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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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23 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Quoted from MOD thread

For a lot of the population yes they’d prefer less intense heat of course but then again this forum isn’t most of the population but a forum for weather enthusiasts.  I think a large percentage here, me included, want to see the extremes out of pure interest in what it ends up like. 

Not that sunny and warm with low humidity is a bad option but of course but for me it’s ‘bring on the heat!’ Thunderstorms welcome too.

I might say different after a few days of heat and high humidity of course ?

I also love it blazing hot, but I also don’t mind a few ‘cooler’ days in low-mid 20s. Just like in winter when I prefer it to be freezing with blizzards, but I wouldn’t mind some cool crisp sunny days either.. not that we really get either of them in the first place.

Edited by CheesepuffScott
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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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31 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Quoted from MOD thread

For a lot of the population yes they’d prefer less intense heat of course but then again this forum isn’t most of the population but a forum for weather enthusiasts.  I think a large percentage here, me included, want to see the extremes out of pure interest in what it ends up like. 

Not that sunny and warm with low humidity is a bad option but of course but for me it’s ‘bring on the heat!’ Thunderstorms welcome too.

I might say different after a few days of heat and high humidity of course ?

That is a fair point. I am a weather enthusiast but high humidity doesn’t appeal. 

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3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

That is a fair point. I am a weather enthusiast but high humidity doesn’t appeal. 

The main reason I want it to happen is I like extremes but I don’t think I’d want it to hang around too long. However last years heat with low humidity I’d happily see hang around. 

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15 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Usual caveats apply but its interesting that all the gfs ens drop the temps back down to average for the start of July.

One of the reasons for this warm spell is that a westerly wind burst entered the western Pacific  around June 10th however easterlies are once again forecast to take over from about the 25th.

Allowing for a 10 day lag that does suggest 20th June-5th July.

 

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Who's said anything is 'nailed on', Rammie? And, surely, if the word 'should' can be applied to the weather, it 'should', if anything, be average?:oldgrin:

Yes, it should, if anything, be average, and it probably will be :). 

Can't remember who said nailed on, but it was definitely used in the mod thread yesterday, more than once I think. 

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25 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

 

One of the reasons for this warm spell is that a westerly wind burst entered the western Pacific  around June 10th however easterlies are once again forecast to take over from about the 25th.

Allowing for a 10 day lag that does suggest 20th June-5th July.

 

Thanks for that sb, will keep a check on the ENS over the coming days.

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i am jaffa cakesed, happens every friggin time. Now, it's storm downgrades. South-west only has a yellow warning left for Tuesday, but when you read the text, it's basically: elevated storms from France overnight, if you're lucky.. later during the day, only a small chance of further storms developing but most places will miss them.

if no risk of storms, i don't want the heat. I will jaffa cakes off to some place with A/C until this crap is over

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Found some cheap flights to Amsterdam from Doncaster Sheffield Airport, wondering if I might go "heat chasing" on the continent next week. But then I realise I would have to find somewhere to stay, which would be expensive, so thought against it. Real shame though, would be nice to experience some real heat.

In South Yorkshire it looks like a very ordinary warm blip/spell with temps up to 25 degrees so nothing unusual and nowhere near as above average as the cold crap last week was below average (high of 10 here). 

Edited by Thundershine
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24 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

Found some cheap flights to Amsterdam from Doncaster Sheffield Airport, wondering if I might go "heat chasing" on the continent next week. But then I realise I would have to find somewhere to stay, which would be expensive, so thought against it. Real shame though, would be nice to experience some real heat.

In South Yorkshire it looks like a very ordinary warm blip/spell with temps up to 25 degrees so nothing unusual and nowhere near as above average as the cold crap last week was below average (high of 10 here). 

Just wait and see...you might be pleasantly surprised, never over read models or people on that thread.

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47 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

Found some cheap flights to Amsterdam from Doncaster Sheffield Airport, wondering if I might go "heat chasing" on the continent next week. But then I realise I would have to find somewhere to stay, which would be expensive, so thought against it. Real shame though, would be nice to experience some real heat.

In South Yorkshire it looks like a very ordinary warm blip/spell with temps up to 25 degrees so nothing unusual and nowhere near as above average as the cold crap last week was below average (high of 10 here). 

Wouldn’t go to Amsterdam for heat. London or Paris should be good!

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Looking like a really good summers week coming up in my area,not to hot,dry,bit of sun,can't fault it at all. Much better than the awful weather that was showing a couple of days ago,that heat has gone and a good proper UK summers week is here at last!? 

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1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

If that's what is expected on Wednesday I think the UK record is achievable albeit still a long shot on Friday/Saturday

Considering the models don’t have the really hot uppers arriving until Thursday, one would think so! Several other factors will also come into play though.

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18 hours ago, matty007 said:

I would say it's pretty much impossible for 38.5c to be beaten in late June. We are talking the all time record here, not a month record. July 1st was indeed a very potent plume, but still 'only' managed 36.7c. That is almost 2 degrees off the all time record. Doesn't sound much, but when you're talking about the UK, that extra 2 degrees is very hard to obtain. Would 38.5c have been beaten in July 2015 if the airmass had stayed for another few days...possible, but difficult in early July. 

To get close to, or breach, 40c in the UK you need an absolute perfect setup, and I mean perfect. Perfect wind direction, highest uppers possible, warm ground temps. Late July/early August is when the surface is at it's hottest, and you 100% need that at full strength to threaten 40c. 

 

To achieve 36.7°C in such a brief period of time was extraordinary.  In a warming climate it's only a matter of time before the first 40°C is recorded.  I imagine reaching the mid 30s will become commonplace in the coming decades.

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I do not believe that is right what the meto say temperature wise,to high temps Monday to wed, those temps will be more like that Thursday to Saturday, current models show hottest Thursday to sat so if meto temps are right I would presume the record would go by Saturday 

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22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And 34 in London!!

Thats mid 90s f..

Wonder what night temps will be like??

Warmer than the day temps at the top of Scotland I expect?!

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26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WOWZERS!!! 

31 in manchester !! Got to be close to records for June?

It was 31C last June (26th I think). It's worth remembering that Manchester does pretty well if the flow is from the SE, as hot as places a lot further south (except the SE of course).

Edited by Scorcher
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Here's the NetWx temps for next week. Only as a comparison, plenty to resolve still.

 viewimage.thumb.png.ec77e3c96d621ff903c1c139e29a1fd5.png 222651286_viewimage(1).thumb.png.ef68ce4d3a00e4f32d76d4f351fa4d03.png 1988419640_viewimage(2).thumb.png.dfbd32362513c396011be5a316e1f135.png 17956172_viewimage(3).thumb.png.804de6a2f0ec95c1c5b8f1eeaf16dbf9.png 1245285893_viewimage(4).thumb.png.9221895d561122727abeb6d85f5cd8a7.png

Edited by Mapantz
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