Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I think there is a variety of levels of tolerance of both heat and humidity and cold within any population, but there is a point at which the body cannot sweat or radiate enough heat to maintain a healthy body temperature.  In most cases, that is not a problem, but the combination of high heat and humidity makes many feel genuinely unwell before it becomes a risk to life.

[snowray]

5 hours ago, Azazel said:

Beautiful January morning out there. Estate is already underwater.

Although temps at 12 noon of 11/12/13c in central areas are on the cold side compared to what we would expect these days in early January....

Edited June 7, 2019 by snowray

[Sunny76]

Only 12 degrees at St Paul’s and raining. 

This is terrible weather for June in the southeast. 

On the plus side pollution levels are probably quite good.

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I think there is a variety of levels of tolerance of both heat and humidity and cold within any population, but there is a point at which the body cannot sweat or radiate enough heat to maintain a healthy body temperature.  In most cases, that is not a problem, but the combination of high heat and humidity makes many feel genuinely unwell before it becomes a risk to life.

I for one, cannot abide excessive heat and humidity, especially when, as was the case last Sunday, it comes in short burst, so as I never have time to acclimate.

Last summer was fine though.

[mb018538]

Abysmal day for June across many areas. It's been on the cards for a while, and is here, with no end in sight.

Those few crazy people that enjoy summers with temperatures in the mid teens and plenty of cloud and rain will  be rejoicing.

For the 99% of the rest of the population who enjoy a bit of sun and some warmth after the winter months it's dreadful.

[weatherguru14]

I still remember 2007 following on from the great summer of 2006. My garden was like a swamp it rained that much.From my recollection of 2012. It wasn't overly wet just not very warm. we had a brief spell of summer in the last 10 days of July ending into the first week of August. apart from that diddly squat. I don't think May was that bad overall. coulda been worse coulda been better. June is well terrible so far.

[B87]

The forecast for this June looks worse than June 2007. At least that month had near average temperatures to go with the gloom and rain.

I just looked at the WO forecast, and to the 20th the average high for this month will be just 17.7c. Almost unthinkable. The coldest June on record in London had an average high of 17.5c.

[cheeky_monkey]

37 minutes ago, B87 said:

The forecast for this June looks worse than June 2007. At least that month had near average temperatures to go with the gloom and rain.

I just looked at the WO forecast, and to the 20th the average high for this month will be just 17.7c. Almost unthinkable. The coldest June on record in London had an average high of 17.5c.

Have to say looking at the GFS it looks pretty grim for you guys for the next 2 weeks..however its no better over here..cold and wet today with chance of sleet and snow..warms up some next week then gets cold and wet again thereafter

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I for one, cannot abide excessive heat and humidity, especially when, as was the case last Sunday, it comes in short burst, so as I never have time to acclimate.

Last summer was fine though.

I think heat is worse in a poor summer, as opposed to when exposed to it for a longer period, ie 3-6 weeks at a time. 

I can understand how people find it uncomfortable, but the cool and dull regime is difficult to accept.

[Sunny76]

Maybe a shift to a La Niña? 

[Summer Sun]

Here's where summer is

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Heat lovers: Lahore, Pakistan is for you - temps overnight barely fall below 30C, And in July barely fall below 35C for the whole month.

 

[B87]

What are people's predictions/guesses for what will happen in July and August? Will summer appear at all in June, or will we have to wait until July?

Which of these summers with bad Junes do you think we will get a repeat of: 1972, 1990, 1991, 1995, 2007, 2012, 2016?

I'm leaning towards 1972 or 2007.

Edited June 7, 2019 by B87

[Sunny76]

21 minutes ago, B87 said:

What are people's predictions/guesses for what will happen in July and August? Will summer appear at all in June, or will we have to wait until July?

Which of these summers with bad Junes do you think we will get a repeat of: 1972, 1990, 1991, 1995, 2007, 2012, 2016?

I'm leaning towards 1972 or 2007.

Yeah, I’m going for a 2007 or 1972, or maybe even a 1980. That June was poor and it was followed by a cold July. 

[Weather-history]

20 minutes ago, B87 said:

What are people's predictions/guesses for what will happen in July and August? Will summer appear at all in June, or will we have to wait until July?

