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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I can understand that train of thought although thunderstorm forecasting can be like snow forecasting and events appear at short notice...

I can understand also if people don't like the heat next week, it won't be good for sleeping unless we get a keen easterly breeze. Thunderstorms and snow are my favourite forms of weather but severe cold and heatwaves come with some risk to the vulnerable. 

First and foremost I'm a severe weather lover. Storms, gales, blizzards and the like. I don't like the heat but I'll tolerate it if there's the promise of some decent storms. 

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

The op was a bit over the top compared to the ensembles. Its gonna be horrible working in that next week . Just hope the thunderstorms kick in big time . 

17E12A8D-06BE-49BD-AAF1-94FECEA9C864.png

I will be working in a catering van cooking thai food and frying starters hehe. 

Last year on July 27th it was 52c in the van. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

First and foremost I'm a severe weather lover. Storms, gales, blizzards and the like. I don't like the heat but I'll tolerate it if there's the promise of some decent storms. 

Aye, it was thunderstorms that got me into the weather in the first place. It was a weekend during the summer of 1994 I think, we had a bolt of lightning which struck a tree behind my house and it terrified me. I was scared of thunderstorms for years as I was only 5 at the time. However that storm was what started my curiousity about the weather.

So severe weather is good from my weather enthusiasts point of view but it does worry me. We need the plume to spawn a low to our west to make this a thundery spell which at least is entirely possible (and the ECM shows this nicely).

Saying that Monday is also looking very interesting for storms here in the NE.

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6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Aye, it was thunderstorms that got me into the weather in the first place. It was a weekend during the summer of 1994 I think, we had a bolt of lightning which struck a tree behind my house and it terrified me. I was scared of thunderstorms for years as I was only 5 at the time. However that storm was what started my curiousity about the weather.

Similar to me. I used to be scared of thunderstorms when I was young after lightning hit a house nearby, In fact it was so close our TV aerial was bent afterwards even though it didn't hit the house itself. 

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Just now, matt111 said:

Similar to me. I used to be scared of thunderstorms when I was young after lightning hit a house nearby, In fact it was so close our TV aerial was bent afterwards even though it didn't hit the house itself. 

Yup and I remember a storm during the 1996 olympics as well that sticks in my memory. We was watching an event then the TV cut out and all the car alarms down the street went off. Still just as or perhaps even more enthusiastic about the weather today.

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup and I remember a storm during the 1996 olympics as well that sticks in my memory. We was watching an event then the TV cut out and all the car alarms down the street went off. Still just as or perhaps even more enthusiastic about the weather today.

From what I remember I was also watching TV but I was watching a video (remember them ?) with the TV unplugged from the aerial itself. Wouldn't like to think what would've happened if it was plugged in considering we ended up with a few sparks coming out of the wall where it would've been plugged in. Luckily no damage other than a bent aerial but the house that it hit had to have part of the roof replaced. 

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Forecasts are widely showing Paris hitting 37/38c in the middle part of next week. I know it’s further from the low and more directly under the plume, but I’d be amazed if London only got to around 30c. I’d certainly expect the June record of 35.6c to be under serious threat one the middle of next week if all goes to plan.

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Incredible charts today...yet there is a feeling of lingering doubt for me due to the forecasts such as the BBC not really going with anything exceptional. Is anyone finding this is affecting their excitement about this spell?

It would be perfect if the BBC and the Met Office for example were really on board with exceptional temperatures next week. Hopefully they are very wrong but there hasn't been a lot of change in the forecasts today.

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1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Incredible charts today...yet there is a feeling of lingering doubt for me due to the forecasts such as the BBC not really going with anything exceptional. Is anyone finding this is affecting their excitement about this spell?

It would be perfect if the BBC and the Met Office for example were really on board with exceptional temperatures next week. Hopefully they are very wrong but there hasn't been a lot of change in the forecasts today.

I never pay much attention to the BBC forecasts. They always seem to be pessimistic in setups such as this, especially outside a few days. 

Take what they are quoting and add 5-6c is usually my rule of thumb.  

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14 minutes ago, matty007 said:

I never pay much attention to the BBC forecasts. They always seem to be pessimistic in setups such as this, especially outside a few days. 

Take what they are quoting and add 5-6c is usually my rule of thumb.  

The Met Office forecast is even more pessimistic for these parts- the GFS is going for 26C on Monday around here and the Met Office are going for a max of 22C! They're also showing 21C for Tuesday- GFS is more like 27C at least!

