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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Fun facts -  because we all know I'm only really waiting for the next winter to arrive.

May 2019 was extraordinary for one factor in particular - namely the depth of the -NAO. After what felt like a never ending spell of +NAO setups for the most part (only 2 x -NAO months since end of summer 17 until we hit May this year) we hit a very low figure of -2.62. This is the lowest recorded May NAO score on NOAA records going back to 1950.

Cross reference this with seasonal impacts going forward. There is a theory out there that the NAO setup in May is an indicator of patterns for the following winter. So - which years had a May NAO of -1.5 or less? Answer:

2017, 2010, 2008, 1995, 1990, 1980, 1968.

Common theme here? None of the following DJF CET scores were higher than 1.6 and all bar 2 (1980/81 and 2017/18) were below 1. 

Just saying....and most definitely not a winter forecast.

I love your posts catacol, but I just can't get in to those 'indicator' routines. The OPI was similar, wasn't it? 

If someone is prepared to spend the time doing it, I suspect you could find some correlation with the AO/NAO and seasons, with every single month of the year.

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

Posted Images

16 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I love your posts catacol, but I just can't get in to those 'indicator' routines. The OPI was similar, wasn't it? 

If someone is prepared to spend the time doing it, I suspect you could find some correlation with the AO/NAO and seasons, with every single month of the year.

Ha - totally agree. Stats can prove anything. And yet we are yet to see a mild winter follow a very negative and blocked May in the last 78 years. Cue the year that now breaks the pattern.... ?

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Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
2019 144 (up to 18th June)
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180 

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9 hours ago, DonnaThw said:

Just seen this, wouldn’t this be interesting (it isn’t the express )  they said that the thunderstorms heading our way tonight have got an unusual spinning cell in them like the storms in America. It would cause a lot of trouble I’m sure and if  it did ever happen but what a thing to see. 

1AA79DD4-B513-45E6-90FE-EF4F9BDF6C81.png

Sounds like a supercell, which could cause daytime darkness. Trust my luck to be away from the uk lol. 

Then again, it might not happen.

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6 hours ago, Catacol said:

Ha - totally agree. Stats can prove anything. And yet we are yet to see a mild winter follow a very negative and blocked May in the last 78 years. Cue the year that now breaks the pattern.... ?

Funny you should post what you did, as I was just thinking the other day that I thought I'd heard there was a slightly significant correlation between NAO in May and the following winter.

I have a strong gut feeling the upcoming winter will differ from what we've seen over the past few years. I just hope that means insanely cold rather than insanely wet!

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7 hours ago, Catacol said:

There is a theory out there that the NAO setup in May is an indicator of patterns for the following winter. 

 

Here's the problem, using the May NAO NOAA data

2008: -1.73

2009: 1.68

2010: -1.49

and

1978: 1.08

1998: -1.32

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12 hours ago, daz_4 said:

Jesus, the next week will be hell on earth in Europe. We are on track to have the warmest June since the measurements began 244 years ago.

Possibly a bit too warm, even for me next week. But I have to say how amazingly wonderful June has been in Prague, so far. Loads of warm sunshine and several bouts of impressive thunderstorms that dumped a fair amount of rain, each time. There’s just no comparison to the misery that June has been in the UK, so cold and wet there. 

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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Here's the problem, using the May NAO NOAA data

2008: -1.73

2009: 1.68

2010: -1.49

and

1978: 1.08

1998: -1.32

Wasn’t May 1981 quite chilly? The following winter was very cold, especially December 81 and January 1982. February was milder than average though. 

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2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Possibly a bit too warm, even for me next week. But I have to say how amazingly wonderful June has been in Prague, so far. Loads of warm sunshine and several bouts of impressive thunderstorms that dumped a fair amount of rain, each time. There’s just no comparison to the misery that June has been in the UK, so cold and wet there. 

I see there’s a storm forecast for Friday in my part of Latvia. That’s all I need for my flight home. I’ll feel like Roger Moore in Moonraker! Yes, the G force scene lol.

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3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Possibly a bit too warm, even for me next week. But I have to say how amazingly wonderful June has been in Prague, so far. Loads of warm sunshine and several bouts of impressive thunderstorms that dumped a fair amount of rain, each time. There’s just no comparison to the misery that June has been in the UK, so cold and wet there. 

