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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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Weather looking absolute balls for the foreseeable future - glimmer of hope if you believe in cosmic justice/law of averages etc. is that we're maybe getting the crap weather out the way now ready for a scorching mid-may - October spell.

 

Still worries me though.

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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As I’ve said in a different thread, May I think will finish below average, first time for over a year a month has been below average 

 

Edited by SunnyDazee
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Charts looking promising for the next week at least.  Perhaps a chance for nature to collect itself after what seemed like relentlessly above-average temps for the last couple of months.  Best of all - no more Warm Sunshine to put up with, for a little while at least.  ?

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Another summer like last year would be great. The South had it very hot but excessive heat seemed to stop around York, above which is still about 45% of the UK. For me, anything up to 28C is fine if not too humid. and maybe up to 15C at night. 7 days and 10 nights beat that at Yorkshire's most central Linton-on-Ouse Met station, with summer highs of 29.7C and 17.4C. A little to the north of that, Leeming saw it drop to 2 days and 6 nights, with highs of 28.9C and 17.2C. I only recall a few difficult nights for sleep and only a couple of days where it was still uncomfortable in shade. It was great barbie and beer garden weather. 1976 and 2006 were hotter up here, often being uncomfortable working, sleeping, driving and cycling. A repeat of 2018? Yes. please!

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03257&ano=2018&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03266&ano=2018&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

 

 

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4 hours ago, Sir Mim said:

Charts looking promising for the next week at least.  Perhaps a chance for nature to collect itself after what seemed like relentlessly above-average temps for the last couple of months.  Best of all - no more Warm Sunshine to put up with, for a little while at least.  ?

That’s quite depressing actually. Days or weeks of endless dull and grey is the worst kind of weather, especially when you enter late spring/early summer. 

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3 hours ago, Aleman said:

Another summer like last year would be great. The South had it very hot but excessive heat seemed to stop around York, above which is still about 45% of the UK. For me, anything up to 28C is fine if not too humid. and maybe up to 15C at night. 7 days and 10 nights beat that at Yorkshire's most central Linton-on-Ouse Met station, with summer highs of 29.7C and 17.4C. A little to the north of that, Leeming saw it drop to 2 days and 6 nights, with highs of 28.9C and 17.2C. I only recall a few difficult nights for sleep and only a couple of days where it was still uncomfortable in shade. It was great barbie and beer garden weather. 1976 and 2006 were hotter up here, often being uncomfortable working, sleeping, driving and cycling. A repeat of 2018? Yes. please!

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03257&ano=2018&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03266&ano=2018&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

 

 

I’m hoping for a warm to hot summer, but have a feeling it’s going to be a poor one, or leaning to the side of mediocre. Not a 2011 or 12, but maybe another one like 2017, which started off well, but deteriorated from mid July onwards. 

I’m calling a poor May, warm sunny June and early July, then poor again 

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4 hours ago, Aleman said:

Another summer like last year would be great. The South had it very hot but excessive heat seemed to stop around York, above which is still about 45% of the UK. For me, anything up to 28C is fine if not too humid. and maybe up to 15C at night. 7 days and 10 nights beat that at Yorkshire's most central Linton-on-Ouse Met station, with summer highs of 29.7C and 17.4C. A little to the north of that, Leeming saw it drop to 2 days and 6 nights, with highs of 28.9C and 17.2C. I only recall a few difficult nights for sleep and only a couple of days where it was still uncomfortable in shade. It was great barbie and beer garden weather. 1976 and 2006 were hotter up here, often being uncomfortable working, sleeping, driving and cycling. A repeat of 2018? Yes. please!

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03257&ano=2018&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03266&ano=2018&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

 

 

Where abouts in Yorkshire are you? Here 2018 was the warmest summer on record by some way, beating the previous warmest 2006 (itself marginally warmer than 1976) by a whole 0.4C. All three of the summer months were more than 1C above average, had 80% of average rainfall or less and 103% of average sunshine or more. We reached 30C for the first time in 17 years and 22 days surpassed 25C. Only 17 out of 92 days had rainfall >1mm and only 6 of those more than 5mm. It was truly an exceptional summer, perhaps about the best that is possible right now in this location.

