 80F mark here (Wolves) on Friday/Saturday, but even then it's still 4 or 5 days away, but things can and do go pear shaped at very short notice, remember this is the UK.

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

Posted Images

In terms of heat, I get the feeling this might pan out similar to the 1st July 2015. So Friday might be our first 30c day (Probably Hampshire/Wiltshire way), then a proper hot day on Saturday with low to mid thirties across central/southern England before a cold front moves through overnight.

Before then, risk of thunderstorms today and tomorrow before easing away on Wednesday with the sunshine returning Thursday when we begin to lose that long draw North Sea wind.

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3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
2019 153 (up to 23rd June)
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180 

I'm thinking it could pass 2012 and 2008 by the end of next weekend? Seems like a bit of sunshine this weekend and warmer temps has had an impact already.

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I'm thinking it could pass 2012 and 2008 by the end of next weekend? Seems like a bit of sunshine this weekend and warmer temps has had an impact already.

It could do

Compared to last June, there was more sunshine during the last 6 days of June 2018 than the whole of this June so far with room to spare. 

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2 hours ago, Azazel said:

This must be one of the dullest Junes on record surely?

Yup terrible hopefully these next few days make up for it a little bit 

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2 hours ago, Azazel said:

This must be one of the dullest Junes on record surely?

Not as bad as June 2016. I've surpassed that total by quite a way.

Edited by Mapantz
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It seems a stronger/deeper undercut of cool air is modelled than sometimes occurs even with an easterly drift. Maybe also the higher 850's above this make the modified layer/inversion more 'robust' to the normal vertical mixing of the atmosphere that results in a more typical temperature profile?

I do remember a few examples of lower maxes than the 850's suggest due to modified air bring brought in from the North Sea (e.g. 11th-12th July 2013, I had a max of just 19.3C and 20.9C under uppers of 12C and 15C (although some of that came via onshore wind from the channel)).

A bit disappointing for the enthusiast.. it looked rather interesting with temps into the 30's and severe storm potential (Met Office thought so too), but it's evolved to be a few days of hazy mid level cloud as any storms will miss me, followed by unexceptional temps and no storm potential. 
Another example not to trust the models into the mid range.

I still expect temperatures are being under-done by a few degrees though, and Saturday could get widely into the 30's east of my location.. It will still be very warm and breezy down here for a couple days which is one of my favourite weather types for pleasantness. 

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Do these long range weather forecasting sites never learn though?.BBC saying how miserable July will be?.This warm muggy weather wasn’t predicted 10 days ago,so why do they persist in this nonsense of predicting weather weeks in advance?.Drives me nuts!.

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Met Office seem to think it’ll hit 29c/30c tomorrow in London, with 30c in the capital even on Wednesday and Thursday. Highest temperatures on Thursday will be further west in S Wales, W Country, SW England. Hotter again in the SE on Saturday before it turns cooler on Sunday. 

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1 hour ago, DR(S)NO said:

Never mind the chase for heat 

 

3FF1447D-B78E-422A-93CD-3D2C084343F5.png

yep some parts of N.America are as much as 15c below normal..been a cool and wet start to summer across most of the continent

ECN100-0.gif

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33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM looks the best of the lot tonight - 20c uppers still well across the SE by the middle of Saturday, giving a real chance of the June record. If we can’t beat it after a couple of hot and dry days with a direct southerly feed of record breaking warm air, then when can we?!

June of next year

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Just now, Gordon Webb said:

June of next year

??

Being serious though. I doubt we will see this sort of upper air temp potential again in June for a very long time.

If it doesn't come off, it's been very dissapointing to say the least. My gut instinct however is telling me that this is going to be one those events that is grossely underestimated by the models/temp forecasts.

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Just now, matty007 said:

??

Being serious though. I doubt we will see this sort of upper air temp potential again in June for a very long time.

If it doesn't come off, it's been very dissapointing to say the least. My gut instinct however is telling me that this is going to be one those events that is grossely underestimated by the models/temp forecasts.

Matty, if we keep getting serious builds of heat across the continent during the summer months, this scenario is likely to become much more frequent than some believe! 

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4 minutes ago, matty007 said:

??

Being serious though. I doubt we will see this sort of upper air temp potential again in June for a very long time.

If it doesn't come off, it's been very dissapointing to say the least. My gut instinct however is telling me that this is going to be one those events that is grossely underestimated by the models/temp forecasts.

Agreed, this event has the potential to be truly historic across France, and possibly the UK as well. Such uppers warrant a memorable spell, I think Friday/Saturday are being seriously underestimated by all the forecasts.

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4 minutes ago, 95 Degrees said:

Agreed, this event has the potential to be truly historic across France, and possibly the UK as well. Such uppers warrant a memorable spell, I think Friday/Saturday are being seriously underestimated by all the forecasts.

Hopefully we see at least 95 degrees ?

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6 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

Never mind the chase for heat 

 

3FF1447D-B78E-422A-93CD-3D2C084343F5.png

They had 2 feet of snow at Steamboat Springs, Colorado over the weekend - 20 inches on the 21st, and then a few inches after that. It sometimes snows there through the summer but settling is unusual. Reports say reservoirs are low because the higher than average snowpack has not melted as much as normal yet after the exceptionally cold spring.

 

Edited by Aleman
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5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

yep some parts of N.America are as much as 15c below normal..been a cool and wet start to summer across most of the continent

ECN100-0.gif

Yup North America is colder then normal at the moment as the below plot shows. Global temperatures still 0.56C above normal though.

image.thumb.png.1fd1aa41aeb649fb9939cd668a4f2f2d.png

June has certainly been a mixed bag with a meridional jet causing distinct positive and negative anomalies over latitudinal bands
image.thumb.png.f2f3af0b979941fa0efc1bdcb1436ccc.png
 

 

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