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Tonights 18z decides to equal the all time June daily mean CET record on the 25th, with a 23C day (min ~17C, max ~29C). It ups things a notch on the 26th, beating the record by 1C (min~18.5C, max ~29.5C) Then for laughs, it gives us the warmest CET day ever recorded on the 27th, at 26.5C (max ~32C, min ~21C). Then it throws in a 23.5C (min ~20C, max ~27C) mean day on the 28th, coz why not!?

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On 16/06/2019 at 09:43, Sunny76 said:

I am aware of that lol. Latvian winters used to be minus 30-40, where as now it can be above 0 for a week or so at a time.

All I’m saying is, there’s still guaranteed snow every winter, despite the warmer climate.

Latvian winters have actually become milder since post 1981. I’m not sure if that’s a trend for the whole Eastern Europe region, but I didn’t think the warming was happening as far back at that. 


I remember being at meeting with my agronomist in the early eighties where the company giving the talk was a part of Shell agrochemicals.He said at the time that Shell scientists had already given Mrs Thatcher proof of global warming in the decades prior to the  late seventies. So warming has been around for a while

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On 19/06/2019 at 18:47, AderynCoch said:

No storms here either despite being under a warning. Has to happen eventually though. Only 2mm here so far this month, quite a contrast to May's total of 156.7mm. I came home on Saturday night to an orchestra of mosquitoes. A lot of villages in Slovakia along the Morava have pleaded for help to get rid of them.

It's getting hotter again next week but I don't see anything close to 40C being reached. Maybe 35C at day 9 but that's still a long way off.

We'll be saved from the worst here in the east thankfully though I still think western part of the Czech rep. will come close to 40C. France will probably break a lot of records.

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8 hours ago, Scorcher said:

The Met Office forecast is even more pessimistic for these parts- the GFS is going for 26C on Monday around here and the Met Office are going for a max of 22C! They're also showing 21C for Tuesday- GFS is more like 27C at least!

Indeed - looks very bizarre on the latest GFS also...showing max temps of 26 for me and high 20’s in Inverness middle next week.

E2F71D36-72B9-4026-A82D-CD2AB14D987E.thumb.png.cb81df815a016f25bb0f1b78b1be382d.png3DF03CBC-C95F-4394-906E-F5028EC4C0E3.thumb.png.9672a3dee98cf9412feb50ea53a63099.png

Then I check the Metoffice forecasts...

C5E0BEE9-5086-4485-8707-E6F7CD810363.thumb.png.56e1c01dc38f02a60a83c6650f20bacd.png838FD023-D099-44B8-BA33-A201BDD2F34C.thumb.png.cc6e44abaeeaebe1d47403c0d1356731.png

Is the GFS and other models leading us up the garden path with regards to how far North and West the heat makes it? 

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1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Indeed - looks very bizarre on the latest GFS also...showing max temps of 26 for me and high 20’s in Inverness middle next week.

E2F71D36-72B9-4026-A82D-CD2AB14D987E.thumb.png.cb81df815a016f25bb0f1b78b1be382d.png3DF03CBC-C95F-4394-906E-F5028EC4C0E3.thumb.png.9672a3dee98cf9412feb50ea53a63099.png

Then I check the Metoffice forecasts...

C5E0BEE9-5086-4485-8707-E6F7CD810363.thumb.png.56e1c01dc38f02a60a83c6650f20bacd.png838FD023-D099-44B8-BA33-A201BDD2F34C.thumb.png.cc6e44abaeeaebe1d47403c0d1356731.png

Is the GFS and other models leading us up the garden path with regards to how far North and West the heat makes it? 

I don't have access to the ECM surface temperature predictions but it would be interesting to see them and compare to what the GFS is showing. The worrying thing is that the Met Office have access to more data than we do so perhaps there's something showing up that we're not seeing?

The GFS is even hotter at the surface this morning for much of the country. It would be a huge disappointment if the Met Office predictions were true.

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36 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I don't have access to the ECM surface temperature predictions but it would be interesting to see them and compare to what the GFS is showing. The worrying thing is that the Met Office have access to more data than we do so perhaps there's something showing up that we're not seeing?

The GFS is even hotter at the surface this morning for much of the country. It would be a huge disappointment if the Met Office predictions were true.

Yes - would be great to see the ECM surface temperature predictions! 

Hopefully the Metoffice are just being cautious for the time being...but it’s a big worry currently! (I am/was looking forward to a couple or few mid 20’s degrees days next week.

BBC is pretty much the same as the Metoffice...

