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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I'll quite happily take a few days of 30+ temps if I get to see a good old fashioned thundery spell. A price well worth paying.

Last year bored the absolute t*ts off me.

Totally agree!...synoptically it was really dull to watch for a few months but great if you like dry, sunny and very warm conditions.

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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15 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Funny you should post what you did, as I was just thinking the other day that I thought I'd heard there was a slightly significant correlation between NAO in May and the following winter.

I have a strong gut feeling the upcoming winter will differ from what we've seen over the past few years. I just hope that means insanely cold rather than insanely wet!

Yes - I'm sure at some point in the past there was a MetO article discussing SSTs and linked pressure patterns in May with the winter to follow. Does Gav Partridge not discuss May in his thinking?

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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - I'm sure at some point in the past there was a MetO article discussing SSTs and linked pressure patterns in May with the winter to follow. Does Gav Partridge not discuss May in his thinking?

No idea mate. Not watched a Gav video for a while...I do seem to remember him discussing such things before though come to think about it.

I feel that we need to seize the opportunity this winter. We're at or will be just coming out of solar minimum and should see a descending E QBO.

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15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Here's the problem, using the May NAO NOAA data

2008: -1.73

2009: 1.68

2010: -1.49

and

1978: 1.08

1998: -1.32

Cant be bothered to do a proper count in detail right now - but what's interesting also is the apparent bunching of -NAO months around moments of the last 2 solar minimums. A lot in the 2008 - 12 bracket. A lot in the mid 90s. Not so clear to the naked eye in the 80s. But if low solar does indeed impact on the jet and perhaps pushes it south, then we can expect another cluster of -NAO figures over the next few years. Perhaps if I get bored over the weekend I'll do a tally of NAO signatures against solar cycle. I expect someone has already done it...but playing with stats and figures is always more enjoyable than just reading them...

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11 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

No it hasn't been 'cold' bar a few days last week in the rain with temps varying from 12 - 14c, for most of the 19 days of this month so far temps have either been just below or near average here (and I'm just north east of London)...too many people getting carried away with recent summers expected high maxes.

 

It has been a poor June (so far) in the London area, too. It wasn’t just a couple of chilly days. Many people have had the heating on (!) for over a week. No one is getting ‘carried away’ and I’m aware of the London average maximum temperature for June (21C), which has not been reached for the majority of days of this month, so far. The distinct lack of sunshine and rain haven’t helped, either.

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10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

No idea mate. Not watched a Gav video for a while...I do seem to remember him discussing such things before though come to think about it.

I feel that we need to seize the opportunity this winter. We're at or will be just coming out of solar minimum and should see a descending E QBO.

It’s definitely going to happen either this coming winter or late 2020. I can see a very cold December or January, or even a February taking people by surprise. Possibly a long extended cold wave similar to 1979, but if that came to pass I would be concerned more vulnerable people would suffer. Cold weather usually has a more negative effect on people when compared to heat. I know that plus 30 temps can be dangerous for some with heath issues also.

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3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

It has been a poor June (so far) in the London area, too. It wasn’t just a couple of chilly days. Many people have had the heating on (!) for over a week. No one is getting ‘carried away’ and I’m aware of the London average maximum temperature for June (21C), which has not been reached for the majority of days of this month, so far. The distinct lack of sunshine and rain haven’t helped, either.

Exactly. I wonder why some people on here want to sweep any talk about colder than average weather under the carpet, as if to suggest it doesn’t exist. Then, once we hit a warmer than average month, this cooler phase will be conveniently forgotten.

Its almost like trying to suggest we don’t get any cold weather anymore in our ‘warming climate’ and people like me and Staines, and the guy from hampshire(sorry mate, forgot your name?) have to remind people on here, that we still live in a predominantly cold country. Despite milder than average temps during any given year, it’s hardly what I call ‘life threatening high temperatures’ it’s just a cycle of very warm summery spells. This all gets cancelled out by chilly cloudy days, wet and eventually even cold snowy spells, like the one most people saw in Feb/March 2018 and some parts of the uk witnessed during January and early feb this year.

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Summer might be about to arrive with a bang as cape and humidity goes off the scale at its peak later next week

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.74dc4474c30723cd60b56a6795ab5d8f.png162-103UK.thumb.gif.2ee1f4ca7026660c327b9ebd26ed0da2.gif

ukcapeli.thumb.png.37be915ad64ceae1d1439de6bd5ab9b4.png180-103UK.thumb.gif.91afab68cdad6dd74edce3698a6ff89b.gif

Good. 