It remained warm well into Autumn aswell, with a maxima of 24.8C and min of 18.8C (!) as late as the 13th October.

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5 hours ago, Aleman said:

Another summer like last year would be great. The South had it very hot but excessive heat seemed to stop around York, above which is still about 45% of the UK. For me, anything up to 28C is fine if not too humid. and maybe up to 15C at night. 7 days and 10 nights beat that at Yorkshire's most central Linton-on-Ouse Met station, with summer highs of 29.7C and 17.4C. A little to the north of that, Leeming saw it drop to 2 days and 6 nights, with highs of 28.9C and 17.2C. I only recall a few difficult nights for sleep and only a couple of days where it was still uncomfortable in shade. It was great barbie and beer garden weather. 1976 and 2006 were hotter up here, often being uncomfortable working, sleeping, driving and cycling. A repeat of 2018? Yes. please!

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03257&ano=2018&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03266&ano=2018&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

 

 

If we can have those conditions here, I'll take it, but I don't want a repeat of last year here - 20+C overnight with 70% humidity was awful.

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Like others, I have a nagging suspicion that this summer will be mediocre/poor also. The odds of a repeat of last year are statistically very small indeed. 

I really really hope I am proved wrong, as last year was probably my favourite Summer in the 26 years I’ve been alive. So consistent and prolonged. June 2018 is without a doubt my all time Summer month. Not a drop of rain where I live all month and constant sun with temps in the mid to high 20’s all month. It was bliss

I don’t think this Summer will be a washout, but a very average one. 

Edited by matty007
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got the boys coming round to do some maintenance on my AC unit next week ..top up the refrigerant etc so im good to go for those 30c+ days..think it could be stormy start to summer here.

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I'm not someone who usually clamours for warm weather, but good grief the first half of May is looking appalling. Having worked through the glorious Easter weekend, I was hoping this long weekend it would be nice weather - nah!

Tonight is my first "summer" night shift, but putting snow in forecasts is not something I wanted to have to do.

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8 hours ago, Nick L said:

I'm not someone who usually clamours for warm weather, but good grief the first half of May is looking appalling. Having worked through the glorious Easter weekend, I was hoping this long weekend it would be nice weather - nah!

Tonight is my first "summer" night shift, but putting snow in forecasts is not something I wanted to have to do.

The 00z runs confirm your musings Nick.

Utterly ghastly, the Greeny high is an absolute pain !

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3 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Great looking charts this morning. And about time too. 

We desperately need some rain down here. 

 

Yeah, but not too much. I’ll agree it’s been very dry. 

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16 hours ago, matty007 said:

Like others, I have a nagging suspicion that this summer will be mediocre/poor also. The odds of a repeat of last year are statistically very small indeed. 

I really really hope I am proved wrong, as last year was probably my favourite Summer in the 26 years I’ve been alive. So consistent and prolonged. June 2018 is without a doubt my all time Summer month. Not a drop of rain where I live all month and constant sun with temps in the mid to high 20’s all month. It was bliss

I don’t think this Summer will be a washout, but a very average one. 

Yeah that’s how I feel. I really think it could well be the first summer to struggle reaching 30-32c, and even if we reach it, I can see many weeks of dull dreary weather with temps between 20-23c, but without the sun it will feel cool for high summer. 

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On 01/05/2019 at 17:41, reef said:

Where abouts in Yorkshire are you? Here 2018 was the warmest summer on record by some way, beating the previous warmest 2006 (itself marginally warmer than 1976) by a whole 0.4C. All three of the summer months were more than 1C above average, had 80% of average rainfall or less and 103% of average sunshine or more. We reached 30C for the first time in 17 years and 22 days surpassed 25C. Only 17 out of 92 days had rainfall >1mm and only 6 of those more than 5mm. It was truly an exceptional summer, perhaps about the best that is possible right now in this location.