D09F53D6-D485-4F29-A830-650672397F8E.thumb.png.1399b990abfa3304314f1097733be92a.pngAF198E54-04E9-4A48-AA0B-BC79382BFAE0.thumb.png.0dd776558a4eb475757f1b2dfead5b6d.png

Hopefully GFS is spot on! We shall see.

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BBC and met office for Darlington next week

download.thumb.png.6fcfa8b7caac319fbefd22cef1e69f93.png

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Monday the warmest day of the week at 21c according to the BBC with the met office showing a high of 20c. 

I wonder if all the rain recently could prevent temps getting as high as they could have done say last summer when the ground was very dry?

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Met Office & BBC predicting just 28/29C for Central London on Wednesday & Thursday, yeah not happening, providing the models stay on track of course. If there's any spell of clear skies even just for a few hours the temperature will be shooting up to around 35C.

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the downgrades begun. maybe garden path time, to be honest, when charts are showing virtually impossible figures (eg dewpoints 24 to 27c)

then it's time to get sceptical. Is this the summer version of what happened back in February, remember, the day after tomorrow charts (most of the Uk, would get buried) that never happened

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These app forecasts are a complete waste of time!! However, an easterly will still have an impact on east coasts even with high uppers, I guess, and quite a long way inland if the winds are high.

So how hot next week?? Sorry, this is going to be a long post...

I'm keeping a keen eye from an IMBY situation. I think this could be massive for the south coast. Most models just do not see hot spells for my neck of the woods in the Solent, but as soon as a settled spell turns to a light flow from the E, ENE or NE, the highest temperatures are often found here or down the road in Bournemouth. So many times the Met Office forecast has been 6C or 7C too low even on the same morning!

And many model predictions are absolutely perfect for a South Hampshire heatwave. Last night's ECM, for instance, is unbeatable - light easterly, extreme upper air, pressure 1020mb, origin of air continental which had already been hot for days, probably not too much cloud interference:

ECM1-168.GIF?12  ECM0-168.GIF?12

Drawing comparisons with similar events of the past - 2018 - Last year, almost identical time of year, Gosport reached 33.2C on this chart. Lots of similarities in the flow / action of a cut-off low pumping air off the continent. But look in the difference in uppers - nearly 8C.

ECM1-0.GIF?12  ECM0-0.GIF?12 

I could allow for the fact that sea temperatures would have been higher, and ground drier - but even so, that would not compensate for an 8C difference in uppers. 

Now look at the temperatures the GFS forecast for 1st July 2018 just 36 hours before it happened!!!

image.thumb.png.279f9218d9aea91393a0350ef2042077.png  

wow - forecast temperature for the Gosport/Solent area, 22C; ACTUAL temperature, 33C!! It only started to catch up at T3 (though still not enough!!).

3-582PUK.GIF

On to 2014 - a little remembered hot spell, since it was only really hot on the south coast - the east wind kept temperatures down elsewhere. Locally (and in the SW), 31C was reached on these charts:

ECM1-0.GIF?12  ECM0-0.GIF?12

Slightly more favourable time of year, perhaps a more stable high, perhaps a little flow, but more of a North Sea element than 2018. Yet we were above 30C daily in the Solent that week in just 12C uppers. And the summer up to that date had been nothing special.

Going back to an even more famous event - look at the similarities with next week!! August 1995. 32C/33C recorded widely on the south coast on these charts.

archives-1995-8-2-12-0.png  archives-1995-8-2-12-1.png

Not a bad match for next week! Yet similar results to 2018: 16C uppers resulting in 33C. Again, we can factor in the hot weather before this date, exceptionally good sea temperatures. But can that really account for all the difference that will be made between the uppers in these situations, and the uppers forecast for next week?

So finally, I try to think - specifically for the Solent - have there been examples of high uppers not resulting in hot temperatures on an easterly flow at this time of year?

In all honesty, I can't think of any examples in mid-summer where a light easterly in settled conditions, which were preceded by some warm days, did not result in a 17C hike on the upper air temperature recorded except when under a frontal system or thundery activity. 

So to sum up ... I'm going to stick my neck out ... **IF** the most favourable models verify for next Thursday / Friday ... then I'm predicting a temperature of between 35C and 38C right here on the South Coast. ? 

Edited by Man With Beard
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18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Not often you see a Met Office broadcast go out as far Wednesday outside its 10 day trends and its livestream show 

 

I like Alex Deakin i feel he is an excellent forecaster with little or no bias transmitted ..

He has mentioned the words hot and humid and referenced night time sleeping difficulties so i wonder how warm it will be overnight..

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