We need some proper hot weather for a few weeks.

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10 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Good. 

We need some proper hot weather for a few weeks.

We certainly do! Weeks of cold rain are no fun. Potential heat and violent thunderstorms are much more exciting. Fingers crossed that happens, won’t last long, whatever happens and hopefully the subsequent weather pattern is more settled/sunny.

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1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Exactly. I wonder why some people on here want to sweep any talk about colder than average weather under the carpet, as if to suggest it doesn’t exist. Then, once we hit a warmer than average month, this cooler phase will be conveniently forgotten

London is currently running 1c below its June average (and closer to 2c below the 30 year rolling average). It's had almost 200% of the June monthly rainfall, with a third of the month still remaining. It's also had just 86 hours of sunshine, which is terrible for the first 20 days of the month. Even with the upcoming sunny spell, it will struggle to even get near average.

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1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

We certainly do! Weeks of cold rain are no fun. Potential heat and violent thunderstorms are much more exciting. Fingers crossed that happens, won’t last long, whatever happens and hopefully the subsequent weather pattern is more settled/sunny.

Heat which usually is accompanied by humidity in this country isn't fun if you suffer with breathing problems/asthma...

St James Park, London is averaging so far to the 19th - 19.75c max average, so considering 21c is the max average for London and June I'd say probably running fractionally below average (Don't forget the month started very warm).

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St James's Park probably averages in the mid 21.x, like the London Weather Centre. 21c is for Heathrow and Kew.

Does anyone have the 1981-2010 averages for SJP, as I can't find them anywhere?

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Don't assume we all have the same weather in the UK. Parts of East Anglia are running warm in June. London is not much into the cool side. Coldest areas are Scotland, Ireland  and Dorset.

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_europe_t2m_week_anom.png

Then there is your individual location and habits. My high-hedged south-facing south-sloping garden gets 2-3C above some other local areas on sunny summer days. (Didn't know when we bought the house. We got lucky!) In this grey weather, it is running more in line with local temps that have been about 0.5C below normal so my max temps are sometimes running 2.5-3.5C down in the middle of grey days, and 24 hour averages are maybe pushing 1C down overall. As greyness has made the house a lot cooler and I do most of my gardening jobs in the middle of the day, June feels very cold to me, even though it is only modestly down overall in reality.

 

Edited by Aleman
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25 minutes ago, Aleman said:

Don't assume we all have the same weather in the UK. Parts of East Anglia are running warm in June. London is not much into the cool side. Coldest areas are Scotland, Ireland  and Dorset.

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_europe_t2m_week_anom.png

Then there is your individual location and habits. My high-hedged south-facing south-sloping garden gets 2-3C above some other local areas on sunny summer days. (Didn't know when we bought the house. We got lucky!) In this grey weather, it is running more in line with local temps that have been about 0.5C below normal so my max temps are sometimes running 2.5-3.5C down in the middle of grey days, and 24 hour averages are maybe pushing 1C down overall. As greyness has made the house a lot cooler and I do most of my gardening jobs in the middle of the day, June feels very cold to me, even though it is only modestly down overall in reality.

 

True...and that's the point it's what we have become use to, particularly in the south and east. Fact is we rarely get a cold summer CET month of 'modern' times and when we get a cold spell/snap as per last week on top of the last couple of months average temps it does tip a few over the edge.

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18 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

No storms here either despite being under a warning. Has to happen eventually though. Only 2mm here so far this month, quite a contrast to May's total of 156.7mm. I came home on Saturday night to an orchestra of mosquitoes. A lot of villages in Slovakia along the Morava have pleaded for help to get rid of them.

It's getting hotter again next week but I don't see anything close to 40C being reached. Maybe 35C at day 9 but that's still a long way off.

How contrasting to other parts of Slovakia, I guess me living just under the most thundery part of the country - Silicka Plateu we get thunderstorms regularly this week, like village of Bretka got insane 64mm rain in 2hrs, very moist humid air coming from Hungary does the job, very awkward for any outdoor planning, these can be very dangerous with insane lightning activity                                     

image.png

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Goodness me I'm excited about next week. The potential heat has me salivating and will almost have been worth suffering through months of absolute dross for.

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Heat which usually is accompanied by humidity in this country isn't fun if you suffer with breathing problems/asthma...