Which of these summers with bad Junes do you think we will get a repeat of: 1972, 1990, 1991, 1995, 2007, 2012, 2016?

I'm leaning towards 1972 or 2007.

Not sure June 1995 was that bad, infact it was a dry June and the last few days were summery.

[B87]

47 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Not sure June 1995 was that bad, infact it was a dry June and the last few days were summery.

The first half of that month was worse than many Aprils! Overall it was poor, mostly cool and grey.

[B87]

We might go 16 years in a row since our last properly good August.

After 2003, the only other one that came close was 2016. 2009, 2012 were average, 2013 and 2018 were warm but cloudy.

With this month looking like it will fail to even see a 19c average high, either July or August will have to be hot to get the summer back to average, let alone the 1-1.5c above normal that the MO are predicting. I can't see it happening.

Edited June 7, 2019 by B87

[Sunny76]

29 minutes ago, B87 said:

The first half of that month was worse than many Aprils! Overall it was poor, mostly cool and grey.

Yeah, it was quite chilly, following the cold May. Although early May 95 started hot, and the last few days of June 95 saw a return to warm and hot conditions.

Summer 95 was sunny and warm for many weeks until the end of August. 1995 and 2018 stand out for me as summers with very long spells of uninterrupted sunny days, with the odd cloudy one. 

[cheeky_monkey]

43 minutes ago, B87 said:

We might go 16 years in a row since our last properly good August.

After 2003, the only other one that came close was 2016. 2009, 2012 were average, 2013 and 2018 were warm but cloudy.

With this month looking like it will fail to even see a 19c average high, either July or August will have to be hot to get the summer back to average, let alone the 1-1.5c above normal that the MO are predicting. I can't see it happening.

be happy with an average August ..i will be back in the UK for 2 weeks from the 19th..a repeat of Aug 98 would do..."very sunny, dry and rather cool"

[Sunny76]

2009 was cloudy with only a few warm sunny days here and day. Summer 2009 started off well, but July was poor and August was disappointing. 2010 was similar, as the June was fairly warm and sunny, but July was less settled and August was cool.

The only decent Augusts since 1995 are, 2003, 2013, 2016 and 2018. 

13 and 18 had cooler and cloudier periods, but both Augusts were fairly sunny and both had hot periods. 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

What are people's predictions/guesses for what will happen in July and August? Will summer appear at all in June, or will we have to wait until July?

Which of these summers with bad Junes do you think we will get a repeat of: 1972, 1990, 1991, 1995, 2007, 2012, 2016?

I'm leaning towards 1972 or 2007.

I think it might settle a little towards the end of June but nothing impressive or summery until mid July. Think July could see a couple of hot spells with thunderstorms but I reckon August will be the best summer month, this year.

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

The first half of that month was worse than many Aprils! Overall it was poor, mostly cool and grey.

It was dependent where you were in the country though, for instance for my region it was the sunniest June for 20 years and one of the sunniest on record for western Scotland. Western areas did far better.

Put it this way I take June 1995 over any of the other Junes in your list. Rainfall wise, it is comfortably to way ahead of the others in dryness,

[Sir Mim]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

I think it might settle a little towards the end of June but nothing impressive or summery until mid July. Think July could see a couple of hot spells with thunderstorms but I reckon August will be the best summer month, this year.

 

If that came off it would resemble summer of 1997, at least in terms of broad outlines - a wet cool june, followed by a mixed July with some dry hot spells with August being the standout month heat-wise.

 

I'm certainly hoping we don't see a repeat of August 1997's weather - horrible tropical heat that year.

[B87]

5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

be happy with an average August ..i will be back in the UK for 2 weeks from the 19th..a repeat of Aug 98 would do..."very sunny, dry and rather cool"

August 1998 actually had average temperatures here, but was drier and sunnier than normal. I'd take an average July/August combination, something like 2004 or 2005.

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

If we get a poor summer, I’m hoping this leads to a bitter snowy winter.

But, it could very well be another 1988, with a poor summer bookended by mild winters. Yuck!

What's perhaps significant is the fact that the past month or so has seen a big departure from the generally +NAO set up we've seen over the past few years. I don't even want to go into what this could mean for winter but it's a relief to break out of the +NAO rut, even if it does turn out to be a (major) blip.