Well it hasn't been cold in the south east but nearer normal...that weather map displayed the other day by Nick Miller (I think) showed that...and even that map I think was a bit OTT in depth of cold for June up to then (for central parts) not just for those few cold very wet days of a week ago.

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21 hours ago, Azazel said:

I don't think 20 degrees, dry and some sunshine is way too high of an exception for June.

9 degrees, endless grey skies and lashings of rain is something I would associate with November-March.

9 degrees now!!...blimey you're temperatures are getting even colder, can't help feeling you're over exaggerating. 

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4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

9 degrees now!!...blimey you're temperatures are getting even colder, can't help feeling you're over exaggerating. 

9.5 last Tuesday. To round it down by half a degree is hardly hyperbole, but fine - 10 degrees, endless grey skies and lashings of rain is something I would associate with November-March. Is that better?

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well it hasn't been cold in the south east but nearer normal...that weather map displayed the other day by Nick Miller (I think) showed that...and even that map I think was a bit OTT in depth of cold for June up to then (for central parts) not just for those few cold very wet days of a week ago.

It’s been horrible for most of June, what are you on about?

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It’s raining here again but it is incredibly humid around 91% at the moment it’s very humid  in the house. 

Because we live right on the SE coast we could see the storm advancing for hours. My husband said it’s some of the worst Thunder and lightning he has ever seen. 

 

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28 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

It’s been horrible for most of June, what are you on about?

Temperature wise, I'm not talking what's falling from the sky, I bet the Met Office temp profile map for June comes out near normal for the SE at months end. Heat up next week now on the cards.

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2 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

It’s raining here again but it is incredibly humid around 91% at the moment it’s very humid  in the house. 

Because we live right on the SE coast we could see the storm advancing for hours. My husband said it’s some of the worst Thunder and lightning he has ever seen. 

 

We just missed out but the storms were to the east in the North Sea, but there were continuous lightning flashes and cloud to cloud bolts, 10th June 1994 was an absolute belter in the evening for storms which were more widespread and moved south to north.

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41 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Temperature wise, I'm not talking what's falling from the sky, I bet the Met Office temp profile map for June comes out near normal for the SE at months end. Heat up next week now on the cards.

It might do, though next week will have to be pretty warm for that to happen. Cloudy nights will also bump up figures. Good to see a significant warm up is being modelled, at least. About time after these last few dreadful weeks.

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The WeatherPro app has picked up the signals. Last night it was showing a max of 26C for next week in London, now showing 29C on Wednesday. I expect it'll soon be throwing up a 30C.

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4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I see there’s a storm forecast for Friday in my part of Latvia. That’s all I need for my flight home. I’ll feel like Roger Moore in Moonraker! Yes, the G force scene lol.

Sounds great, I hate boring smooth flights. Give me turbulence any day! I remember a flight in 2016 over the Persian Gulf with thunderstorms, turbulence all the way and lightning outside the window. It was a night flight, only thing that made me feel a bit sick was the awful pastry snack they served us which was a smell I could do without lol.

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7 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Possibly a bit too warm, even for me next week. But I have to say how amazingly wonderful June has been in Prague, so far. Loads of warm sunshine and several bouts of impressive thunderstorms that dumped a fair amount of rain, each time. There’s just no comparison to the misery that June has been in the UK, so cold and wet there. 

I guess Prague was lucky with storms. Always a lottery in summer. Next week looks horrible, especially if ECM has it right. 40C in June is unheard of.

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1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

I guess Prague was lucky with storms. Always a lottery in summer. Next week looks horrible, especially if ECM has it right. 40C in June is unheard of.

Another torrential thunderstorm as I write! After 30C sunshine. Fantastic. Though yes, 40C would be very unpleasant, even dangerous. Even the UK might join in with the warmth, this time. Can’t help think of the storms when the heat breaks ?

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1 hour ago, h2005__uk__ said:

The WeatherPro app has picked up the signals. Last night it was showing a max of 26C for next week in London, now showing 29C on Wednesday. I expect it'll soon be throwing up a 30C.

By far the best weather app out there – actually blends all the models and it infinitely superior to BBC/Apple Weather or any such guff

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