St James Park, London is averaging so far to the 19th - 19.75c max average, so considering 21c is the max average for London and June I'd say probably running fractionally below average (Don't forget the month started very warm).

No, but neither are cold and wet conditions fun to the many people suffering with joint and muscle complaints/diseases. And there are way more cold and wet days in the UK than hot and humid ones. This hot weather will only last a few days, at most. Might give some very interesting weather, too, with potentially severe thunderstorms. 

St.James’ Park might be reasonably close (but still over a degree under) average, I doubt Heathrow is, though.

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Yes but we still have 11 more days for those St James Park figures to run (as compiled by weatheronline) which are statistically warmer than the start of June so by months end we won't be more than 1c below normal...

Not disagreeing about how poor June is so far but I do think there's not so much of a case as regards temperatures in this part of the world, Alemans post above sort of sums it up really.

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3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes but we still have 11 more days for those St James Park figures to run (as compiled by weatheronline) which are statistically warmer than the start of June so by months end we won't be more than 1c below normal...

Not disagreeing about how poor June is so far but I do think there's not so much of a case as regards temperatures in this part of the world, Alemans post above sort of sums it up really.

Well temperature wise it’s not massively below average, that’s true for London but many other parts of the UK are in a different situation. The near constant rain and gloom have been notable in London, however.

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Just now, danm said:

Met Office app raw temps for Manchester around 22c for Tuesday/Wednesday. 27c/28c for London. 

Meteogroup Weather app forecast is now saying the following

MANCHESTER NEXT WEEK  (feels like temps in brackets)

Sunday - 21 (22)

Monday - 23 (26)

Tuesday - 23 (27)

Wednesday - 25 (28)

Thursday - 23 (25)

Friday -21 (23)

 

LONDON

Sunday - 25 (27)

Monday - 27 (31)

Tuesday - 28 (34)

Wednesday - 30 (37)

Thursday - 26 (30)

Friday -25 (28)

 

First week of July only 21  - 22 in London

 

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I'd be ignoring all temperature predictions for now, they will vary a huge amount from site to site. 

The bog standard iPhone weather app provided by the weather channel has 31/32/33/31c for London next Monday-Thursday, much more the sort of temperatures i'd expect to see if those uppers do make it here. I'd also expect a 35c+ somewhere too. Some people mentioning 38-40c as a possibility, but i think that's probably asking a bit too much with the humidity and unstable airmass potentially keeping a lid of sorts of temperatures that high.

Either way, it could end up one of the most oppressive and uncomfortable spells of hot weather to ever hit the UK. I will stand by that comment. Temperatures over 30c with dewpoints over 20c will give real feel temperatures close to 40c. Night time temps in the low 70s. It'll be gross.

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Heat which usually is accompanied by humidity in this country isn't fun if you suffer with breathing problems/asthma...

St James Park, London is averaging so far to the 19th - 19.75c max average, so considering 21c is the max average for London and June I'd say probably running fractionally below average (Don't forget the month started very warm).

No it really isn't though. UK warm spells don't have particularly high dew points. Try dewpoints 20+°C if you want to talk about humidity, almost unheard of in the UK even in warm spells. Europe outdoes us for higher dewpoints in the hot weather they get, even Sweden had dewpoints of 23°C last week, which is about higher than anywhere in the UK has ever recorded.

Looking through last summer's warmest days shows relative humidity average values lower than 50% in the UK (and this is compared to the mean temperature, not the max), which is dewpoints no higher than 11-12°C - not close to humidity when you think that places in the Midwest USA, and parts of Europe get dewpoints into the mid-20's.

Edited by Thundershine
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7 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Meteogroup Weather app forecast is now saying the following

MANCHESTER NEXT WEEK  (feels like temps in brackets)

Sunday - 21 (22)

Monday - 23 (26)

Tuesday - 23 (27)

Wednesday - 25 (28)

Thursday - 23 (25)

Friday -21 (23)

 

LONDON

Sunday - 25 (27)

Monday - 27 (31)

Tuesday - 28 (34)

Wednesday - 30 (37)

Thursday - 26 (30)

Friday -25 (28)

 

First week of July only 21  - 22 in London

 

Weather apps need to be taken with a huge dose of salt when it comes to temperature projections, they are liable to be many degrees out given certain circumstances. 

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That's good for Manchester really,  On the models I tend to look at the 9am temperatures,  position of Low next to Ireland, how far north 9am temperatures are.   That time of day really is an indicator for weather 2 or 3 days around it.

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