It remained warm well into Autumn aswell, with a maxima of 24.8C and min of 18.8C (!) as late as the 13th October.

I'm in the Vale of York. I note from Met office anomaly map for summer that Hull stands out with a few pixels at +1.5C while the +1.0C isotherm dips into the top end of the Vale of York so there is a bit of a gradient in the anomaly there from SE to NW. You probably got the best of the heat in Yorkshire last summer - though I think that would only make a marginal difference to interpetations.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts

I was talking about 2006 from memory but I've looked back at Leeming's data and it seems my memory must be just July. I totted up the daily averages for July 2006 and 2018 and got 2006 higher by 19.3C to 18.6C, so significantly warmer. However,  I've not totted up June and August since I can't be bothered because I can easily see that they are both lower by a significant amount.

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03266&ano=2006&mes=8&day=10&hora=10&min=0&ndays=50

So, it seems, you are correct that 2018 has the higher average temperature over the 3 month summer period and my memory of a hotter 2006 might be just July or thereabouts, highlighted by breaching 30C twice when we did not manage that this time . However, another factor might be humidity. I remember 2006 being much more sticky. I might feel it as heat discomfort even if it was not actually a higher temperature. One of the reasons I'd be very pleased to see a repeat of last year would be the fact that it was a drier heat that many previous warm summers - at least that's how I remember it.

As for 1976, I have no data to back that up and I was living in the Pennines. I just remember dry, baking heat from May to September, with the ground being constantly cracked and dusty. My friends and I were too hot and thirsty all the time to play football or cricket and constantly seeking shade, drink and ice pops. I'd sometimes buy two pints of milk and drink one, hand the bottle back and walk away drinking the second. I also recall being so hot we that played in becks, drank from horse troughs and the roads often melted and left tar on our shoes and bike tyres. (The tar thing is interesting. I don't remember much in the way of melted roads last summer but do for 1976 and 2006 but other weather factors might come into play and road tarmac is quite likely to vary over time as well. Tar bubbled up from under cobbles in 1976 and 2006 but I didn't notice that anywhere last year. That would be the same tar, I presume.) In my memory, nothing since comes close to the extended dry heat of 1976. If anyone can show me data to prove 2018 was a hotter summer than 1976, I'll simply not believe the data. Changes in temperature probes, urban heat effects and other adjustments they have to make to historic data mean there is some wiggle room in there. I'd like to see summer 2018 repeated. 1976, I would not!

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20 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah that’s how I feel. I really think it could well be the first summer to struggle reaching 30-32c, and even if we reach it, I can see many weeks of dull dreary weather with temps between 20-23c, but without the sun it will feel cool for high summer. 

Gawd I hope not. Even 2012 managed to scrape 30C lol.

The CFS has had a severe bout of the squits for May and June for the last few runs, but keeps showing repeated plume scenarios through July and August so maybe that'll be our summer state this year - shorter phases of high pressure moving east followed by plumes. I'd take that. The heat haters won't like it due to humidity but it'd be more interesting meteorologically than long periods of anticyclonic conditions like last year, as lovely as it was.

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4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Gawd I hope not. Even 2012 managed to scrape 30C lol.

The CFS has had a severe bout of the squits for May and June for the last few runs, but keeps showing repeated plume scenarios through July and August so maybe that'll be our summer state this year - shorter phases of high pressure moving east followed by plumes. I'd take that. The heat haters won't like it due to humidity but it'd be more interesting meteorologically than long periods of anticyclonic conditions like last year, as lovely as it was.

Maybe that will mean more thunderstorms. 

The early 80s summers were cool with short bursts of hot weather, which can lead to violent thundery spells.

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I've got a text from my sister at 8am that said it was snowing. She lives at Aberdeen so effectively that is sea level. That must be pretty unusual. Radar is showing quite a few snow showers over the Highlands and a bit of sleet over the top of the Yorkshire Pennines and even the Peak District. It looks like I'll have to bring my seedlings back into the house in this afternoon - but some stuff is already planted out! ?

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